Treff’s week 4 predictions
Welcome back ya’ll. Week 3 was the second disaster in a row for me. I will give myself a W with my start of the wee kin Peterson, even though he didn’t score a TD..again, double digits is what we’re after in this spot, since I generally pick my starts of the week based on players that you would normally sit based on matchups. But, the Steelers blew it for me on my sit of the week with McFadden. One run, 60+ yards and a TD was all it took..and frankly that basically all he did get. I wouldn’t be shouting “McFadden’s back!! McFadden’s back!!” from the rooftops just yet. If anything it’ll give his trade value a slight boost, potentially enabling you to actually get something of real value for him.
My pick ‘ems were once again awful as well, I could’ve broke .500 had I not second guessed myself and went ahead with the Niners over the Vikes, but I hedged, and came up empty. Such is life. At least I did foresee the Seahawks beating the Packers, not to mention saying you should go with someone else other than Aaron Rodgers if you had a decent alternative. My ability to use the Force may have weakened a bit the past couple weeks, but it still shows up in spurts.
I won’t be clogging up my blog space with full sized recaps anylonger. For a couple reasons, one, being that I have no evidence that anyone has ever read them. And, two, they take up valuable time that could be better used on the upcoming week’s games. So the only recap I’ll be giving is a quick rundown on my highlights and lowlights from the previous week, a quick listing of my record, and then it’s on to the next week, and hopefully, some serious improvement.
Stat of the Week- 2-1
Sit of the week- 1-2
Pick ‘em record- 24-23—geesh that’s U…G..L…Y..!!
So before I touch on week 4, I would like to mention that for the first itme all season, I had the privilege of watching more than one half of football, plus the Monday night games. I don’t even get the Thursday night games seeing as I’m attending my RCIA classes. (no that isn’t anything like AA or drugs, it’s adult catholic confirmation classes..trying to be a godparent for my nephew). So needless to say, I feel so much better about trying to help out other owners now that I’ve seen these guys in a little more extensive action instead of just box scores and highlights on NFL and ESPN networks. But enough about me, on to the games!
Start of the week-
Going out on a limb here with, Ryan Williams. The Cards defense alone should be enough to put the Cardinals in clock kill mode versus the ‘Phins. And with Beenie’s turf toe issues, coupled with last week finally giving Williams some much needed confidence, I project 100 yards and a score for him this week.
Sit of the week-
Seeing as how my sits of the week have bombed two weeks straight, I’m going to play just a bit safer on this one and see how it goes. Mike Vick gets my call this week, and I’ll even double it up and throw DeSean Jackson in there as well. The Giants pass rush should eat Vick-burgers for dinner this Sunday, especially on anything headed downfield towards Jackson, there simply won’t be enough time to run those types of plays, not with that offensive line.
Browns @ Ravens- Torrey Smith, need I say more? What an incredible story. I never knew he graduated college early, never knew he was basically the man of the house for his siblings growing up. In this day of me first and where’s mine, Torrey Smith is a welcome breath of fresh air. And the fact that he’s damned fine WR is pretty nice too. I’m truly hoping last week was a wakeup call to the Ravens coaching staff, but more specifically to Joe Flacco. Throw him the ball, he won’t let you fail. I’m projecting another big week for Torrey Smith, especially with Sheldon Brown still nursing injuries.
A’s-Flacco, T. Smith, Ray Rice, Raven’s D
B’s-Boldin, Pitta. Trent Richardson
Sits- Dickson. Clev D, Weedon, Little.
My pick-Ravens 38, Browns 10
Raiders @ Broncos- Okay, so DMC finally broke free and got his owners some points, at the same time making me look a fool. But if you saw that run, yes he made a great move to jock strap the safety, but that’s not a play you can ever count on happening again. No way another defense parts like the red sea after seeing that one on tape. And DMC struggled the rest of the game, gaining only 49 yards on 17 carries, that’s the stat to pay attention to, not the one long run.
Denver’s defense has been exposed lately, most notably the secondary, too bad DHB is in his own Land of Oz right now, but things are looking up a bit for Streeter, as Denarious Moore will no doubt draw Chump Bailey in coverage more often than not.
