Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 5:47 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Of course there is the chance that Oakland can win the division at 9-7 if Denver loses or ties, so perhaps that could go into the scenarios?

In that case, just leave out Oakland. So in Step 2 only check if Jets are 9-7 and leave out Step 3.



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 5:41 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Maybe this way it is a bit easier to follow:

The AFC #6 seed 9-7 checklist.

Step 1: CIN not 9-7 -> #6 CIN

Step 2: TEN 9-7 and (either NYJ 9-7 or OAK 9-7) -> #6 TEN

Explanation: The Titans need either the Jets or the Raiders to leapfrog the Bengals due to the H2H loss and win the tiebreakers on common games against Jets or Raiders. But in case both the Jets and the Raiders are 9-7 common games is not applicable, so it goes down to SoV, which imho the Raiders already have clinched.


Step 3: OAK 9-7 -> #6 OAK

Step 4: NYJ 9-7 -> #6 NYJ

Step 5: -> #6 CIN






Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 24, 2011 5:36 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Thanks for the update Noob. Of course there is the chance that Oakland can win the division at 9-7 if Denver loses or ties, so perhaps that could go into the scenarios?

Week 17 should be interesting in the AFC at least. 



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 5:29 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

With the Chargers down 0-24 at halftime, I think we can narrow it down.

The AFC #6 seed 9-7 checklist.

Step 1: CIN not 9-7 -> #6 CIN

Step 2: OAK 9-7 and (NYJ 9-7 or TEN not 9-7) -> #6 OAK

Step 3: TEN 9-7 and (NYJ 9-7 or OAK 9-7) -> #6 TEN

Step 4: NYJ 9-7 -> #6 NYJ

Step 5: -> #6 CIN

Did I miss a scenario not fitting in?



Since: Dec 26, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 5:00 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

In case CIN loses to BAL in week 17, things can get quite messy for AFC #6 seed. All potential 9-7 team would be 7-5 in the conference, that's except CIN. Quick draft for what should be the 9-7 tiebreakers:

- NYJ/CIN = NYJ (conference record 7-5/6-6)
- NYJ/TEN = TEN (common games 3-2/4-1)
- NYJ/SD = NYJ (H2H)
- NYJ/OAK = OAK (H2H)
- CIN/TEN = CIN (H2H)
- CIN/SD = SD (conference record 6-6/7-5)
- CIN/OAK = OAK (conference record 6-6/7-5)
- TEN/SD = SoV?
- TEN/OAK = TEN (common games 4-1/3-2)

- NYJ/CIN/TEN = TEN (NYJ/TEN common games 3-2/4-1)
- NYJ/CIN/SD = NYJ (NYJ/SD H2H)
- NYJ/CIN/OAK = OAK (NYJ/OAK H2H)
- NYJ/TEN/SD = TEN/SD SoV?
- NYJ/TEN/OAK = NYJ/TEN/OAK SoV?
- CIN/TEN/SD = TEN/SD SoV?
- CIN/TEN/OAK = TEN (TEN/OAK common games 4-1/3-2)

- NYJ/CIN/TEN/SD = TEN/SD SoV?
- NYJ/CIN/TEN/OAK = NYJ/TEN/OAK SoV?



Since: Dec 24, 2011
Posted on: December 24, 2011 1:08 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

An interesting scenario could develop for Week 17 SNF:
 
Week 16:

NYJ beat NYG
PHI beat DAL


In this situation all 3 teams are still alive for the division title for Week 17. If DAL-NYG is flexed to SNF, then it will either be a division title game (if PHI loses) or a Win-and-in for DAL (if PHI wins). The problem is that PHI would need NYG to lose their game, but by winning their earlier game, eliminate the team they need to win the later game and setup a competitive disadvantage. The only fair way to do things in this situation is for the 3 teams to be playing at the same time so that NYG play their best game.


But what if there are no other sexy choices for SNF?  



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 24, 2011 10:58 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett:  Thanks on the HOU oversight.  At 11-5, HOU woild have a 9-3 AFC record.  Now that I'm looking at any 3-way 11-5 tie with HOU, NE, and BAL/PIT, HOU wins that tiebreaker based on conference record or by h2h win over PIT.  I see a potential BAL/NE SoV at 12-4.  A HOU/DEN 10-6 SoV is possible to determine the #3 or #4 seed.


 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 8:31 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


From these numbers, it appears that MIN/STL could tie in SOS at 2-14, but that is not the case.  MIN getting to 147 requires ARZ to defeat CIN, which gives STL 2 victories from this game rather than their minimum of 1.  So w/ MIN at 147, STL would be at 148.  So I'm saying there would be no ties in SOS at 2-14.  Therefore, the draft order would be 1) IND, 2) MIN, 3) STL, correct?  Even though STL has a worse conf rec than MIN?
Thanks Vito for clearing that up, and yes, for Draft, SoS takes precedence over any division or wild-card seeding determined by the TB process.


  



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2011 5:38 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett...i just looked at NE-BAL SOV quickly (at 11-5 with BAL win over CLE so BAL doesn't get a CIN win for worst case scenario).  Also....HOU tying wouldn't matter re: SOV since HOU-BAL-NE at 11-5 would go to HOU on conf record (9-3 vs 8-4 for NE, BAL).

At quick glance...i have BAL's minimum number of wins EQUALING NE's maximum number of wins for SOV.  So....looks like a number of game results this Saturday could easily lock up SOV for BAL.  Will check it out tomorrow as it could come into play this year.

 



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 24, 2011 3:09 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Baltimore's loss to SD put Baltimore and New England tied in common games record. Therefore, any 2-way tie between Baltimore and New England (at 12-4, 9-3 conf, or 11-5, 8-4 conf) will come down to SoV. I feel it's likely Baltimore has already clinched but I'm not 100% sure without having done the analysis. Remember in the 3-way 13-3 tie with Houston, we were assuming 3 wins by Houston. And now we are subtracting San Diego's record from Baltimore's SoV and potentially Buffalo's record from New England's SoV.


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