Blog Entry

Treff's week 5 predictions, Starts/Sits

Posted on: October 6, 2012 8:01 pm

Treff’s Week 5 Predictions, Starts/Sits


Well, already 0-1 on the picks so far this week.  Dang that Rams D looked tough against that revolving door O-line!

Record thus far:

Starts of the week- 2-2

Sits of the Week- 1-4

Pick ‘em- 35-27 (11-4 last week)

Thursday night-

Cardinals @ Rams-Nothing much to get excited about here, the only make or break player on either team is Fitzgerald.  Consider the attention he draws, I never expect much, but you have to start him.  But Andre Brown has become a legit fantasy consideration as he rarely draws any serious attention form defenses and is good enough to beat a lot of single coverage.  Guess I couldn’t have been more wrong about Ryan Williams..keep him rostered just in case, but don’t play him unless you have to.

Rams, Amendola keeps racking up the catches, even though his only meaningful one came from the holder last still counts!  SJAX faces a tough test here, but unless you have two studs to start in front of him, he’s still a must start.  Don’t expect Bradford to duplicate Tannehill’s 400+ day.  Unless the game gets away from the Rams very early.  StL. Just doesn’t throw that often normally.

A’s-Andre Brown.  Amendola

B’s-Fitzgerald, ARZ D.  SJAX. StL. D

Sits-Kolb, Ryan Williams.  Bradford, D. Richardson, B. Gibson.

My pick- ARZ 21, StL. 13

Sunday AM

Dolphins @ Bengals-Considering I read next to nothing into Tannehill’s fluke 400+ yard game, it’s kinda obvious how I think this one goes.  While the ‘Phins do have a decent defense, they’re not going to be stopping AJ Green, and if they make him the entire focus, BJGE and Hawkins will have huge days.

Bengals are nothing special defensively, but they aren’t too shabby either, so a decent day could be had be Reggie Bush, probably Hartline too, but I wouldn’t get crazy after that.

A’s-Dalton, AJ Green.  Reggie Bush

B’s-Hawkins, BJGE, Greshem, Bengals D.  Hartline.

Sit’s-Bess, Miami D, Tannehell

My pick- Bengals 31, Dolphins 14

Packers @ Colts It took four weeks, but the real Aaron Rodgers finally stood up a little.  Combine that with INDY’s complete ineptitude at running the ball, and this should make for a great fantasy game, for WR”s and TE’s at least.  If you hve a GB or INDY WR/TE, I would play him, simple as that.  According to plan, this game should feature Cedric Benson in the fourth quarter, maybe a good garbage 5pts or so??

A’s-Rodgers, Nelson, Finley.  Wayne, Avery

B’s-James Jones, C. Benson.  Luck, Fleener

Sit’s-GB D, Cobb, Starks.  D. Brown, INDY D.

My pick-G.B. 35, Colts 21

Ravens @ Chiefs Perhaps the biggest thing to remember in this one is the “@ Chiefs”.  The Chiefs can be beat at home, no doubt about it, but it’s never ever easy.  Even with a more or less dominate defense and a vastly superior offense,  KC just doesn’t go down easily at Arrowhead.  I predict a low scoring game, neither team scores more than two touchdowns..get your kickers ready in this one ya’ll. Especially Tucker

A’s-Rice, BALT D.  

B’s-Flacco, Torrey Smith.  Jamaal Charles

Sits- Pitta, Dickson, Boldin.  KC D, Bowe, Baldwin, McCluster

My pick- Ravens 23, KC 13

Browns @ Giants- Poor Cleveland, they just can’t catch a break.  Rookie QB vs Tuck, Osie, and JPP..not to mention the defense is still struggling without Haden and are facing Eli, Cruz, Bradshaw, Bennett and whichever flavor of the week Caughlin chooses for WR this week.  Should be a long day for Browns fans.  My money is on Hixon continuing to be that receiver opposite of Cruz.  The only reason Ramses Barden had such a good game in week 3 is that Hixon was out, if you haven’t’ dropped him yet, please do so now.

A’s-Eli, Cruz, Bennett, Giants D.

B’s-Bradhsaw, Hixon,  Richardson.

Sits- Barden, A. Brown.  Browns D, Weedon, Little.

My pick- Giants 38, Browns 10.

Eagles @ Steelers-  This one is setup for some intrigue.  Steelers coming off a bye week, a returning Rashard Mendenhall, and the Eagles coming off a big win over the Giants.  An ugly win, but a win none the less.  So what should we expect form Mendy?  My gut says not much at all.  The Eagles are allowing less than 100 yds rushing a game, and that includes facing Richardson, Ray Rice, and Ahmed Bradshaw..not like they built that average solely vs Beenie Wells.  Not only that but I would highly doubt the coaches give Mendy a full workload to start with.  Keep him reserved in this one.  The Steelers to look at for starts this week would be Heath Miller.  The Eagles corners can be complete lockdown types, so long as they actually stick to their assignments that is.  And when the likes of Wallace and Brown are covered, Big Ben finds Heath Miller, a lot.  IF a WR scores for Pit., It’ll be a blown coverage bomb shot to Wallace

Hopefully Andy Ried saw the light after last week.  They kept giving Shady the rock, and they won, with NO turnovers.  Those of us that blew a top three (or higher) pick on Shady McCoy have to be encouraged with his usage last week, and then double that encouragement since they actually won with that gameplan.  If Ried can stick to it, it should open up both time and space for Vick to find DJAX and Maclin on enough routes to make them both fantasy relevant this week.  If not, well we’ll see the same Vick we saw vs ARZ.