As for the Donkeys? Well, Peyton isn’t Peyton any longer, that much is obvious, but he’s still better than most QB’s in this league, and as the weeks go by, and he gets more and more accustomed to Decker and Thomas, the points will come. Playing the Raiders should be a nice start to that. If Tannehill and Hartline can go for a buck on these guys, Manning/Decker/Thomas should be able to as well. I would avoid Denver RB’s in this one if at all possible. McGahee’s status is currently up in the air, and his backups haven’t shown much to get excited about yet. Should be quite a few fake points to be had in this game
A’s- D. Thomas, E. Decker, Manning. Streeter
B’s- Tamme. Palmer, Moore, DMC
Sits- Denver D, Dnever RB’s. Oakland D
My pick-Raiders 35, Broncos 34
Niner’s @ Jets- What an awful time to lose Revis for the season. Not that there’s ever a good time, but with a pissed off Niner’s team coming to town? Not to mention the entire Jet’s offense is in shambles. This should really be a blow out, anything less would really shock me.
A’s- V.D., Gore, Niner’s D.
B’s-Crabtree, Randy Moss, Alex Smith. Holmes
Sits-Manningham. Stephen Hill, S. Green, Balai Powell, Keller
My pick-Niner’s- 28, Jets 6
Panthers @ Falcons- So cam newton owners got an unpleasant wake up call last week. And that’s what you get with a young QB, I don’t care how many times he fuax rips his jersey exposing a make believe Superman ensignia. His game revolves around breaking down the defense through his ability to extend plays, and when that’s the case, eventually defenses are going to learn to stop doing that. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen from now on, but it is a reminder that this guy shouldn’t have been picked nearly as high as he was in drafts. But, his potential to score 30 against anyone is still there so you can’t sit him. I’m just saying don’t be shocked when he gets another low teens score.
The Falcons are simply on fire, and if they can ever just give Rodgers the feature back role and get it over with, man what a fantasy dynamo we’d have. But until then, Turner is still a prospect for 30 yards and a score, while Rodgers is a high risk medium reward possibility. Rodger’s role is expanding, but it’s taking forever. Ryan may very well be the best fantasy QB by years end, especially with Rodgers, Brady and Brees struggling.
A’s- Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, GONZO. Steve Smith
B’s-Turner, Falcons D. Cam Newton, DWILL
Sits- Panthers D, Greg Olsen, JSTEW.
My pick-Falcons 28, Panthers 17
Patriots @ Bills-Even the best coach alive let me down last week. What was his record after a loss?? Like an 85 win percentage or something like that?? I wonder what it is after back to back losses?? Apparently there’s too little evidence to have any real idea. So did week 3 teach us anything? Maybe, we did see that without Aaron Hernandez the Patriots reverted back to their old ways and went three and four wide most of the game. They had reasonable success when they tried to run, so I do think it was by design and not because the Raven’s dictated it to them. So that tells me, Wes Welker will be fine, Brandon Lloyd is still a heavy target hog, and Gronk was simply taken away by the Ravens, both in coverage and by the pass rush forcing more blocking than normal. All three should be in your starting lineups for this one.
Bills with no Spiller and no FJAX? No thanks, I’ll pass on everyone not named Stevie Johnson.
A’s- Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk
B’s- Ridley, PAT’s D. Stevie Johnson
Sits-Branch, Woodhead, Winslow Jr. Bills D, Choice, Jones, Fitzpatrick.
My pick- Patriots 31, Bills 13.
Vikes @ Lions-The Vikings pretty much shocked the world, even those that bet on the Vikes didn’t actually think they’d win vs the Niners, even I wanted to pick them to win, but just couldn’t. Bummer. Anyway, Peterson showed he’s still a beast, one five yard run in particular told me he’s all the way back. I simple dive play, bottled up, bounced outside, spun back around, shot through a hole that wasn’t even there, juked a linebacker nearly out of his shoes and was one more broken tackle away from busting a big one. Only elite talent can do things like that, and Peterson is still there. Those of you that had the stones to draft him in the second or even third rounds, enjoy your trophies. But perhaps an even bigger storyline to follow in this one is the usage of Jerome Simpson, that’s what I’ll be watching very closely.
Oh the poor 0-2 Lions, the Cardiac cats from a year ago are seemingly without their de-fibulators. And now they may be without their QB. My assumption is that Stafford will play, but fantasy owners need to be prepared with option B, especially since the Lions by week is next week, it’s entirely possible they throw Sean Hill to Jared Allen and let their golden boy have two weeks off. If that’s the case, Megatron becomes the only starter from the WR corp even worthy of consideration and Leshoure’s value doubles in my opinion. SO his owners should also be ready to place him in the starting lineup, if he isn’t already.
