Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 24, 2011 2:56 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS



** Note that of all these AFC teams, if TEN, OAK, DEN, and SD all finish at 9-7, they'll all have a 7-5 conference record.
Oak plays SD in week 17, so those teams cannot all finish 9-7. How about...

"** Note that of all these AFC teams, if any of TEN, OAK, DEN, and SD finish at 9-7, they'll all have a 7-5 conference record."





Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 24, 2011 2:50 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

GW- nice work on the figuring out all those scenarios. I have one correction, regarding Houston in the following scenarios.


[a]  3-way 11-5 SoV BAL, NE, HOU  (BAL already clinched 3-way SoV I think)
[b]  2-way 11-5 SoV NE TEN (BAL wins the #1 seed, this would determine the #2 and #3 seeds)
[c]  3-way 11-5 SoV NE, HOU, PIT (if all teams finish at 8-4 conference record)
[d]  2-way 10-6 SoV HOU DEN (for #3 or #4 seed)
In [a], [b], and [c], I believe Hou would have a 9-3 conference record compared to 8-4 for Bal, NE, and Pit.
In [b], I think you meant HOU, not TEN.
[d] looks ok.




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 24, 2011 2:02 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Oops, the 3-way tie at 9-7 with NYJ, CIN, and DEN would go to DEN due to DEN beating both NYJ and CIN, so that's one less SoV scenario for week 17.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 24, 2011 1:39 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I recall someone asking about possible SoV scenarios that could happen.  I'll list a few that involve AFC teams for the #6 seed:

2-way SoV NYJ and CIN at 10-6

2-way SoV NYJ and CIN at 9-7 (only applicable if both teams tie conference record)

2-way SoV TEN and SD at 9-7

3-way SoV NYJ, CIN, OAK at 9-7 (only applicable if all teams tie at 7-5 conference record)

3-way  SoV NYJ, CIN, DEN at 9-7 (only applicable if all teams tie at 7-5 conference record)

3-way SoV NYJ, TEN, DEN at 9-7 (only if NYJ has 7-5 conference record)

3-way SoV NYJ, TEN, OAK at 9-7 (only if NYJ has 7-5 conference record0

3-way SoV CIN, TEN, DEN at 9-7 (only if CIN has 7-5 conference record)

3-way SoV CIN, TEN, OAK at 9-7 (only if CIN has 7-5 conference record)

4-way SoV NYJ, CIN, TEN, DEN at 9-7  (only applicable if all teams tie at 7-5 conference record)

4-way 9-7 Sov NYJ, CIN, TEN, OAK (only applicable if all teams tie at 7-5 conference record)

4-way SoV 8-8 NYJ, CIN, TEN, OAK (only if there is a 4-way 8-8 tie in the AFCW)

4-way SoV 8-8 NYJ, CIN, TEN, DEN (only if there is a 3-way tie at 8-8 in the AFCW where either OAK or SD finish at 7-9)

** Note that of all these AFC teams, if TEN, OAK, DEN, and SD all finish at 9-7, they'll all have a 7-5 conference record.  NYJ and/or CIN can finish with either a 7-5 or 6-6 conference record.  NYJ (6-5 AFC) and CIN (6-5 AFC) play NFC opponents tomorrow, then AFC opponents in week 17.  So if NYJ and/or CIN win tomorrow, NYJ/CIN would be eliminated from any multi-team 9-7 tiebreaker in week 17 with a loss,

*** NYJ, CIN, TEN, and SD all share four common opponents (BUF, BAL, JAX, and DEN)  If all teams finish at 9-7 with all teams tied at 7-5 conference record, I have SD and TEN 4-1 in common opponents and CIN and NYJ at 3-2.

I have a few other SoV scenarios regarding seedings in the AFC:

3-way 11-5 SoV BAL, NE, HOU  (BAL already clinched 3-way SoV I think)
2-way 11-5 SoV NE TEN (BAL wins the #1 seed, this would determine the #2 and #3 seeds)
3-way 11-5 SoV NE, HOU, PIT (if all teams finish at 8-4 conference record)
2-way 10-6 SoV HOU DEN (for #3 or #4 seed)



I think I'll wait until all the AFC games are played tomorrow trying to figure these ones out. We may not see many of these scenarios for week 17, but if we do, it'll be a challenge.


 



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 24, 2011 12:56 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Therefore, the draft order would be 1) IND, 2) MIN, 3) STL, correct?  Even though STL has a worse conf rec than MIN?
Correct (If all 3 teams, like you said, finish 2-14.)


If anyone has the detailed steps on how this tiebreak was broken, could you please share it?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/

story?id=3175275

(Atlanta won the coin flip vs. Oakland)
I've posted a bunch in the past about how I dislike this tiebreaking method, and I'll be sure to bring it up this year in Joe's "post season" blog.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 12:46 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

TENNESSEE TITANS

   1) TEN loss + NYJ win

   2) TEN loss + CIN win

   3) TEN loss + OAK win + DEN win

   4) TEN loss + OAK win + DEN clinches SOV over TEN

Joe, nice catch on those scenarios.   A jedi tiebreaking master you are.





Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2011 12:28 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Precedence is KC/OAK/ATL 3-way from a couple of years ago.


If anyone has the detailed steps on how this tiebreak was broken, could you please share it?  I remember that it did not go how I expected.
Ok, is SOS always used as the first tiebreaker, regardless of conference affiliation?  To reiterate, I found the following win ranges for SOS at 2-14:

  • IND: min 133, max 139
  • MIN: min 142, max 147
  • STL: min 147, max 153
From these numbers, it appears that MIN/STL could tie in SOS at 2-14, but that is not the case.  MIN getting to 147 requires ARZ to defeat CIN, which gives STL 2 victories from this game rather than their minimum of 1.  So w/ MIN at 147, STL would be at 148.  So I'm saying there would be no ties in SOS at 2-14.  Therefore, the draft order would be 1) IND, 2) MIN, 3) STL, correct?  Even though STL has a worse conf rec than MIN?

