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WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 25, 2011 1:30 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygsb42:

I don't think CIN will have a playoff spot clinched before the 4 PM games, as OAK and DEN will be playing their games in the same time slot.  The NFL also decided to make things more interesting by adding the PIT/CLE game in the 4 PM time slot.  

 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 25, 2011 12:14 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Kellynmatt, well done. I got almost exactly the same. In this particular slate of scenarios, ties aren't hard to add in either, as in general CIN must lose outright in all the #6 seed scenarios and trailing teams must win outright to stay in it. Also, someone mentioned earlier the concept of competitive disadvantage etc, and I think having the CIN vs BAL game as a late game doesn't make sense, because Baltimore could end up playing an already clinched bengals team in their quest for the afc north title. I really think it ought to be the wild card pertinent games in the early slot, and the afc west deciding games in the late slot.



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 25, 2011 12:07 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Here's how I see the NFC

Seed 1
  • If Green Bay wins either game or San Francisco loses to St. Louis, Green Bay is the #1 seed.
  • If Green Bay loses to Chicago and Detroit and San Francisco beats St. Louis, San Francisco is #1 seed on common opponents.
Seed 2
  • If Green Bay does not get the #1 seed, they will be the #2 seed.
  • If Green Bay wins one game and San Francisco wins against St. Louis, San Francisco is the #2 seed.
  • If San Francisco loses to St. Louis and New Orleans wins out, New Orleans is the #2 seed
Seed 3
  • If New Orleans loses either game or San Francisco wins, New Orleans will be the #3 seed
  • If San Francisco loses to St. Louis and New Orleans wins out, San Francisco is the #2 seed
Seed 4
  • The winner of the NY Giants-Dallas game will be the #4 seed
Seed 5
  • If Detroit and Atlanta finish with the same record, Atlanta is the #5 seed
  • If Atlanta loses both or they lose one and Detroit beats Green Bay, Detroit is the #5 seed
Seed 6
  • If Detroit and Atlanta finish with the same record, Detroit is the #6 seed
  • If Chicago beats Green Bay & Minnesota, but Atlanta loses to New Orleans & Tampa Bay, Chicago is the #6 seed, otherwise the worse record of Detroit and Atlanta is the #6 seed
 



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 25, 2011 12:05 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygsb42:

I can confirm your numbers for the NYJ/OAK/TEN SoV for the #6 seed.  I didn't run the full Sov analysis before my previous post, but when I did, I have the same numbers you have.  OAK has a minumum of 63 with  62 max for TEN and 58 max for NYJ.  So it appears OAK has clinched that SoV

 



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: December 24, 2011 11:48 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

OK, this is how I see it in the AFC.

Seeds 1,2, and 5
Three games could have an impact on these seeds.  New England-Buffalo, Baltimore-Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh-Cleveland.

If New England wins, they are the #1 seed.
  • In this scenario, if Baltimore wins or Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore is the #2 seed (and Pittsburgh is the #5 seed).
  • If Cincinnati beats Baltimore and Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh is the #2 seed (and Baltimore is the #5 seed).
If New England loses
  • If Baltimore wins, they are the #1 seed (and New England is the #2 seed and Pittsburgh is the #5 seed).
  • If Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh is the #1 seed (and New England is #2 and Baltimore is #5).
  • If Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh loses, New England is the #1 seed (and Baltimore is #2 and Pittsburgh is #5).
HOUSTON IS THE #3 SEED

Seed #4

If Denver wins, they are the #4 seed.
If Denver loses, then Oakland is the #4 seed if they win.
If Denver and Oakland both lose, Denver is the #4 seed.

Now for the wackiness that is the #6 seed. If Cincinnati wins, they are the #6 seed.  But if Cincinnati loses (to a motivated Baltimore team), that is when the craziness ensues.
  • If Oakland (and Denver), NY Jets, and Tennessee all win, I have that Oakland would be #6 seed on SoV*
  • If Oakland (and Denver) and Tennessee all win, I have that Tennessee would be #6 seed on Common Opponents*
  • If Oakland (and Denver) and NY Jets all win, I have that Oakland would be #6 seed on head to head over the Jets*
  • If NY Jets and Tennessee both win, I have that Tennessee would be #6 seed on Common Opponents*
  • If Oakland (and Denver) only win (Tenn and Jets lose), Oakland would be the #6 seed on Conference Record
  • If NY Jets only win ([Oak or Den] and Tenn lose), I have that Tennessee would be #6 seed on Common Opponents
  • If Tennessee only wins ([Oak or Den] and Jets lose), I have Cincinnati as #6 seed on head to head over Tennessee
 *-Cincinnati would be eliminated at Conference Record in the first step
As for the SoV, the teams Oakland would have to total at least 62 (As Denver and the NY Jets would have had to win) and Tennessee could get at most 61, and that only if Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo all beat their playoff bound opponents.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 24, 2011 11:16 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Brett...i just looked at NE-BAL SOV quickly (at 11-5 with BAL win over CLE so BAL doesn't get a CIN win for worst case scenario).  Also....HOU tying wouldn't matter re: SOV since HOU-BAL-NE at 11-5 would go to HOU on conf record (9-3 vs 8-4 for NE, BAL).

At quick glance...i have BAL's minimum number of wins EQUALING NE's maximum number of wins for SOV.  So....looks like a number of game results this Saturday could easily lock up SOV for BAL.  Will check it out tomorrow as it could come into play this year.

I was on a plane all day today and unable to watch the games, so I figured out all the SoV scenarios between Baltimore and New England. I also had New England able to tie Baltimore in that specific scenario (the only one that now is still alive). However, when I went to SoS, Baltimore had already clinched that before today's games. Needless to say, Baltimore has now clinched SoV outright (getting 6 of 6 results in their favor today).