A’s-Megatron. Peterson, Harvin
B’s-Stafford, LeShoure, Pettigrew. Rudolph, Simpson, Ponder, Vikes D
Sits-Lions D, Burleson, Young. Gerhert
My picks- Vikes 24, Lions 20
Titans @ Texans- Just what Chris Johnson owners wanted to see, on of the tip top defenses in the NFL on the schedule..again!! Eventually he’s going to bust a long run, and there will be countless threads on message boards all over saying I told ya Johnson wasn’t a dog, I knew he was still a stud. I simply revert back to my comments about DMC a little early. One long run doesn’t mean squat. Darryl Richardson had one a couple weeks ago, where’s he now? Back on the waiver wire, where he belonged in the first place. If you want a RB from this team, go get Ringer before it’s obvious to everyone else that he’ll be taking the bulk of Johnson’s carries. Just don’t start him yet. Oh, start Kenny Britt in this one, long plays might not mean squat in the long term, but week to week they are gold, and not only is he due for one, but the Titans will be throwing often.
Foster, Foster and Foster. All you need to know. Sprinkle in the occasional bomb from Schuab to Johnson, rack up a win and go home. Who says it’s hard to win in the NFL??
A’s-Foster, Andre Johnson, TEXANS D. Britt
Sits- Daniels, Tate. Chris Johnson, Locker, Ringer, Washington
My pick- Texans 24, Titans 10
Chargers @ Chiefs- Wow, did Jammal Charles show up or what? Wish I had been watching that one, so I could get an accurate read on what was so different between week 3 and weeks 1 & 2. Regardless, you cannot bench Charles again….ever, that potential is just too great. Well maybe if the Niner’s or Texans are on the schedule it could be considered, but otherwise, he’s a starter. The same cannot be said for anyone else on the entire roster.
The Chargers live and die on Rivers, it’s just too bad that he no longer has a true go to WR, nor is was he all that stable to begin with. There was a point a couple years back where was entering that territory that he was actually making crap WR’s look like studs, but that didn’t last long. I’m sure the ability is still there, but it’s not going to show up very often. Start him with caution, as well as any other Chargers. I do think the Chargers win this game, but it’s ugly all the way around.
A’s- Charles. Chargers D.
B’s-Mathews, Rivers, Gates. Bowe, Chiefs D
Sits-Floyd, Meachem. Cassel, Baldwin, McCluster.
My pick- Chargers 17, Chiefs 13
Seahawks @ Rams- After finally getting an extended look at this ‘Hawks defense, I must say I’m thoroughly impressed. But I’m equally as disgusted by that offense. Every time Wilson wen tot pass..that was just ugly. The O-line might be able to run block, but they can’t pass protect for anything. And on top of that, none of the WR’s even looked like they cared to be there, save for Golden Tate, and he’s just not good enough to be that difference maker in fantasy land. So I won’t be listing anyone from Seattle as s tarter other than the D and Lynch until proven otherwise.
As for the Rams? Still haven’t seen enough of them to get an accurate read, but Amendola jumps off the stat sheet, and SJAX is as rock steady for 8-12 points as you can get, usually. And if Gibson can just get going, Bradford can finally step up to being truly roster worthy instead of a fringe guy.
A’s-Lynch, ‘Hawks D
B’s-SJAX, Amendola, Rams D
Sits-Russel Wilson, Rice, Tate, McCoy. Gibson, Bradford.
My pick-Seahawks 17, Rams 10
‘Phins @ Cardinals- It may finally be time to say the Cardinals are for real. I was truly shocked that they were able to not only beat the Eagles but to completely dominate them. It was almost pathetic how the Cardinals defense just tossed aside any threat the Eagles had. This could be interesting going forward. But, much like Seattle, there’ s not much to like offensively here. Hopefully this turf toe injury to Beenie lights a fire under Ryan Williams which MIGHT finally break Fitzgerald free a little as well. Kolb finally appears to be comfortable in his own skin, but I’m skeptical as to how long that will last.
The ‘Phins are in serious trouble even IF Reggie Bush plays, which is a longshot at best. IF he doesn’t, there isn’t a guy on the team I’d want to start this week. And I really wouldn’t’ want to start Bush either, but there are worse options out there.
