Blog Entry

Week 3 predictions revised

Posted on: September 21, 2012 12:26 am
 

Treff’s week 3 predictions, Starts and Sits

Okay so last week totally blew ass, bit the big one, sucked donkey balls, all that plus some.  I’m honestly not making excuses, but I haven’t been able ot watch the games like I usually have.  Been on the road the past two Sunday’s for a wedding and my nephew’s baptism, so my analysis has been lacking.  But it is what it is, and I should’ve done better.  Hopefully the tow halves that I did get to watch, plus the time on the radio will give me enough clarity to improve this week.  Look at four week four though, as I plan on planting my ass on the couch with my NFL Sunday ticket all damned day Sunday.

Start of the week- 1-1

Sit of the week- 1-1

Pick ‘em record- 17-15

 

START OF THE WEEK-

Adrian Peterson-I’m not letting last week’s debacle get me down.  Even though the Niners are easily the league’s best defense, especially against the run, I’m still picking Peterson for 80+ and two scores.

SIT OF THE WEEK-

Darren McFadden-So to anyone wondering what’s wrong with McFadden, here’s the ugly truth.  It has nothing to do with his opponents stacking the box, it has nothing to do with his usage, it has nothing to do with him “dogging” it, but, it has everything to do with him not being worth a darn in a zone blocking scheme.  He never has been good in that system, probably never will be.   Sorry to say, but to all of you who used your first rounder on him with the hopes of him staying healthy??  You should’ve researched the change in OC’s, than you’d know the best you’d get would be the DMAC from 08-09, not he one for half the year last year.  Worst thing Oakland could’ve done was to change the blocking scheme if they planned on sticking all their eggs in the McFadden basket.  Playing the Steelers is just putting salt in the wound.

Thursday Night

Giants @ Panthers-  No Hakeem Nicks for the GMen this week.  That’s spells bad news for the Gmen, and Eli Manning.  Not doom and gloom mind you, but it won’t be all roses either, and no Bradshaw doesn’t help matters.  One of Randle or Barden will probably get 5 pts or better, but I’m not taking a guess as to which.  Andre Brown is probably the better injury fill in to look for in this game.  The Giants issues at pass coverage are going to be front and center in this game.  The Panthers only ran the ball ten times in week 1, I’d look for a similar number in this game, unless they get a comfortable lead.

A’s Newton, Smith, LeFell, Olsen.  Eli, Cruz, Bennett

B’s- DWILL. Andre Brown

Sits- CAR D, JSTEW.  GIANTS D, Barden, Randle

My pick- Panthers 28, Giants 17

SUNDAY AM

Buc’s @ Cowboys-  So which Dallas team shows up, the world beaters from week 1?  Or the girl’s college team from week 2?  I’m really banking on the former, as the Buc’s pass D has been very generous thus far.  Look for big days’ from pretty much anyone in the Dallas passing game, but specifically Ogletree and Bryant.   I can’t really say much for TB, other than that they should be behind most the game, so VJAX and Mike Williams are decent options.  If they can keep it close Doug Martin could be a decent #2

A’s- Romo, Bryant, Ogletree, Murray.  Mike Williams

B’s-DALLAS D, Austin, Witten.  VJAX, D. Martin

Sits-Freeman, BUC’s D

My pick- Cowboys 38, Buc’s 14

Rams @ Bears- Coming back against the Redskins without half their defense is one thing, playing the Bears after a loss will be entirely different.   I still like Bradford and Amendola to put on a good show, but a hobbled SJAX and an unproven rookie backup isn’t a match for the Bears D.  Look for Cutler and Marshall to re-ignite their air attack.  EDIT-once again, thanks to ImmortalWings for pointing out the probability that Forte misses this game.  Bump M. Bush up to an A-lister

A’s-Cutler, Marshall, M. Bush, Bears D.  Amendola

B’s- A. Jeffrey.  SJAX, Bradford, Gibson

Sits-RAMS D, Kendricks, Richardson.  Hester, Forte

My Pick- Bears 31, Rams 17

Bills @ Browns  I won’t be fooled by this Browns defense again.  Spiller runs up and down on them, Stevie Johnson finds the endzone for the third straight week.  However, I do believe Trent Richardson finds ample running room vs the Bills, but the lack of a real threat in the passing game eventually shuts him down as the Bills pull away.

A’s-Spiller, S. Johnson.  Richardson

B’s-D. Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Bills D, Chandler.  Little

Sits-Massaquoi, Browns D, Weedon.

My pick-Bills 27, Browns 13

Lions @ Titans-If Chris Johnson has done nothing against neither the Pat’s or the Chargers, I don’t really expect anything different when he faces Suh, Fairley, Avril, the rest of that up and coming Lions D.  Besides, javon Ringer is expected to suit up for this one, and could make the decision of whether or not to trade Johnson a moot topic..he might not have any value left whatsoever after this one.  Do it NOW.  Britt returned last week to very limited action, I would expect an increase there and he’s easily the best the Titans have offensively, if only they had someone to throw him the ball..what a shame.  Stafford and Megatron finally find paydirt this week as well.  Some reports are saying LeShoure is expected to make a big impact this week, others are wondering if he’ll even get more than a handful of plays.  My take is that LeShoure is roster worthy, but I wouldn’t start him until it’s obvious he has the job all to himself.  Until then, it’s a guessing game and nothing more, and since he hasn’t shown me anything special during any game, college or preseason NFL, I’m certainly not tying my wagon to him until he does.

