Treff's Take, Week One-Recap
My record in 2012—Start of the week 1-0, Sit of the Week 1-0, Pick ‘Em games 10-5
Start of the week
I'm actually going to go with the guy playing Revis as my START of the week--Steve Johnson, WR-BUFF. In the two games vs. the Jets last year, Johnson had 11 catches 159 yards and a score. That’s picking them up and laying them down all over Revis Island. now having not watched every play of those games, I can't say for certain that most of that came directly against Revis, but he did post those numbers. Given the joke of a circus that the Jets have become with Tebow coming to town, and everything else that makes the Jets, the Jets, I expect the Bills to come out firing early and often, and Steve Johnson is the most likely candidate to get them anywhere.
Okay, so I squeak by on this one, and most he damage didn’t come against Revis, and the Jets were far from a joke, but, double digit points is what we’re after, and double digit points is what he got. 1-0 on the new season
Sit of the week
Larry Fitzgerald. Now here me out on this one all you Fitz believers out there. yea the guy is a freak of nature, yeah he did just fine with a pile of garbage throwing him the ball last year..but Seattle has improved, and that pile of garbage has not. Seattle will bring too much pressure for Fitz to have time to split triple coverage, and when Skelton does have time, he'll be checking down, or throwing it to god only knows where. Obviously no one even wants to consider benching their #1 WR, but my money is one your #4 outscoring him. (those who drafted like crap and have Braylon Edwards as your #4..please don't bother commenting)
Fitz had all of six points, and was outscored by a slew of #4 (or worse) WR’s. Considering your looking for a minimum of 10 from your #1 WR, that would be a big win. 1-0
Onto the games—italics signify a miss, bold a hit..and no I don’t play the spread or the score on picking the games, simply win or lose..this isn’t an online betting service
Cowboys @ Giants
Must starts- Romo, Murray, Bryant, Austin, Bailey. Eli, Cruz, Nicks, Tynes
ok in a pinch-Bradshaw, Giants Def
sits-Dallas D, Witten, Ogletree, David Wilson, Pascoe.
My game pick--Dallas 38, GMen 31
Okay so I completely underestimated the Cowboys re-vamped secondary, and it seemed like Eli did too. Cruz dropping passes didn’t help much, and I whiffed on Bennett. Let’s not even discuss Ogletree as a sit..that was a bad one.
Colts @ Bears
Must starts-Cutler, Fortte, Marshall, Bears D, Gould
ok in a pinch-Michael Bush, Devin Hester
sits-Luck, D. Brown, Fleener, Wayne, Collie, Vinatieri.
My pick- Bears 27 Colts 0
Well, the Colts are what they are. I underestimated how much Luck would be throwing and the kind of success he might have. Against a lesser team, Luck would’ve been an excellent start, but he needs some touchdowns. Missed on Wayne and Donald Brown as well
Eagles @ Browns
I'm really not sure where all this Trent Richardson love is coming from. Must be an awful lot of 'Bama fans out there or something, cuz I'm not seeing it. I see a solid NFL RB at best, a complete bust that never stay on the field at worst. And when I say solid, I mean a Cedric Benson type, not a Darren McFadden type, he'll be good enough to keep a job, but he's not going to wow anyone.
Must starts- Vick, Maclin, DJAX, McCoy, Eagles D, Henery
Ok in a pinch- Celek. Greg Little
sits- Richardson, Massaquoi, Watson, Jackson, Hardesty, CLEV D, Dawson
My pick- Eagles 35, Browns 10
So I choose to leave a little of my earlier analysis form this one to make a point. I had a few comments telling me I was bat shit crazy for calling Richarson a “bust”. Well first off, I never said he was for certain going to be a bust. Re-read hat I wrote. I simply stated that he’s not going to be anything more than above average at best, and AT WORST a bust. If game one is any indication, that’s where he’s headed. And before you hit me with this “stout” Eagles rush defense..it’s largely the same unit as last year, where they were dead red in the middle of the league vs the rush, so lets not cry a river for Richardson just yet.