A’s- Fitzgerald, Cardinals D , Ryan Williams
B’s-. Reggie Bush**
Sits-Kolb, Andre Roberts. ‘Phins D, L. Miller, Daniel Thomas, Tannehill, Hartline, Bess
My pick-Cards 31, ‘Phins 10
Bengals @ Jags- Andy Dalton has fully arrived on my fantasy radar, and I was one of his biggest detractors. The guy is a player, simple as that. Nothing about him is all that great, but he’s found that certain something that can make the average seem great. Of course, having AJ Green around doesn’t hurt, and with Hawkins emerging as a legit second option really seals the deal. I’m actually benching Romo for him in one of the three leagues I actually care about, and he’s my backup to matt Ryan in one of the others. I’m a believer.
Jag’s are just horrible, minus MJD. Gabbert is awful, Blakcmon can’t beat coverage, and when he does Gabbert can’t get him the ball. Laruent Robinson is nothing more than the most recent incarnation of Alvin Harper the Buccaneer, it’s a real CF down there in Jacksonville.
A’s-Dalton, AJ Green, Hawkins. MJD
B’s-Bengals D, BJGE, Greshem.
Sits-Jag’s D, Blakmon, Gabbert, Mercedes Lewis
My pick- Bengals 24, Jag’s 10
Saints @ Green Bay- even when faced with what should’ve been a fairly easy win, the saints can’t get it done without Sean Peyton, such a shame. Not even Jimmy Graham had a good game, sure he scored, but that was about it. Honestly, the Saints need to scrap this pass first mentality, abandon this ridiculous Sproles project, and start smashing people in the mouth for a few quarters with Thomas and Ingram. Because whatever it is that they are doing, it ain’t working. And it’s highly doubtful it’ll get better on its own this week with a pissed off Pakers team coming to town. I won’t go so far as to say to sit Brees, he’s proven too much against better defenses over his time for that, but until things change in New Orleans he’s not an automatic like he used to be, and neither are any of his receivers.
I sure hope someone snuck in a commercial sized jug of Vaseline with the Packers cheese order this week, cause that ass raping on Monday night had to sting something fierce. I have never seen anything that ridiculous in my 20+ years of watching the game. And anyone who says the recent movement on the official’s lockout negotiations wasn’t a direct result of it, is quite frankly full of bunk. As for the game this week, now is when I think Aaron Rodgers finally gets back on track. Maybe it took this monumental screw job to wake him up and realize that defenses won’t just fall at his feet because he’s the league MVP? Maybe it’ll refocus him a little. Let’s hope so, because he’s been far from what was expected for those that wasted a top 3-5 pick on him attempting to prove everyone wrong about drafting a QB in the first round.
A’s- Rodgers,Jennings, Nelson. Jimmy Graham
B’s- Finley, Cobb. Brees, Colston, Moore, Sproles
Sits-James Jones, Benson, Green Bay D. Saints D, Thomas, Ingram.
My pick- Packers 42, Saints 27.
Redskins @ Buccaneers-RGIII had yet another lackluster game, and it still resulted in 20+ points. I can’t seem to figure it out, but there’s something severely lacking here, and eventually it’s going to translate into fantasy losses. But, like I said last week, until that happens you continue rolling with him. It’d be great if Alfred Morris would show up again, or if Shanny would finally realize that he’s the least talented RB on the roster and start giving the rock to Helu and Royster, either way would be nice. Garcon’s status needs to be checked early and often Sunday morning, have either a late alternative ready, or be prepared to start a player form the morning games just in case.
I’m not sure what the Buc’s changed defensively to go from swiss cheese in the pass defense against everyone else to a brick wall against Romo and all those talented WR’s, but it sure worked whatever it was. Hopefully they’re on their A game once more, or RGIII wil have yet another baffling good day, and that’ll just make my head hurt even more. Offensively, the Buc’s do have players, they just don’t have a QB. What little glimmer of hope that Freeman had two years ago with that big season from Mike Williams is nothing more than a faint speck in the rear view mirror. He’s regressed to the point where the Buc’s need to seriously start considering a new direction at the position. And that doesn’t translate well to VJAX or Mike Williams, not even against the ‘Skins who got smoked deep repeatedly last week.
B’s-Morris, Skins D, Hankerson. D. Martin.