Before Week 16:

a)  12-4 each with NE win (vs. Mia) + NE loss (vs. Buf):
NE best case: 88-102 + 2 common results.
Bal worst case: 90-100 + 2 common results.

b)  12-4 each with NE loss (vs. Mia) + NE win (vs. Buf):
NE best case: 88-101 + 3 common results.
Bal worst case: 90-99 + 3 common results.

c)  11-5 each with Bal win (vs. Cle) + Bal loss (at Cin):
NE best case: 83-90 + 3 common results.  (+ 37-43 for best case SoS)
Bal worst case: 83-90 + 3 common results. (+ 39-41 for worst case SoS)

d)  11-5 each with Bal win (vs. Cle) + Bal loss (at Cin):
NE best case: 83-90 + 3 common results.
Bal worst case: 86-87 + 3 common results.


In scenario (c), NE needed 10 of 10 results, including Ind win (vs. Hou) on Thursday night. But, factoring in these 10 results, clinches SoS for Baltimore by 2 results.  Just for kicks, here are those ten results.

Week 16 (7 results)
Ind win (vs. Hou)
NYJ win (vs. NYG)
Den win (vs. Buf)
SD win (at Det)
Was win (vs. Min)
Pit loss (vs. StL)
SF loss (at Sea)

NE got the result they needed Thursday night, but they were 0 for 6 today.

Week 17 (3 results)
Dal win (at NYG)
Hou loss (vs. Ten)
Ari loss (vs. Sea)


I'll look at the Oak-Ten-NJY SoV next.




Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 10:48 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

2011 WEEK 17 AFC SEEDING POSSIBILITIES (assumes no ties occur):

Here are the AFC playoff seeding scenarios pending the results of the following Week 17 games:

Buf at NE 1:00 (CBS)
Ten at Hou 1:00 (CBS)
NYJ at Mia 1:00 (CBS)
Bal at Cin 4:15 (CBS)
Pit at Cle 4:15 (CBS)
KC at Den 4:15 (CBS)
SD at Oak 4:15 (CBS)

- SEEDS 1 & 2:

Winning team listed = Final AFC Seeding

NE BAL PIT = 1-NE, 2-BAL

NE BAL CLE= 1-NE, 2-BAL

NE CIN PIT = 1-NE, 2-PIT

NE CIN CLE= 1-NE, 2-BAL

BUF BAL PIT = 1-BAL, 2-NE

BUF BAL CLE = 1-BAL, 2-NE

BUF CIN PIT = 1-PIT, 2-NE

BUF CIN CLE= 1-NE, 2-BAL


- SEEDS 3 through 6:

Winning team listed = Final AFC Seeds

TEN NYJ CIN PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ CIN CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN NYJ BAL PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-OAK

TEN NYJ BAL PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN NYJ BAL PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN NYJ BAL PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN NYJ BAL CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-OAK

TEN NYJ BAL CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN NYJ BAL CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN NYJ BAL CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN MIA CIN PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA CIN CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA BAL PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN MIA BAL PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA BAL PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA BAL PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA BAL CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-TEN

TEN MIA BAL CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA BAL CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

TEN MIA BAL CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ CIN CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU NYJ BAL PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-OAK

HOU NYJ BAL PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-NYJ

HOU NYJ BAL PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-NYJ

HOU NYJ BAL PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-NYJ

HOU NYJ BAL CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-OAK

HOU NYJ BAL CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-NYJ

HOU NYJ BAL CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-NYJ

HOU NYJ BAL CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-NYJ

HOU MIA CIN PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-BAL, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA CIN CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA BAL PIT DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-OAK

HOU MIA BAL PIT DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA BAL PIT KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA BAL PIT KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA BAL CLE DEN OAK = 3-HOU, 4-DEN, 5-PIT, 6-OAK

HOU MIA BAL CLE DEN SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA BAL CLE KC OAK = 3-HOU, 4-OAK, 5-PIT, 6-CIN

HOU MIA BAL CLE KC SD = 3-HOU, 4-DEN 5-PIT, 6-CIN






Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 24, 2011 10:42 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

GW,
In that SoV scenario, OAK has it clinched.

I have them at 53 wins, but +7 for beating SD, +1 for DEN having to beat KC, +1 for NYJ having to beat MIA, +1 for CHI and MIN playing each other gives a min of 63 wins for OAK.

I have TEN at 45 wins currently (11 BAL + 8 DEN + 4 CLE + 2 IND + 6 CAR + 4 TB + 6 BUF + 4 JAX) +10 for beating HOU +1 for BAL beating CIN +1 for DEN beating KC +1 for JAX playing IND =58 min with 4 undecided = 62 max.

I have  NYJ at 47 wins, +5 for beating MIA = 52 max, +6 for undecided matchups (SD must lose to OAK and DEN must beat KC for this scenario to happen) = 58 max. So as I see it, there are no undecided SoV's left this year. What a shame Frown.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 24, 2011 10:08 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oh well, all those potential SoV scenarios I had for week 17 have been reduced to one SoV scenario, which is now the 3-way SoV at 9-7 with NYJ, OAK, and TEN.  Currently, for SoV, I have OAK at 53 wins with TEN and NYJ at 47 wins.  For that SoV scenario to occur, CIN needs to lose, then CIN drops out of the 4-way tie due to 6-6 conference record and DEN wins the AFCW at 9-7.

I sort of expected the NFL to move the DAL/NYG game to the 8:20 PM slot next Sunday, since it's a must win for both teams. 



Since: Sep 2, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 8:29 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

The Steelers game in Cleveland has been moved to a 4:15 pm kickoff to accommodate CBS. Ravens-Bengals also will be a 4:15 start


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com