However, I did completely miss on the Browns D being vastly improved. That was a high powered offense that they shut down, they may very well be for real.
Must starts- Stafford, Megatron, Titus Young, Pettigrew, Lions D, Hanson
ok in a pinch- SJAX. Kevin Smith
sits- Bradford, Amendola, StL. D, whoever kicks for the Rams..like it really matters
my pick- Lions 34, Rams 3
So I was way off on the score, and the Rams made an awful lot of suicide leaguers very worried, but the cream did rise to the top in the end. Kevin Smith probably should’ve been a must start, but hey I did say he could be started. Might actually be a useful Ram or two outside of SJAX after all.
Patriots @ Titans.
Must starts- Brady, Welker, Gronk, Lloyd. Gostkowski. Bironas
ok in a pinch- CJ2K, K. Wright, J. Cook. Ridley, A. Hernandez, PAT's D,
sits- Titans D, Britt, Washington, Locker.
My pick- Pats 34, Titans 26
Kind of hard to get a real good read on this game, I didn’t get a chance to watch any of it, and it was obvious that the Pat’s didn’t need to throw as Ridley burst onto the scene a full year after I predicted he’d be a stud..thanks Stevan!! So I’m not too concerned that Lloyd and Welker didn’t get much done. Once the league realizes they have a rushing attack, the wideouts will be fine. But the big story as the complete rotten egg that CJ2K laid. This guy is a dog, period. The HC was quoted later as saying he probably tried to make more than what was there..a coach shouldn’t have to tell a veteran RB, a former 2000 yard rusher, to take what they give you. He’s going to have a few games where he breaks some long runs, his speed alone guarantees that, but his days of being a must start are way over.
Falcons @ Cheifs
Must starts- Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Jacquizz Rodgers, Tony Gonzalez, Matt Bryant. Jamaal Charles
work in a pinch-Michael Turner, ATL D. Peyton Hillis, D. Bowe
sits-Cassel, Baldwin, Moeki, KC D
My pick- Atlanta 40, KC 21
So here’s my big game, I’ve gone as Falcon heavy as possible in every draft this year, and according to week one, that was a good idea. Matty Ice was excellent the entire game, Julio Jones didn’t disappoint and there was enough left over for Roddy White to still contribute, and a TD for Gonzo. The one thing that didn’t happen was The Whizz having a good game. But on the bright side, he was on the field far more than Turner was. And apparently I gave far too much credit to the Cheifs offense, Enjoy a long season Charles/Hillis owners!
Jags @ Vikes
Must starts-Gerhert, Harvin, Jennings
work in a pinch-Vikes D, Blair Walsh. Mercedes Lewis, JAX D, Scobee
sits-Gabbert, Blackmon, Robinson. Jenkins, Rudolph
My pick- Vikes 17 Jags 13
To recap, I wrote this write up Tuesday evening, when MJD had just reported to camp, wasn’t expected to play a role at all, if at all, and Peterson was in about the same boat. So I’ll declare a push on those two, even though they created to big misses on the must start list. Both look to be back in every week starter form, although I would expect much more for AP then MJD, at least until MJD shows a little more explosiveness, but at least his drive is there.
Redskins @ Saints
So the infamous RGIII finally makes his debut. Yawn. Look, be honest, if Cam newton hadn't set the world on fire last year, would anyone be looking at RGIII to be a fantasy contributor this year?? I highly, highly doubt it. And in all honesty, Cam really didn't have a very good year in full, never hitting 300 yards after week 4. And he had a very experienced, highly motivated, man child WR to depend on. What's RGIII have to depend on?? Pierre "I'm only relevant because I used to play with Peyton" Garcon?? Child please!! Can he be good, hell yes he can, but not with the team he has around him right now, the weapons just aren't there, period.
