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Blog Entry

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:47 pm
 
Well...we finally made it through another tiebreaker season.  It's been interesting, especially in the AFC West and with all the potential ties at 9-7 in both the AFC and NFC.  I'm putting out Week 17 scenarios a little early since all AFC games are done for week 16 and the NFC is pretty cut and dry now.

Also...you should know that the scenarios below were simplified as two potential scenarios that would come down to Strength of Victory (SOV) tiebreaker are already locked up.  If BAL wins and NE loses, the battle for the #1 seed comes down to SOV as they would be tied in conf record and common opponents.  BAL has already secured the better record among teams they have defeated (SOV) over NE, otherwise we might have had some games with playoff impact that are not directly related to BAL-NE.  The other scenario where SOV may come into play is a 4-team tie at 9-7 between CIN-NYJ-TEN-OAK (needs CIN loss, NYJ win, TEN win, OAK win and DEN win).  CIN would drop out on conf record and NYJ-TEN-OAK don't have enough common opponents so it goes to SOV.  OAK has already secured better Win-Loss-Tied percentage among defeated opponents (assuming scenario above) over TEN and NYJ.

Also....TEN is probably the most interesting scenario to figure out.   If you look at TEN scenarios below, basically they need another team to match up with them and CIN at 9-7 to avoid losing H2H to CIN.  If Jets win...they win that 3-way with NYJ-CIN-TEN on common opponents over NYJ after CIN drops out on conf record.  BUT...they can't have OAK as Wild Card potential at 9-7 as well because in that case CIN drops out and not enough common opponents for NYJ-TEN-OAK and OAK wins that tiebreaker on Strength of Victory.    BUT....if OAK is there as potential WC at 9-7 (both DEN and OAK win), TEN can advance if NYJ loses as then it would be TEN-CIN-OAK and CIN would drop out on conf record and TEN beats OAK on common opponents.  So TEN gets in if they Win and CIN loses and either NYJ wins or OAK wins (and doesn't win division)...BUT NOT BOTH.  Weird.

So, we're left with below:

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (also includes remaining 2 Week 16 games):

NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
Detroit Lions -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) one GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win
   2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie
   3) one NO loss
  San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:  
   1) SF win + two GB losses

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) one NO win or tie
   2) one ATL loss or tie
  New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie
   2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:
   1) NYG win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:
   1) two ATL wins + two NO losses
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) one ATL win or tie
   2) one CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a wild card spot:
   1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.
Houston Texans -- South Division.
Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) BAL win + NE loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie
   2) PIT tie + BAL loss
  Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) OAK loss

 OAKLAND Raiders
  Oakland clinches AFC West Division:
   1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie
   2) OAK tie + DEN loss
  Oakland clinches a wild card spot:
   1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie
   2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win
 
 CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:
   1) CIN win or tie
   2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:
   1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 TENNESSEE Titans
  Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:
   1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
   2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie
   3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

Comments

Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 28, 2011 12:44 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

agn said:

Sorry for the brain freeze, but could someone remind me how the 3-way DEN-OAK-SD at 8-8 tiebreakers falls (ie how SD gets eliminated?)

Same for DEN 9-7 and OAK-SD at 8-8?

Would not either result in SD finishing 2nd?
  
Doesn't this result in the possibilty of the 4-way tie 4 wild-card as SD-CIN-NYJ-TEN? Does SD get eliminated first in this 4-way, as would OAK if SD finshes 7-9?
Hi there agn.  San Diego gets eliminated in a 3 way 8-8 tie between Den.-Oak.-S.D. by the fact that Denver advances as a division champ due to winning common games over the Raiders and Chargers.  After that, the Chargers indeed get 2nd place in the division over the Raiders and that happens on Conference record.

Den. 9-7, and Oak./S.D. at 8-8 also results in San Diego finishing 2nd in the division.

The 4 way tie of SD-CIN-NYJ-TEN can't happen because the worst the Bengals can finish is 9-7.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2011 9:50 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Sorry for the brain freeze, but could someone remind me how the 3-way DEN-OAK-SD at 8-8 tiebreakers falls (ie how SD gets eliminated?)

