Blog Entry

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:47 pm
 
Well...we finally made it through another tiebreaker season.  It's been interesting, especially in the AFC West and with all the potential ties at 9-7 in both the AFC and NFC.  I'm putting out Week 17 scenarios a little early since all AFC games are done for week 16 and the NFC is pretty cut and dry now.

Also...you should know that the scenarios below were simplified as two potential scenarios that would come down to Strength of Victory (SOV) tiebreaker are already locked up.  If BAL wins and NE loses, the battle for the #1 seed comes down to SOV as they would be tied in conf record and common opponents.  BAL has already secured the better record among teams they have defeated (SOV) over NE, otherwise we might have had some games with playoff impact that are not directly related to BAL-NE.  The other scenario where SOV may come into play is a 4-team tie at 9-7 between CIN-NYJ-TEN-OAK (needs CIN loss, NYJ win, TEN win, OAK win and DEN win).  CIN would drop out on conf record and NYJ-TEN-OAK don't have enough common opponents so it goes to SOV.  OAK has already secured better Win-Loss-Tied percentage among defeated opponents (assuming scenario above) over TEN and NYJ.

Also....TEN is probably the most interesting scenario to figure out.   If you look at TEN scenarios below, basically they need another team to match up with them and CIN at 9-7 to avoid losing H2H to CIN.  If Jets win...they win that 3-way with NYJ-CIN-TEN on common opponents over NYJ after CIN drops out on conf record.  BUT...they can't have OAK as Wild Card potential at 9-7 as well because in that case CIN drops out and not enough common opponents for NYJ-TEN-OAK and OAK wins that tiebreaker on Strength of Victory.    BUT....if OAK is there as potential WC at 9-7 (both DEN and OAK win), TEN can advance if NYJ loses as then it would be TEN-CIN-OAK and CIN would drop out on conf record and TEN beats OAK on common opponents.  So TEN gets in if they Win and CIN loses and either NYJ wins or OAK wins (and doesn't win division)...BUT NOT BOTH.  Weird.

So, we're left with below:

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (also includes remaining 2 Week 16 games):

NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
Detroit Lions -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) one GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win
   2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie
   3) one NO loss
  San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:  
   1) SF win + two GB losses

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) one NO win or tie
   2) one ATL loss or tie
  New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie
   2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:
   1) NYG win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:
   1) two ATL wins + two NO losses
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) one ATL win or tie
   2) one CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a wild card spot:
   1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.
Houston Texans -- South Division.
Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) BAL win + NE loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie
   2) PIT tie + BAL loss
  Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) OAK loss

 OAKLAND Raiders
  Oakland clinches AFC West Division:
   1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie
   2) OAK tie + DEN loss
  Oakland clinches a wild card spot:
   1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie
   2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win
 
 CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:
   1) CIN win or tie
   2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:
   1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 TENNESSEE Titans
  Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:
   1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
   2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie
   3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

Comments

Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 4:49 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

NFC Scenarios

Seed 1—Green Bay
Seed 2—San Francisco
Seed 3—New Orleans

Seed 4
The winner of the NY Giants-Dallas game will be the #4 seed

Seeds 5 and 6
  • If Atlanta beats Tampa Bay, Atlanta is the #5 seed (and Detroit is the #6 seed)
  • If Atlanta loses to Tampa Bay, Detroit is the #5 seed (and Atlanta is the #6 seed)
 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2012 4:43 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

actually...YES...via CBS Research head



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 4:30 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

OK, Jim Nantz just corrected it as soon as I hit submit.Smile  Did you have anything to do with that Joe?



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 4:29 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Joe,

To be honest, I totally agree with you on MLB wild cards.  162 is enough to determine the best teams.  Eliminate all non-division winners.  When you play every team in your division 18 times, You've got a fair shot.

It's funny that the CBS announcers are saying that Tennessee gets the wildcard if Cincinnati loses.  I believe they are incorrect and that if EITHER Denver OR Oakland lose, Cincinnati would beat Tennessee in a tie. 



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 4:12 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

AFC Playoff Scenarios


Seed 1—New England

Seeds 2 and 5
If Baltimore wins or Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore is the #2 seed (and Pittsburgh is the #5 seed).
If Cincinnati beats Baltimore and Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh is the #2 seed (and Baltimore is the #5 seed).

Seed 3—Houston

Seed #4
  • If Denver wins, they are the #4 seed.
  • If Denver loses, then Oakland is the #4 seed if they win.
  • If Denver and Oakland both lose, Denver is the #4 seed.

Seed #6
If Cincinnati wins, they are the #6 seed.

If Cincinnati loses
  • If Oakland and Denver win, Tennessee would be #6 seed on Common Opponents*
  • If Oakland or Denver lose, Cincinnati is the #6 seed on head to head over Tennessee
*-Cincinnati would be eliminated at Conference Record in the first step 



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2012 2:44 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Hey guys...