Must Starts- Brees, Graham, Colston, Hartley. Fred Davis
work in a pinch- Sproles, Ingram, Saint's D. Helu, Cundiff
sits- RGIII, Royster, Morris, Garcon, S. Moss, WASH D. P. Thomas, D. Henderson, Lance Moore
My pick- Saints 27, 'Skins 9
My first big miss. And boy did I miss on it big time. I really wish I could’ve watched this game instead of driving through middle Nebraska, so I could get an accurate read on Griffin, but when a third of your yards come on one play, I’m a little suspect. But he did play well, and is roster worthy, unlike what I thought he’d be. And in typical Shanny form, he starts the least athletic RB he has, and gets a productive day out of him. Gawd only knows what he’ll do next week. I would like to point out though, that the Saints offense is barely a shadow of what it was the past few years, as predicted, and no, I’m not giving all the credit to the ‘Skins D, they simply didn’t play like they used to.
Bills @ Jets
Must starts- Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson, Lindell. Folk
work in a pinch- Greene, Holmes, Keller, Jet’s D. Spiller, Bills D
sits-Fitzpatrick, D. Jones. Sanchez, Tebow
my pick- Bills 17, Jets 13
Not going to penalize myself for an injury to Fred Jackson, although he may very well have had a crap day anyway. And no I’m not going to get all excited about Sanchez and the Jets receivers. He had a 400 yard game early last year and ended up the same old schmuck he always is (fantasy wise). But they did open some eyes to the possibility of a second WR being roster worthy in Stephen Hill. Not sure what the Bills were thinking when they came to the stadium, but it wasn’t about football. Spiller is probably an every week starter for at least the next month.
Dolphins @ Texans
Must starts- Foster, Andre Johnson, HOUST D, S. Graham. Reggie Bush
work in a pinch-Schuab, Tate, Daniels.
sits-Walter. Lamar Miller, Tannehill, Bess, D. Thomas
my pick- Texans 38, 'Phins 10
I never had a doubt about Foster playing. Pretty sure the gametime decision designation is something mandated by the injury reporting rules of the NFL for a player that misses practice on Friday. Considering it was a precautionary thing, I knew Arian would be good to go. Everything else went pretty much according to plan in this one..the ‘Phins are just horrid. Here’s to hoping Tannehill is the eventual answer and that they draft a decent WR and RB next year, it would be nice to have another team to choose players from on draft day
49'ers @ Packers
Must starts-Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, Crosby. Vernon Davis, Akers, Niner's D
work in a pinch-Benson, Finley. Crabtree, Gore.
sits-Starks, Cobb, Driver, Packers D. . Jacobs, R. Moss, Alex Smith
my pick- Niners 24, Packers 20
Glad the Niners pulled that one out, started to get a little close for comfort. Benson probably fell out of favor with a few owners, but, let’s not forget the defense he was facing, hands down the best in the league, so give the guy another shot. Randy moss is going to give owners headaches all year. He wasn’t on the field enough, or targeted enough to really get excited about, but he go the first look in the redzone multiple times. Plaxico Burres from the Jets comes to mind..so start him with a huge degree of pessimism. The most intriguing thing I came away with on this game was the usage of Randall Cobb. Often times lined up in the backfield as a “third down back”, they obviously want the ball in his hands, but he’s not a great route runner and won’t be greatly depended upon in the slot. But a guy that dynamic can’t be ignored in fantasy when he’s on the field as often as he is.
Seahawks @ Cardinals
sits-Russell Wilson, Rice. Wells, Williams, Fitz, Roberts.
my pick- 'Hawks 17, Cards 9
I had no one slated as a start in this game, and I was nearly dead right. Andre Roberts ended up with ten. Again, this was written when it appeared that Lynch wasn’t going to play, so I call another push on that one. Hopefully Turbin’s two carries for five yards put a damper on that whole thing. He’s obviously nothing if Lynch is active. Even the return of Kolb didn’t help Fitz though. Maybe next week aye?