A’s- Stafford, Megatron, Pettigrew.  

B’s-T. Young, Lions D.  Britt, K. Wright

Sits-Kevin Smith, M. LeShoure, Burleson.  Locker, Washington, Titans D.

My pick- Lions 42, Titans 14

Jags @ Colts Even though the Colt’s put up a win last week, I still consider them a bottom feeder team.  Much like I do the Jags.  So when two bottom feeder teams get together, we generally have either a shoot out, or a very boring defensive struggle.  I’m expecting a shootout, and since the Jag’s don’t have the manpower to last long in that one, I’m even expecting a decent game from Donald Brown in this one.

A’s-Luck, Wayne, Collie(if he plays, Avery if not), Donald Brown.  MJD

B’s-Fleener, Colt’s D.  M, Lewis, L. Robinson

Sits-JAG’s D, R. Jennings, Blackmon

My pick-Colts 34, Jags 20

Jets @ ‘Phins- I’m not putting much stock into the drubbing the ‘Phins put on the Raiders last week, come on, it was the Raiders!  Next time they get it right will be the first since Chucky left town.  As for this game, expect a heavy dose of Reggie Bush as usual, with the Jet’s DB’s locking down everything but a handful of Devon Bess receptions.  The sidebar to watch in this game is who comes in for Reggie for his breather, the returning Daniel Thomas, or the rookie Lamar Miller?  My money is on Thomas, but wouldn’t shock me if it’s Miller. Either way neither will be relevant without a Bush injury.  Expect even more Tebow chants as Sanchez struggles continue, week one was merely an aberration when Buffalo forgot there was a game.

A’s-Reggie Bush. 

B’s- S. Greene, S. Hill, Jets D.  Bess.

Sits-Hartline, ‘Phins D, Tannehill.  Sanchez, Keller, Holmes

My Pick- Jets 17, ‘Phins 10

49’ers @ Vikings-  Really don’t like Ponder at QB, don’t care for any Vike’s WR not named Harvin, and I stil expect them to put up a damn good fight against this dominating Niner D.  Peterson has a shockingly good day, not a record breaker by any means, but better than should be expected, (he did it to the Bears for years, he can do it here)  and Harvin keeps them honest enough to give him the room to do so.  Call it a “trap” game for the Niner’s D.  But, the Niner’s prevail as no one has an answer for VD, Gee you’d think eventually someone would bring some penicillin to the game and get rid of it, but no one seems to figure it out..wah wah..

A’s-V. Davis, Gore.  Peterson, Harvin

B’s-Crabtree, A. Smith, Niner’s D

Sits- Rudolph, Vikes D, Ponder.   Hunter, Moss, Manningham.

My pick- ‘Niners 34, Vikes 27

Chiefs @ Saints-  This should be a winnable game for the Saints, even without Sean Peyton.   The Chiefs Defense hasn’t gotten that shot in the arm they thought they would with all the returning players that were injured most of last season, and I wouldn’t expect that to change.  However, I would expect a decent day for Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram once again.  The once pass happy Saints are struggling to win that way, and the run game seemed to find some rhythm last week.   But it still begins and ends with Drew Brees.  Speaking of disappointing defenses, the Saints haven’t stopped anyone yet either, and what little coverage they do have will be focused on Bowe and run support, enter McCluster.  This scat back/slot receiver should see ample touches in the wide open space referred to as the Saints secondary.

A’s-Brees, Graham.  McCluster

B’s-Ingram, Thomas, Sproles, Colston,  Moore.   Hillis, Baldwin

Sits-KC D, Cassel, Charles.  Saints D

My pick- Siants 41, Chiefs 27

Bengals @ Redskins-When will I believe in RGIII you ask?  When he finally has a good day passing the ball that doesn’t rely on one big play due to broken tackles or broken coverage.  Until then, I’m not a believer, but that also doesn’t mean I wouldn’t start him in the meantime.  Whether those things happen because of his running ability and what that causes in the defense, or whether its his running itself that generates the points, he’s a fantasy starter until proven otherwise, but I’m not ready to say he’s going to dominate the NFL after two somewhat decent performances in my book.  I’m still unimpressed with his passing, but then again, I haven’t watched a full game on him yet either, so take it for what you will.   Regardless, the Bengals won’t put up much resistance defensively, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Bengals offense can keep up now that the Redskins will be without Orakpo and Carricker.  Doubtful.

A’s-RGIII, Morris, Garcon (assuming he plays).  AJ Green, Hawkins

B’s-BJGE, Greshem, Dalton.  Fred Davis.

