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Blog Entry

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:47 pm
 
Well...we finally made it through another tiebreaker season.  It's been interesting, especially in the AFC West and with all the potential ties at 9-7 in both the AFC and NFC.  I'm putting out Week 17 scenarios a little early since all AFC games are done for week 16 and the NFC is pretty cut and dry now.

Also...you should know that the scenarios below were simplified as two potential scenarios that would come down to Strength of Victory (SOV) tiebreaker are already locked up.  If BAL wins and NE loses, the battle for the #1 seed comes down to SOV as they would be tied in conf record and common opponents.  BAL has already secured the better record among teams they have defeated (SOV) over NE, otherwise we might have had some games with playoff impact that are not directly related to BAL-NE.  The other scenario where SOV may come into play is a 4-team tie at 9-7 between CIN-NYJ-TEN-OAK (needs CIN loss, NYJ win, TEN win, OAK win and DEN win).  CIN would drop out on conf record and NYJ-TEN-OAK don't have enough common opponents so it goes to SOV.  OAK has already secured better Win-Loss-Tied percentage among defeated opponents (assuming scenario above) over TEN and NYJ.

Also....TEN is probably the most interesting scenario to figure out.   If you look at TEN scenarios below, basically they need another team to match up with them and CIN at 9-7 to avoid losing H2H to CIN.  If Jets win...they win that 3-way with NYJ-CIN-TEN on common opponents over NYJ after CIN drops out on conf record.  BUT...they can't have OAK as Wild Card potential at 9-7 as well because in that case CIN drops out and not enough common opponents for NYJ-TEN-OAK and OAK wins that tiebreaker on Strength of Victory.    BUT....if OAK is there as potential WC at 9-7 (both DEN and OAK win), TEN can advance if NYJ loses as then it would be TEN-CIN-OAK and CIN would drop out on conf record and TEN beats OAK on common opponents.  So TEN gets in if they Win and CIN loses and either NYJ wins or OAK wins (and doesn't win division)...BUT NOT BOTH.  Weird.

So, we're left with below:

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (also includes remaining 2 Week 16 games):

NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
Detroit Lions -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) one GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win
   2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie
   3) one NO loss
  San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:  
   1) SF win + two GB losses

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) one NO win or tie
   2) one ATL loss or tie
  New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie
   2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:
   1) NYG win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:
   1) two ATL wins + two NO losses
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) one ATL win or tie
   2) one CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a wild card spot:
   1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.
Houston Texans -- South Division.
Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) BAL win + NE loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie
   2) PIT tie + BAL loss
  Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) OAK loss

 OAKLAND Raiders
  Oakland clinches AFC West Division:
   1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie
   2) OAK tie + DEN loss
  Oakland clinches a wild card spot:
   1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie
   2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win
 
 CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:
   1) CIN win or tie
   2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:
   1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 TENNESSEE Titans
  Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:
   1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
   2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie
   3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

Comments

Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2012 1:34 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ivan, I don't have records from 1990 to 2001, since the NFL went to the 12 team playoff format.  I just thought I'd ask you if there's been another Wildcard Weekend where the two 6 vs. 3 matchups were both played on Saturday.  If so, could you please post the seasons that this has happened.


Jeff, this is what I have going back to 1990:

1992

AFC: 6-Kansas City at 3-San Diego
NFC: 6-Washington at 3-Minnesota

1993

AFC: 6-Pittsburgh at 3-Kansas City
NFC: 6-Green Bay at 3-Detroit

2000

AFC: 6-Indianapolis at 3-Miami
NFC: 6-St. Louis at 3-New Orleans

2001

AFC: 6-New York Jets at 3-Oakland
NFC: 6-Tampa Bay at 3-Philadelphia

2011

AFC: 6-Cincinnati at 3-Houston
NFC: 6-Detroit at 3-New Orleans

So this is the first time in a decade that we have the two 6 vs. 3 matchups on Wildcard Weekend both played on a Saturday, and it's only the fifth time this has occurred since we went to the 12-team playoff format in 1990.




Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2012 12:31 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

The tie-breakers should "expand" through the division and confernce before going to the non-conference. This preserves the hierarchy of division/conf/non-conf throughout the seasn, not dependant on wheher a team is going for a division title or a wild-card.


Not sure I agree with this.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but the hierarchy is a by-product from the pre-32 team era when non-conf games were not necessarily common between division opponents (esp. during the 31-team era when the AFC Central had 6 teams).  So since 2002, it has been possible to make all non-conf games common among divisional foes.  So the "hierarchy" was thrown out with the new schedule formula.  I think it is better this way because it makes all 16 opponents important in the tiebreaking process.  You can't take a week off because you are playing a non-conf opponent.


As an aside, I believe we have two coin flips for the draft... MIA/CAR for 8th position and SEA/KC for 11th.




Since: Dec 27, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2012 11:44 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

I think the issue is not so much with the semantics of 'commoN", buty with the temporary importance palce =d on the 4 non-congf games in the entire division/wildcard process.


The tie-breakers should "expand" through the division and confernce before going to the non-conference. This preserves the hierarchy of division/conf/non-conf throughout the seasn, not dependant on wheher a team is going for a division title or a wild-card.
 

The common game division tie-breaker performs a "shift", by first  including 4 games and then throwing these out in favor of 2 other games.

The "common confernce opponents" solves this.

      



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2012 2:04 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Pillbox...not sure what you are referring to on changing the number...but it usually comes down to semantics.

The League said when the scheduling formula went into effect in 2002 with four four-team divisions in each conference that each division foe has 14 "games in common" (6 division games, 4 games against division of own conference and 4 games against division of other conference).