Ivan (nflrules)...on your query re: NFL Standings legend monikers, I'm a fan of simplicity as well.

I like:
x - Clinched Playoff Berth
y - Clinched Division Title
z - Clinched First-round Bye
* - Clinched Home-field Advantage Throughout Playoffs

I don't like adding seeds while season is ongoing as I think that would confuse more people honestly.  BUT...I do like adding seed parenthetical like "(3)" at season ending standings for clarity.


On other topics:
- haven't had a chance to look at full MLB information or discussion, but i'm not a fan of MLB's recent playoff changes.  I guess i'm old school, but not a fan of Wild Cards as, due to limited home field advantage in baseball 5 and 7 game series, I think a team that gets a Wild Card has almost an equal chance of winning their League as does the division champion.  If this is the way they want to go...why not just get rid of divisions and schedule a league round robin and pick the top 4 or 5 teams to go to playoffs.  But that's probably just me...

- Brett...on your question last week on Tiebreakers in general, I do think the following:
* There is no perfect system with football
* At end of day, just trying to determine teams eligible for a single-elimination tournament for each conference with each conference champion meeting for a World Championship one-game battle (Super Bowl). 
* System is agreed upon prior to season which is necessary
* Teams should understand from the system that 1) winning your division and division games is paramount and 2) winning games either against key conference contenders H2H or conference opponents generally (since it is a "conference playoff") are important and can come into play with tiebreakers
* League went to 14 common opponents for division foes...so that should be key behind H2H and division records for division ties (I agreed with this change of moving up common opponents for division in front of conf record in 2002)
* Was never a big fan of SOV/SOS coming into play....more from a process of figuring out the tiebreakers than a system standpoint...I was being selfish ;-).
* BUT...understood what League was doing in making WINS more important than Points/Stats (goes to WINNING is Paramount and avoiding teams running up score as distant concern).  I understand the thought that running up score can be seen as okay as defenses should be good enough to stop...but really shouldn't be potential method of determining best team qualified for postseason. 

Will launch Tiebreaker procedure blog tomorrow.

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!

Joe     

  

      
;     &nbs
p;



Since: Nov 6, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2012 12:14 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

For the playoff seeding letters, I always have, and most likely always will (unless the playoffs undergo a drastic change), use the same system,

I also like to "stack" them on per se, like this

x = playoff spot
y = division champion
z = first round bye
* = homefield throughout


but since they have homefield advantage, they also have a bye, and a division title, and a playoff berth, so how i really do it is

x = playoff spot
xy = division title
xyz = first round bye
xyz* = homefield advantage

I know this is pretty irrelevant but I like doing it that way

Also, the only spots secured arethe AFC 3, AFC 4, NFC 1, and NFC 4 (and bye secure I mean, for the NFC and AFC 4, whoever wins can't get anything but that spot) right? 1,2,5,6 are all up for grabs in AFC, and 2,3,5,6 are all up for grabs



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: December 31, 2011 8:32 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Gang, you all make good points.  And I'm with you Vito and nyg on the need for simplicity.  I also think that for mid-season standings, for first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout, we can just use one character.  Instead of using "yz" why not just "z" (or to use your example nyg, "b") since a team that has clinched a first round bye has already clinched their division.  I think it would be helpful if you were to look at the week-by-week standings for say 1986, that at a glance you can clearly tell that the Giants clinched a playoff berth in Week 13, division title in Week 15, and HFA in Week 16.

And I like your idea Brett on indicating W1, W2, D1, etc.  It can even be listed simply as 1-6 in the final division standings (or if a team has a seed already locked prior to the final week like GB and HOU this year, that can be included). 

So for example in 2010, the final NFC standings can just be listed as follows (and no need for x, y or z):

NFC East
(3) Philadelphia  10-6-0
...

NFC North
(2) Chicago  11-5-0
(6) Green Bay  10-6-0
...

NFC South 
(1) Atlanta  13-3-0
(5) New Orleans  11-5-0
...

NFC West
(4) Seattle  7-9-0
...

Thanks guys for your feedback.   



Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2011 6:16 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

My prefernce is now D-H for division champion and homefield throughout.
I didn't understand agn's post, but now I get that he was suggesting this very same thing. I must have picked it up subliminally.




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 31, 2011 6:13 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

My prefernce is now D-H for division champion and homefield throughout.

So here are my preferences:

x for playoff birth since it is undetermined if it is a Wild Card or Division Title. I don't like P - since "playoff birth" is not a label/title for a team and does not specify anything about seeding.
W for Wild Card. Perhaps W1 and W2 if the seeding has been determined.
D for Division Champion. Perhaps D1, D2, D3, D4 if a team is locked into that seed.

D-B for First round bye.
D-H for Homefield throughout.

I think for the casual fan, we want that D to be there for all the Division Champs.


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