Sits-Fred Davis, Helu, Royster. Buc’s D, Freeman, VJAX, Mike Williams.
My pick- ‘Skins 17, Buc’s 7
Giants @ Eagles- the Eagles are lost without Maclin. Vick simply cannot continue making these ridiculous decisions and/or holding on to the ball waiting for something to happen downfield. Any type of real commitment to the run game would surely help, not to mention be a welcome change for McCoy owners. With Osi, JPP and Tuck on the D-line, Vick doesn’t stand a chance if something isn’t changed. Maclin and Reid both claim Maclin will play in this one. But the previously mentioned Giants pass rush may render it pointless as to whether he plays or not. That same pass rush will basically eliminate DJAX, as his bread and butter, deep routes, will never have time to develop.
Eli is rapidly climbing the ranks. He may not have had another stellar day, as in no more 500+ yards, but, he took a guy, basically from off the street, and turned him into a 130+ yard receiver. That’s impressive. Generally, I wouldn’t strongly suggest WR’s that are going up against Nmandi and A. Cormartie, but inthis case I’m making an exception. Nicks should be back for this one, so you lucky few Ramses Barden owners can safely toss him back into the pond, with M.Bennett, Cruz, and Nicks around, and the fact that the Giants will never stray too far from the run game unless forced too, there’s not enough to support the third WR consistently. Speaking of the run game, yet another injury status that needs to be checked thoroughly before gametime is Bradshaw. If healthy he’s a decent starter this week, if not, Andre Brown is. Hopefully he’s active and we’ll all get a good look at the touch distribution between the two.
A’s- Eli, Cruz, Nicks, Bennett.
B’s-Celek, Maclin, McCoy. Bradshaw/Brown***, NYG D.
Sits-Vick, DJAX, Eagles D. Bradhsaw/Brown***, Barden.
My pick-Giants 30, Eagles 14
Bears @ Cowboys- So, just like my Raiders, I’m a big Cowboys fan, and this instance it was bread into me, the whole family has been Cowboy supporters, so I’ve just always been that way. That being said, I couldn’t possibly be more disappointed with them. How on earth Romo couldn’t muster more than five standard fantasy points against a Defense that had been torched by Cma Newton and Eli Manning, with his full compliment of weapons available is well beyond me. Of all the supposed slam dunks on this early season, Romo tossed for 300 and 3 scores seemed like a given. But it just wasn’t to be. An dnow, he’s faces the Bears. I honestly don’t know what to expect here. The Bears always have a strong defense, so that worries me, but the best defense tha the Cowboys have faced this year, is the only one where they showed up to play offensively. Maybe that’s what it takes for this team to gain focus, the underdog role?? I dunno, but it’s getting awfully frustrating, and I’m not recommending Romo or any of the Cowboys receivers as anything more than B list starters until proven otherwise. If they shine this Monday night, then I’ll have a little proof to my “plays to the competition” theory.
Defensively, I like the Bears, offensively they’ve got a buttload of talent, possibly as much, if not more, as they’ve ever had in the past twenty years. And that’s even taking Forte out of the equation. Marshall is as good as they get, Alshon Jeffrey can be a beast if given the opportunity, Bush is just simply put, a battering ram at RB, and Cutler has all of the tools to succeed, except for a functioning brain. I can’t imagine what goes through this guy’s head when he’s trying ti figure out where to throw the ball, it’s like he’s seeing an entirely different field than anyone else on earth. I still think that at least part of it is that strange helmet opening he’s got. Take a look at that thing sometime, the top of the opening goes so far down his forehead, it has to be cutting into his vision. You’d think eventually someone would change that. But surely, that can’t be the real reason, or it would’ve been changed by now. He just simply doesn’t get it is about what it boils down to. So, much like a few other teams I’ve covered, as goes the QB down the crapper, so goes the entire team.
B’s- Romo, Austin, Bryant, Dallas D. M. Bush. Bears D
Sits-Witten, Ogletree. Cutler, Jeffrey, Hester
My pick- Cowboys 17, Bears 13.
Okay, I count fifteen games, two teams on bye’s, I think I’ve finally posted a full list this time, although I’m sure I overlooked something. By all means call me out on it, tell me I’m full of it, compliment me, whichever you feel is correct, all comments are appreciated and taken into account for future consideration. And thanks for reading.