Blog Entry

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 23, 2011 1:05 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Agn,

The espn playoff machine did juggle Cincinnati and the Jets back and forth as I played with the games affecting their SoV tiebreaker. 5 or more results in the Jets favor, and it picked the Jets. Less than 5 and it picked Cincinnati. I did try different combinations of exactly 5 results and it always picked the Jets, even in scenarios when Cincinnati won SoS. Now, however, it is always picking Cincinnati when SoV is tied, even if I set up so the Jets win SoS.

Has anyone tested it to see if reverting is done correctly (when one team is eliminated but three remain)? Is there any scenario left where this would happen? If so, in this scenario, would reverting with three remaining teams produce a different result than if the reverting had not been done?





Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 23, 2011 12:58 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I don't remember the specific inefficiencies mentioned here of espn's playoff machine, but I did notice today that it does not consider Strength of Schedule if Strength of Victory is tied. With regards to Cincinnati and the Jets at 10-6, the playoff machine selects the Jets whenever SoV is tied, whether or not Cincinnati owns SoS tiebreaker.


I had always assumed the playoff machine handled both SOV and SOS.  That's pretty much what I use it for, to double check my SOV calculations.  But I noticed the same thing other day when looking at HOU - DEN tied for the #3 seed that it did not select DEN when I expected them to be selected by virtue of SOS.  I feel less confident about the playoff machine the more I use it.





Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 23, 2011 12:12 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


_

I haven't found a way for Indy to not be on the clock with a loss.
_

Jeff. I have Atl currently  at 48-82 and SF at 71-99.  I don't think its possible to make up 24 games but can someone walk me through how to figure it out.  I forget how to get the MAX wins.




Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 11:39 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Really quick if Ind, StL, and Min all finisih 2-14, IND's SOS will finish around 122-106 0.535 behind Min around 130-97 0.573 and StL around 125-88 0.587. I will keep trying to find a way to make IND's SOS go up.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 22, 2011 11:31 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

So....

* I had IND clinching #1 draft choice with a loss tonight.  Have them already clinching worst SOS among IND and either STL or MIN.   After perusing blog...looks like Vito and others have same.   Heard someone from another media agency say not so.  Does anyone NOT have IND already clinching worst SOV (meaning IND loss next week at JAC also gets them #1 draft choice)?

* I concur with ATL not able to get #2 seed.

* Vito...After I had posted what we sent to the League, we did indeed see the additional NE HFA scenario with a TIE + HOU loss + PIT loss + BAL loss.  It is a minor point, but we did let the League know and others media and team entities know as well.  Highly doubtful it comes into play...but you never know.  Good catch on the blog side though.

* Looking at ELIMS tonight (will look at without ties) 



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 22, 2011 10:07 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I don't remember the specific inefficiencies mentioned here of espn's playoff machine, but I did notice today that it does not consider Strength of Schedule if Strength of Victory is tied. With regards to Cincinnati and the Jets at 10-6, the playoff machine selects the Jets whenever SoV is tied, whether or not Cincinnati owns SoS tiebreaker.
I'm surprised it gets that far. Is it smart enough to select Cinc when Cinc wins SoS? If it does it is much better than last year. I found in the past that once it 'chose' a certain winner, playing with SoS or SoV didn't affect who it already chose.


I'd try and set up a scenario where CIN wins SoS by .5 and then toggle one game to see if it goes to NYJ. that way you'll know if even SoS works.

Guess nex year they will have 2 things to fix: SoV and 4-way to 3-way, which Joe already pointed out did not work.  

  



     





    



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 6:32 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I don't remember the specific inefficiencies mentioned here of espn's playoff machine, but I did notice today that it does not consider Strength of Schedule if Strength of Victory is tied. With regards to Cincinnati and the Jets at 10-6, the playoff machine selects the Jets whenever SoV is tied, whether or not Cincinnati owns SoS tiebreaker.



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 6:27 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Something about Colts.

I saw somewhere that Colts can lose today and still lose 1st pick. Is this really possible?

So I think, according to Vito, the answer to this is "No - not possible". If the Colts lose, then even if they win next week to force a tie with St. Louis, Minnesota, or both, the Colts are locked into the lowest Strength of Schedule among the 3 teams.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2011 2:54 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I found that the best Atlanta can get to is 77-99 and if they indeed get to that best possible SoV, San Francisco gets to a worst of 79-97 and therefore I see no way that Atlanta can get the 2 seed and 1st round bye.  Does anyone else concur?


I concur, and actually had SF getting 80 wins when ATL got 77.  They both defeated PHI, DET, TB, and SEA, so that makes it hard for ATL to gain ground.

I did more research on the #1 draft pick SOS scenarios.  Indeed, STL can tie MIN in SOS, but only at 2-13-1, when MIN ties WAS and STL ties SF.  Since this also involves IND winning out, GB and NO losing out, and 5 other results, I'd say it's pretty remote.  These are the SOS win ranges I've calculated for IND - MIN -STL at 2-14.  There are minor changes to these at 2-13-1 and 3-13.

  • IND: min 133, max 139
  • MIN: min 142, max 147
  • STL: min 147, max 153

Without looking, one might guess MIN should be toughest given GB, DET, & CHI in their division.  However, SEA and ARZ are putting up a lot of late wins, and STL schedule includes GB, NO, BAL, PIT, and CIN.






Since: Dec 2, 2010
Posted on: December 22, 2011 2:46 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Something about Colts.

I saw somewhere that Colts can lose today and still lose 1st pick. Is this really possible?


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