Same for DEN 9-7 and OAK-SD at 8-8?

Would not either result in SD finishing 2nd?
  
Doesn't this result in the possibilty of the 4-way tie 4 wild-card as SD-CIN-NYJ-TEN? Does SD get eliminated first in this 4-way, as would OAK if SD finshes 7-9?



     

   



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 27, 2011 6:55 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Agn,
All I mean is that everyone has their own POV (including I am sure everyone in whatever committie decides on the tiebreakers), and since there is no clearly logically best way to do the tiebreakers, it is all decided based on an arbitrarily decided upon arbitrary process. Ultimately it logically is fair because in the long run each team theoretically would be helped and hurt by it, but it's just a problem with no good answer. Not complaining by any means, just observing. 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 27, 2011 6:48 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Jerry,
My philosphy will never be close to popular because it is unfriendly to the suspense and excitement that is the NFL. Obviously, in the scenario you mentioned, the h2h game is meaningless and that makes it seem absurd, and while I concur that meaningless games aren't good for the NFL, I would contest that that is a specific scenario which makes it sound pretty bad. In general, games would have equal importance, which I think is a good thing (division opponents play twice to begin with, so twice as much emphasis is put on division opponents). No doubt I do enjoy the de facto playoff game situation with NYG and DAL, but I guess my priorities are just different from most people's in that I think picking the better team is of the utmost importance. But in a television and media driven league, my system will never happen.   



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: December 27, 2011 5:45 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

nygsb42, I think my thoughts on amongness are sound. I've always kind of viewed common opponents and conference record as horse apiece. In fact there order is swapped depending on which procedure is being used which is why I made the point about the trend being qualitative versus quantitative. I am trying real hard to imagine some scenarios where teams advance to the playoffs using SOV over H2H. You could run into some wacky and seemingly unfair scenarios where tied teams that have swept other teams H2H teams and have near perfect conference records get passed up by a team they beat. Imagine the outrage if the following scenario occurred: Team A 14-1. Team B 15-0. Team A plays Team B in week 17. Team B has already clinched SOV and SOS over Team A. So using your system this final showdown between Team A and Team B is meaningless, since if in the final game Team A beats Team B such that they both finish with a 15-1 record Team B still makes the playoffs based on SOS despite having loss what most would view as a regular season playoff game. Im trying really hard to wrap my mind around the merits of this proposed philosophy but it seems utterly absurd in certain situations -Cheers -Jerry.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2011 4:30 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Sure thing nyg.

There can only be one procedure, and if it is  "arbitrary" in the sense that it must be decided upon beforehand, I see no reason to regret this. Otherwise would be chaos. Might as well use "power ratings", polls or a computer (sound familar?)

If however you are saying that the process is "arbitrary" in that it is forced upon us (or the clubs) unreasonably, I don't see as we have much choice on that, given our lack of seats at the League table.

As I've stated before, I've never heard of a club complaining at season's end that they were robbed of a play-off spot because of the tie-breakers. Sure they may complain that they didn't make it a 10-6 when a 9-6 division winner made it, but I've never heard one say that they should get in instead of another 10-6 team. They all would readily admit that they should have won one more game.

"The tie-breakers were what we thought they were."



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 27, 2011 2:54 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Agn: just a general statement. All I meant is that as we have discussed, there is no ideal way to do the tiebreakers; any system is to a significant degree arbitrary. Since their are many POVs about how they should be done, and only one arbitrary method can be used, I think that's a shame. I wasn't saying there was an alternate way.



Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2011 2:32 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Full explanation of MLB tie-breakers

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b

ullpen/Resolution_of_ties_in_divisi

on_races




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2011 2:13 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ya gotta feel sorry for FOX (not) this week. Nothing but yawners on their schedule -- don't say NO/CAR and SF/STL , and the one game that all season they would probably pay the league extra for is pulled to NBC.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2011 2:10 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

It's a shame there can only be one arbitrary set of tiebreakers.
You'd need to explain that statementUndecided
What alternative is there other than one set of tiebreakers.




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