Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 24, 2011 7:41 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

An interesting observation:
Given the uniqueness of TEN's scenarios having NYJ and OAK wins AND losses possible, and given the current game times next week, if TEN wins their game and CIN loses, TEN will be alive come the 4 oclock games no matter the outcome of the NYJ game but will be rooting for or against teams BASED on that outcome. Quite some bizarre scenarios for this year... 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 24, 2011 7:32 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe, 
I think the TEN scenarios should read Win and CIN loss and EITHER NYJ win and OAK or DEN loss/tie OR NYJ loss/tie and OAK win and DEN win. I'm pretty sure Denver matter based on whether OAK wins the division or not. 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 7:15 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

actually...CIN doesn't need TEN loss/tie



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 7:06 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

quick look....seems to match what has been said:

NYJ clinch with WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss/tie + Either OAK loss/tie Or DEN loss/tie

CIN clinch with WIN OR NYJ loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + Either OAK loss/tie Or  DEN loss/tie

OAK clinch division with WIN + DEN loss/tie (or with TIE + DEN loss)

OAK clinch playoff berth with WIN + CIN loss + Either TEN loss/tie Or NYJ win

TEN clinch with WIN + CIN loss + Either NYJ win or OAK win BUT NOT BOTH!

Does that make sense? 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 6:29 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

actually....meant "and DEN at 9-7"



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 6:29 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

yeah....either that or "and DEN better than 9-7"



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 6:12 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe, fine with me. But then we should have "... not winning the division" in Steps 2 and 3 too.


(IF SD LOSES):

The AFC #6 seed 9-7 checklist.

Step 1: CIN better than 9-7 -> #6 CIN

Step 2: TEN 9-7 AND Either NYJ 9-7 Or OAK 9-7 and not winning the division But Not Both 9-7 -> #6 TEN

Explanation: The Titans need either the Jets or the Raiders to leapfrog the Bengals due to the H2H loss and win the tiebreakers on common games against Jets or Raiders. But in case both the Jets and the Raiders are 9-7 common games is not applicable, so it goes down to SoV, which imho the Raiders already have clinched.


Step 3: OAK 9-7 and not winning the division -> #6 OAK

Step 4: NYJ 9-7 -> #6 NYJ

Step 5: -> #6 CIN



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 6:06 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Of course ... CIN loss ...

TEN:
1. win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
2. win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

OAK:
1. win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

NYJ:
1. win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
2. win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK win + DEN loss or tie



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 6:04 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

How about this wording Noob (IF SD LOSES):

The AFC #6 seed 9-7 checklist.

Step 1: CIN better than 9-7 -> #6 CIN

Step 2: TEN 9-7 AND Either NYJ 9-7 Or OAK 9-7 But Not Both 9-7 -> #6 TEN

Explanation: The Titans need either the Jets or the Raiders to leapfrog the Bengals due to the H2H loss and win the tiebreakers on common games against Jets or Raiders. But in case both the Jets and the Raiders are 9-7 common games is not applicable, so it goes down to SoV, which imho the Raiders already have clinched.


Step 3: OAK 9-7 -> #6 OAK

Step 4: NYJ 9-7 -> #6 NYJ

Step 5: -> #6 CIN

Will look at some more....



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 6:00 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

So I have this AFC wildcard clinching scenarios:

CIN:
1. win or tie
2. loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
3. loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN loss or tie

TEN:
1. win + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
2. win + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

OAK:
1. win + TEN loss or tie

NYJ:
1. win + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
2. win + TEN loss or tie + OAK win + DEN loss or tie



Ok, Chargers on the board now, maybe they still want to put a dent into this litte thingy here.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com