But when looking at two division foes to see record among "common opponents", we only include 4 division games since the two teams aren't common opponents of each other (e.g. if DEN and SD split H2H, we don't add DEN as a common opponent for either team since DEN can't play itself).   That leaves 12 games against common opponents for 2 teams from same division.

And...when it's 3 teams in a tie, we only include 2 division games for same reason as above (that's why only KC is included as common opponent for DEN, OAK and SD).  That leaves 10 games against common opponents for 3 teams from same division.

Despite what I might have said prior, the above is how I see Common Opponents...but many still refer to teams having 14 "games in common" so that's why I use it from time to time.  Perhaps I shouldn't.    

     



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2012 1:50 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Jeff:

I tend to believe that the DET/NO game was purposely scheduled for Saturday since the BCS championship game is being played at the Superdome on January 9th, which is 2 days later.  That only gives the BCS 2 days to prepare the place for that game.

 



Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: January 2, 2012 1:48 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Pillbox, i kind of agree with you. the way I see it is that the only way for the common games tiebreaker to be used is for identical division records, thereby (regardless of formal tally) dropping the subset number to 8 possible differing results. For conference, this number drops to 6. So it would seem logical for conference record to come first.



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: January 2, 2012 1:39 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Actually Pillbox, there are the 2 games different in Conference record. The 2 non-common games are what's different for each team. So, in effect, the 12 games of Conference record are 10 common games and 2 non-common games. Whereas, in the Common Games record, there are 14 common games. Therefore that subset includes more games. Don't try and break down the number of games in each subset and just take them for what they actually are. There are 14 Common games per team per division and there are 12 games in each team's Conference record. The Common games are a higher subset than the Conference games
Ah, of course you are right! Thank you!  :)
But then, my question still remains:
You from H2H (2 games, or in the case of this year's AFC West, 4)
to Division (6)
to Common (14)
to Conference (12)

My question is, why?
I still think it defies the logic of lowest to highest subsets.
And it doesn't explain Joe's changing the number (for common opponents subset) back to 14.
There's no further way I can botch up the rest of it, though so I'll stand down and wait to see if anyone has an explanation.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2012 1:17 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

thenflrules said:

WILDCARD WEEKEND

Saturday, January 7

AFC: 6-Cincinnati at 3-Houston, 4:30 (NBC)

NFC: 6-Detroit at 3-New Orleans, 8:00 (NBC)

And this is the 1st time since the NFL expanded in 2002, that both 6 vs. 3 matchups will both be played on Saturday.  That means that the winners of each game will know who and where they will be playing the next week.  Also, it means that the winner of each Sunday game will also know their destination, before their game is played.  Interesting indeed.  Ivan, I don't have records from 1990 to 2001, since the NFL went to the 12 team playoff format.  I just thought I'd ask you if there's been another Wildcard Weekend where the two 6 vs. 3 matchups were both played on Saturday.  If so, could you please post the seasons that this has happened.

As a side note, I am a little surprised that the NFL decided to do this.  Surprised



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: January 2, 2012 1:00 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Pillbox said:

If you are using conference record first, there are no different games. It's just a different subset.
Actually Pillbox, there are the 2 games different in Conference record.  The 2 non-common games are what's different for each team.  So, in effect, the 12 games of Conference record are 10 common games and 2 non-common games.  Whereas, in the Common Games record, there are 14 common games.  Therefore that subset includes more games.  Don't try and break down the number of games in each subset and just take them for what they actually are.  There are 14 Common games per team per division and there are 12 games in each team's Conference record.  The Common games are a higher subset than the Conference games.


And to Ivan,

Thank you very much my man.  Those are exactly how I have the matchups.  Of course I wouldn't have them without your post much earlier that had every team's Common Games.  I don't have them exactly down as a science yet because of the little changes made to the West divisions in 2010.  Thanks again and here's to a great playoff season with hopefully a Green Bay repeat. 

Jeff   Wink



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2012 12:36 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

For the first time since 2007, we have three teams from one division in the playoffs, with the three AFC North teams BAL, CIN, and PIT. In 2007, it was three NFC teams in DAL, NYG, and WAS.

GW, that's right.  We also had IND, JAC, and TEN all making the playoffs from the AFC South in 2007.

By the way, just in case anyone hasn't seen the rest of the postseason schedule after next week:

WILDCARD WEEKEND

Saturday, January 7

AFC: 6-Cincinnati at 3-Houston, 4:30 (NBC)

NFC: 6-Detroit at 3-New Orleans, 8:00 (NBC)

Sunday, January 8

NFC: 5-Atlanta at 4-New York Giants, 1:00 (FOX)

AFC: 5-Pittsburgh at 4-Denver, 4:30 (CBS)

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Saturday, January 14

NFC: 3-New Orleans / 4-New York Giants / 5-Atlanta at 2-San Francisco, 4:30 (FOX)

AFC: 4-Denver / 5-Pittsburgh / 6-Cincinnati at 1-New England, 8:00 (CBS)

Sunday, January 15

AFC: 3-Houston / 4-Denver / 5-Pittsburgh at 2-Baltimore, 1:00 (CBS)

NFC: 4-New York Giants / 5-Atlanta / 6-Detroit at 1-Green Bay, 4:30 (FOX)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Sunday, January 22

AFC Championship, 3:00 (CBS)

NFC Championship, 6:30 (FOX)

2012 PRO BOWL

Sunday, January 29

AFC All-Stars vs. NFC All-Stars (Honolulu), 7:00 (NBC)

SUPER BOWL XLVI

Sunday, February 5

NFC Champion vs. AFC Champion (Indianapolis), 6:30 (NBC)



 



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