At 3-13, the ranges change based on who MIN and STL defeat.  What's also in play is that STL played WAS, who is playing MIN week 16.  I believe MIN clinches worst SOS (vs. STL) if they lose to WAS this week.  However, if MIN defeats WAS and loses to CHI, STL can tie SOS by losing to SF (plus help), and could have a worse SOS (or tie) by losing to PIT (plus help).  Here are ranges at 3-13, w/ MIN loss to CHI and STL loss to PIT (best case for STL):
  • IND: min 131, max 137
  • MIN: min 141, max 146
  • STL: min 144, max 150

Remember, STL gets a boost of 1 when MIN reaches is max.  So if STL & MIN are at 3-13, STL could get the #2 pick.

The only way for STL to get the #1 pick (in my mind), when there is some tie in record, would be for IND to finish 3-13, while STL & MIN finish 2-13-1.  MIN would tie WAS, lose to CHI, while STL loses to PIT and ties SF.  Given help, STL could tie MIN for SOS, then gain the #1 pick by worse conf rec.




Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 23, 2011 11:40 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Packfan53225 said:

Week 17 could turn out to be a very boring week in the NFC if the following occurs in Week 16:

- GB win vs CHI
- SF win vs SEA
- ATL win vs NO
- DAL win vs PHI
- DET loss vs SD
- NYG loss vs NYJ
- ARZ loss vs CIN

These would be the standings:

Packers (14-1)
49ers (12-3)
Saints (11-4)
Cowboys (9-6)
Falcons (10-5)
Lions (9-6)

Every seed would be locked up
Actually the "every seed would be locked up" comment is incorrect fellow Packer fan.  Atlanta winning @ New Orleans would keep the Falcons with a chance to win the NFC South.  In Week 17, Atlanta would then have to win at home vs. Tampa Bay and hope that the Saints lose to Carolina in New Orleans.  Both of these can indeed happen.  The Bucs are playing like crap and the Panthers are playing pretty good and would love to spoil the Saints' plans.  Surprised



Since: Dec 15, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2011 10:47 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Week 17 could turn out to be a very boring week in the NFC if the following occurs in Week 16:

- GB win vs CHI
- SF win vs SEA
- ATL win vs NO
- DAL win vs PHI
- DET loss vs SD
- NYG loss vs NYJ
- ARZ loss vs CIN

These would be the standings:

Packers (14-1)
49ers (12-3)
Saints (11-4)
Cowboys (9-6)
Falcons (10-5)
Lions (9-6)

Every seed would be locked up. Potential Week 17 ties:
49ers beat the Saints in a 12-4 tie due to conference record.
Falcons beat the Lions in a 10-6 tie due to head to head.
All the teams on the outside looking in would be 7-8 or worse.

Before week 17 we would already be guaranteed to see the Lions going back into the Superdome to try to avenge a loss against the Saints in Week 13 while Matt Ryan will lead the Falcons into JerryWorld.

All of these results could happen too. The only reach would be the Falcons going into New Orleans and winning.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 23, 2011 9:12 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Just a reminder of the process should STL/MIN/IND end up tied for SoS at 2-14:

That is a good reminder of the procedure for 3 teams tied in SoS (3 teams not all from the same conference). I think the reason it is not published is because of how unlikely it is to happen and how complicated it can be to explain correctly. (especially if more than 3 teams are tied).

In this specific case, according to Joe and Vito, Ind has already clinched the lowest SoS among the group.

The following (below) is what I have in my version of the written language. It's complicated enough that I've proposed a few alternatives (not included in this post).

Multi-Team Strength of Schedule Ties

a)  All teams tied in Strength of Schedule are first ranked within their own conference using the Divisional and Interdivisional Tiebreaking Steps.

-  Only one tied team is ranked within its conference per application of the procedure; after the highest ranking team [E] is determined from a group of tied teams, the procedure is applied a second time with the remaining unranked teams to determine the next highest ranking team [E]. The procedure is reapplied as many times as needed, until each tied team is ranked within its own conference.

-  Each team retains its initial conference ranking for the remainder of the Draft Order Tiebreaking Procedure [F].

If all tied teams are from the same conference, skip to (d).

b)  Next, a coin flip between the lowest ranking team from the AFC and the lowest ranking team from the NFC determines the lowest overall ranking (highest draft position) among the group.

c)  If at least one team from each conference remains, a coin flip between the lowest ranking AFC team and the lowest ranking NFC team determines the next lowest ranking (next highest draft position) among the group.

Alternate Wording for step (c):

c) Step (b) is repeated as many times as necessary among the remaining teams until all remaining teams are from the same conference.

d)  If all remaining teams are from the same conference, overall rankings (and draft positions) are determined from the initial conference rankings [F].

Notes:

[E]  Any time the division or interdivision tiebreakers are used to break draft order ties, it is assumed that teams are ranked beginning with the highest ranking team. Although, to some people, it seems logical (when determining the draft order) to rank teams beginning with the lowest ranking team (i.e., determine the highest draft position first). A 3<sup>rd</sup> possibility is that tied teams are ranked within their division beginning with the highest ranking team, but then the lowest ranking team from each division is compared in the Interdivisional Tiebreakers.

[F]  It is assumed that initial rankings are retained, rather than re-ranking the teams every time through. However, if teams are ranked beginning with the lowest ranking team (instead of the highest ranking team), then any time the teams are re-ranked, the re-ranking order will match the original ranking order. Doing this would eliminate the need to "retain orginal rankings", as the rankings could never change.




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