Sits-WASH D.  Bengals D.

My pick- Redskins 31, Bengals 24

SUNDAY PM

Falcons @ Chargers-  I totally whiffed on posting this game in my original blog, thanks ImmortalWings for pointing this out.  I’m going to take a big step back on my man crush for Jacquizz Rodgers, but I’m still keeping him on my roster.  As plodding as the offense looks when Turner is on the field, it’s obvious that Mike Smith isn’t ready to turn over a significant workload just yet, especially if they get to clock kill mode, or are facing an potentially potent offense with a lead.  They get conservative, and try to play keep away more so than going for the kill.  I guess it’s not a bad strategy, but we fantasy owners would much rather see the Falcons going for the jugular when handed 4 first quarter turnovers.  So hinder your expectation just a tad on the Falcons until the find that killer instinct against quality opponents.  As for this week, I’m starting all Faclons that don’t play RB, and benching those that do.  The Chargers have been a very good defensive unit, but they haven’t faced Jones, White and Gonzo yet either.  They can handle Turner.  Offensively, I don’t see much hope for the Chargers, Ryan Mathews is supposed to return..blah, never cared for him at %100, let alone his first game back from injury.  The guy has the talent, but he doesn’t trust it, and you can see it.  Floyd makes for a decent option, as does Gates, assuming he plays the full game, but those are the only Chargers I’d start with confidence.  I’m listing Rivers as a sit in this one, but if he’s your QB1, it’s doubtful you’ve got better options, so start him.

A’s- Jones, White, Gonzo, Ryan.

B’s-ATL D, Floyd, Gates (Rosario if Gates misses the game)

Sits-SD D, Rivers, Mathews, Meachem.  Turner, Rodgers.

Steelers @ Raiders-oh my poor Raiders, you lost the game you should’ve won, now look who’s in town.  I’m not even going to bother analyzing this one.  Start almost all Steelers, sit almost all Raiders.  I’m guessing Redman plays much more with Dywer currently questionable.

A’s-Big Ben, Wallace, A. Brown, Steelers D.

B’s-Redman, Miller.  Streeter

Sits- DMC, DHB, Plamer, Raiders D.  Mendenhall, Dywer

My Pick-Steelers 27, Raiders 10

Eagles @ Cards-  The battle of the undefeated birds.  Well, in reality an Eagle would destroy a Cardinal, and I’m guessing the Eagles will beat up the Cardinals here as well.  Even without Maclin, the Eagles will bring far too much firepower for the Cardinals to handle, and the Eagles D will shut down any semblance of offense form Kolb and the Cards.

A’s- Vick, McCoy, DJAX, Eagles D

B’s- Celek, Avant.  A. Roberts

Sits-Kolb, Beenie, R. Williams, Fitz, Cards D

My Pick-Eagles 42, Cards 13

Texan’s @ Broncos-History tells us that Peyton rarely has two consecutive bad games, but this isn’t yesteryears Peyton Manning now is it?  This Texan’s defense may have gotten it’s numbers from playing poor offensive teams, but now it’ll shine against a hall of famer.  They won’t shut him out, and they probably won’t get three INT’s, but they will send the Bronco faithful home disappointed.  Foster leads the way, Johnson finds a nut, and that’ll be about all they need.

A’s- Foster, Andre Johnson. 

B’s-Schuab, Tate. Texan D.  D. Thomas

Sits-McGahee, Decker, P. Manning, Denver D. 

My pick-Texans 27, Broncos 13

Sunday Night

Patriots @ Ravens-Doesn’t Bellichek have like a %99 winning percentage on weeks after a loss or something like that?  Seems like it at least.  Every now and then he needs a little refocus I guess.  If last week’s embarrassment doesn’t do that, I don’t know what will.  I’m looking for the Pat’s to abandon this little “rushing” experiment and return to their roots, the 50+ pass attempts.  It’s not like the Ravens are going to allow them to run much anyways.  As for the ravens, they NEED to make Torrey Smith a true threat.  All that route running they showed off in the preseason..where’s that been?  He needs to be an integral part of this game for the Ravens to even consider winning this week.

A’s-Brady, Lloyd, Welker, Gronk.  Rice, T. Smith

B’s-Ridley.  Boldin, Flacco, Pitta

Sits-N.E. D, Winlsow Jr., Edelman.  Ravens D, Dickson

My pick- Patriots 38, Ravens 24

Monday Night

Packers @ Seahawks-here’s my upset pick.  The Seahawks have impressed me defensively, even if I take out my Cowboys fanboy bias.  The fact is they harassed Romo to no end, dominated the time of possession and can do the same thing to Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers offense just isn’t clicking, and running into a strong defensive team like the ‘Hawks isn’t going to help them out much.  Nor will a returning Greg Jennings

A’s-Lynch, Seattle D.

B’s-Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, Green Bay D.

Sits-Rice, Wilson.  Finley, Jones, Cobb, Benson.

My pick-Seattle 17, G.B. 10.

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