Panthers @ Buc's
Must starts- Martin. Cam, S. Smith, CAR D.
work in a pinch-VJAX. Barth. DWILL, Medlock, Olsen
sits-Blount,.Mike Williams, TB D Lafell JStew
my pick- Panthers 21, Buc's 14
VJAX was targeted like the #1 receiver, but didn’t produce like one. Mike Willaims had a touchdown to save his day, and Doug Martin is clearly the focal point of the offense. Wouldn’t trust anyone other than martin to start on my team unless they had to. As for the Panthers? Even though they won the game, how can it possibly be looked at as a positive? I know the league has become pass happy, but to only run the ball 13 times for 10 yards in a close game?? WOW!! That doesn’t bode well for the Panthers, and it really sucks for DWILL and JSTEW owners. If the actually won that way, why would they be looking to change it before they’re forced to? Let the CAR RB’s have a good week on your bench before ever considering starting them again.
Chargers @ Raiders
Must starts-RDMC, Sebass. Gates
works in a pinch- DHB. OAK D. . Rivers, Brown, Meacham, Chargers D, Keading
sits- D. Moore, J Ford, Palmer. M. Floyd
My pick- Oakland 24, SD 17
Well given the raiders ineptitude in the punting game (how can you not have a guy ready to long snap? And if you don’t, why isn’t he practicing it on the sidelines instead of standing there looking like a flippin idiot??) this game is a little misleading. The fact that the Raiders held the Chargers to 22 points when they could flip field position on them at all, is a testament to their defense. And its very obvious just how much they are leaning on DMC. If they can open just a few holes, or get a competent wideout, DMC is going to be scary as long as he’s on the field. Malcolm Floyd is hands down the #1 WR with Meachem simply reprising his role as deep threat from New Orleans, Gates was a bit of a disappointment, and his injury bears watching.
Bengals @ Ravens
Must starts- Rice, T. Smith, BALT D, . AJ Green
work in a pinch-Ed Dickson, Flacco, Boldin, Tucker. BJGE, Greshem, Nugent
sits-Bengals D, Dalton.
My pick-Ravens 27, Bengals 13
So Torrey Smith ended up much ado about nothing. Big play to start the game and then pulled a disappearing act for basically the rest of the game. Not really sure why the Ravens never even attempted another long strike in his direction, I would expect that to change during the season. Ray Rice was Ray Rice, as expected. And even the ageless Boldin came up big. No need for Dickson with Pita stepping up, perhaps my lofty expectations of Dickson are a tad misplaced? And the Bungals, well they were the Bungals. Not even AJ Green had a “must start” night. The Law Firm did better than I expected him to and will be a great flex or maybe even RB2 most weeks. As far the Ravens defense..I realize they scored very well, and they held the Bengals to a low score, but I was thoroughly unimpressed. The Bengals offense was on the field FAR too long and this could be an issue when they start facing decent competition.
My apologies for overlooking the Steelers/Broncos game, I completely overlooked it. But to recap, nothing really surprised me much. Dywer proved to be superior to Redman, as I’ve stated all over the boards. And may even be good enough to still be roster worthy once Mendenhall returns. Manning silenced the few doubters he has, although I’m still waiting to see a hookup deep downfield. Decker and Stokley were favorite targets, as expected, and Demaryious Thomas took a screen to the house. What to take form that? Well not much. You can’t depend on WR screens to generate points consistently, and if you take that one away, he had a pedestrian 4 for 39 yards. What it means is that Denver wants the ball in his hands, but has to create ways to get it there, Thomas isn’t forcing them to get him the ball by getting open on his own, which equals a very inconsistent fantasy producer. If he can simply master timing with Manning on one play alone, the skinny post, he’ll be a stud, but until that happens, it’ll be hit or miss every week. Look out for the Broncos defense, should be a lot of sacks there, which generally lead to turnovers as well.