Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2011 6:52 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Looking ahead to the "Luck"y losers:


Just a reminder of the process should STL/MIN/IND end up tied for SoS at 2-14:


MIN cannot get 1st pick (as STL loses the WC tie-breaker on conf record).

So it would be coin-toss with IND/STL for #1.

If IND wins the coin toss it would be

1. IND, 2. STL, 3. MIN

If  STL wins the coin toss it would be

1. STL and then IND/MIN would toss for #2/3

Precedence is KC/OAK/ATL 3-way from a couple of years ago.

So for MIN to have any chance at #1 it must have worse SOS than STL but could tie IND and go for coin toss.


    




Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 23, 2011 6:35 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ok...If I did it correctly, Atlanta can only get 10 more wins.  Since they are 22 behind, then I would agree with you...but thats only of I did it corretly.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2011 5:21 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Has anyone tested it to see if reverting is done correctly (when one team is eliminated but three remain)? Is there any scenario left where this would happen?

@brett

Joe reported a couple of weeks back that it was not reverting correctly. see previous week posts. I doubt that the would have fived it .


I think they release version once a year, so it is probably not fixed. This one is much better than previous or yahoo's    



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: December 23, 2011 4:36 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

So based on Joe's work, here are the number of teams for each given status below, going into Week 16:

ALREADY ELIMINATED - 10
ALREADY CLINCHED - 7
CAN CLINCH - 4
CAN BE ELIMINATED - 9
CAN NEITHER CLINCH NOR BE ELIMINATED - 2

So there are no instances where a single result can either advance a team with a win OR eliminate them with a loss.. yet.
I'd say as seasons go in terms of scenarios, this one isn't bad!
We'll see if it stays that way after Monday night.....



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2011 3:40 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Actually....one edit to below.  In my comment on the DEN-TEN SOV...if they end up TIED in SOV it would not go to SOS.  Since the SOV tie would be between NYJ, CIN, TEN and DEN, NYJ and CIN would drop out of that tiebreaker and TEN-DEN would go back to H2H and TEN would win based on victory over DEN week 3.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2011 2:57 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Okay....here's what I have for ELIMINATION SCENARIOS (without including any ties).   When perusing the blog, I didn't see TEN scenarios 3 and 4 below mentioned.  In running DEN-TEN SOV quickly....looks like DEN can clinch that outright with 3 out of these 4 teams winning (MIA, SD, CHI, MIN) and 2 of those 4 would force at least a tie and send it to SOS.  I discounted any CIN or NYJ wins for DEN SOV since wins by either of those would eliminate TEN on their own.


AFC

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

   1) KC loss

   2) DEN win

TENNESSEE TITANS

   1) TEN loss + NYJ win

   2) TEN loss + CIN win

   3) TEN loss + OAK win + DEN win

   4) TEN loss + OAK win + DEN clinches SOV over TEN

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

   1) SD loss + NYJ win

   2) SD loss + CIN win

OAKLAND RAIDERS

   1) OAK loss + NYJ win

   2) OAK loss + CIN win


NFC

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

   1) PHI loss

   2) NYG win

NEW YORK GIANTS

   1) NYG loss + DAL win

ARIZONA CARDINALS

   1) ARI loss

   2) DET win + ATL win

CHICAGO BEARS

   1) CHI loss

   2) DET win + ATL win

 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

   1) SEA loss

   2) DET win + ATL win

   3) DET win + CHI loss




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 23, 2011 1:10 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Brett, I do account for everything that you mentioned, I just find it hard to write all that down and my post was long enough to begin with. I've found my method of creating a chart for it seems to work nicely, but I'm farther from being an expert than you for sure.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 23, 2011 12:12 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygbsb42,
In your method, I think you must also account for future losses (teams that must lose because they play teams that must win), don't you? Otherwise I think you might include one of these future losses as a potential win when determining the MAX wins.

Also, I would indicate if a game counts as 2 wins and then be sure to add a win to the 2nd team's MIN total if the 2nd team also beat said team.

But I'm not an expert at this method!

Brett



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 23, 2011 7:46 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ryanmarcantonio, I have no idea how anyone else does it, but here's how I do SoV and it seems to work very efficiently. First I jot down each of the victories for the team in question, and how many wins each of those teams has. Next to the win totals I write their remaining schedule out horizontally to form a little chart. Then i circle instances where two teams on the list play each other, as that guarantees one and only one future SoV win. Then I total up each teams current+guaranteed future wins. To get max wins you add all circled matchups to the win total, for min you add none. Finally, the toughest step is to eliminate redundancies, such as if both teams beat a common opponent, all uncircled games for both teams against that team are not counted for that opponent because they cannot use them to change a difference in SoV. Thus you get a max and a conditional min or vice versa. If one teams max is less than another's conditional min or one teams min is greater than the others conditional max, SoV is clinched(provided it is 2 way). 24 wins is impossible to make up no matter what because for two 11 win teams, there are only at absolute most 22 games left to change, so the closest ATL could get (assuming your wins numbers are right) would be 2 wins down even if they never beat a common opponent and none of their or SFs SoV opponents play each other in the next 2 weeks. Anyway, sorry for the length of the post; I am sure there are better SoV calculating methods out there, I just wanted to share mine because it seems to work pretty smoothly.



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 23, 2011 1:52 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

To all of us regulars here at the blog, I am compiling an email list so that we can all keep in touch during the offseason, go ahead and drop me a response at the following email address and I'll make sure that your added to the distribution.  So that no one has to miss out on the offseason procedure updates or other miscellaneous info.  Make sure you include your blog name from here with your email so we know who is who.

tiebreakercontacts@gmail.com


-Cheers
-Jerry 


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