A’s-Vick, McCoy, Maclin.  Heath Miller

B’s-DJAX, Eagles D.  Big Ben, Mike Wallace

Sits-Celek.  Steelers D, Mendenhall, Redman, Antonio Brown.

My pick- Eagles 28, Steelers 13

Falcons @ Redskins-  So here’s what it comes down to..can’t stand RGIII as a fantasy QB, even though he’s among the leaders in points scored.  Why?  Because he doesn’t have he weapons for fantasy success, and the jury is still out as to whether he really has the tools to take advantage of those he does have, I’m still of the opinion that he doesn’t, yet.  And this will be his first game of the year where his owners will come up short IF they start him.

What’s not to love about the Falcons this week?  Turner has finally shown some real signs of life, Matty Ice is in complete control of the offense, Roddy White is still a target machine, and Julio Jones’s hand “contusion” should be fully healed.  Oh, I forgot to add, the Redskins are giving up over 320 yards passing PER GAME!!

A’s-Ryan, White, J. Jones, Gonzalez. 

B’s-Turner, ATL D.   A. Morris

Sits- J. Rodgers.  WASH D, RGIII, Garcon, Hankerson, F. Davis.

My pick- Falcons 42, Redskins 13

Sunday PM

Seahawks @ Panthers-  All we really need to know about Seattle is Marshawn Lynch, and Defense, think of this team as very similar to the old style Ravens.  The Defense isn’t’ quite at the level, but the offense is very similar.  Lean heavily on the RB, only ask the QB to do the bare minimum, and play field position.  I’m not even really sure there’s a single ‘Hawks WR that should be owned in fake football land.  Sidney Rice is the only somewhat reliable fantasy option, and even he is a questionable flex play at best.

Speaking of that Seattle Defense, Cam Newton has a big test ahead.  The Seahawks rank ninth vs the rush, and second vs the pass in yards per game.  Steve Smith ahsnt found the end zone yet this year, and only DWILL has shown any signs of life in the backfield, and that’s not much either.  If it wasn’t quite so obvious, Cam would be my sit of the week, but any non-biased fantasy owner should already know that one, so I’ll keep it off the board.

A’s-M. Lynch, Seahawks D

B’s-Steve Smith, Panthers D

Sit’s-Sidney Rice, Russel Wilson.   Cam Newton, DWILL, JSTEW, Greg Olsen.

My pick- Seahawks 13, Panthers 6

Bears @ Jaguars-  If the Bears can make Tony Romo look that horrible, just imagine what they should be able to do to Blaine Gabbert.   This shouldn’t even be a sanctioned game, it’s NFL vs NCAA DIV III.  Let’s make this simple, start Da’ Bears, sit da’ Jag’s.  I’ll make an exception in the case of MJD, but only because McFadden, Murray, and Martin are on byes, and Jackson/Spiller play the Niners.

A’s-Cutler, Marshall, Bears D.

B’s-Forte, M. Bush, A. Jeffrey.  MJD

Sits-Hester.  Jags D, Gabbert, Blackmon, Lewis

My pick-  Bears 28, Jag’s 6

Titans @ Vikes-  All you Chris Johnson apologists who have been tooting your horns the past six days..get over it, quick.  It can’t be argued that, yes, he did it vs one of the league’s best defenses but, no chance he does it two weeks in a row versus that kind of rush defense.  The Vikes rush D is only one spot behind the vaunted 49’ers, and Chris Johnson isn’t about to change that, not with that O-line, and not with an entire games worth of film to study on the blocking scheme changes that sprung him against the Texans, hopefully you found someone willing to pay a premium on Johnson because of that one week, as he won’t have another for at least 3 weeks when he faces Buffalo.  The addition by subtraction of a passing game will help, but without Britt healthy, that isn’t a whole lot of “help”

While Johnson faces a top ten rush defense, Adrian Peterson faces the sixth worst rush defense in the league.  Expect Ponder to rely heavily on AP, and hopefully a couple of longshots to Simpson, just for good measure.  I watched most of last weeks game, (Simpson’s first of the year)  and he was used almost exactly as expected.  Three long pass plays towards him in the first quarter alone.  They obviously intend on stretching defenses with him to help open up running lanes for Peterson, and open space for Harvin to operate underneath.  If Ponder can continue taking steps forward, this offense may actually resemble something other than All Day, every day, every play.  I’m still no Kyle Rudolph believer.  Four games in, two bad ones, one decent one and one good one..i’m still selling, if I can find a buyer.  Only way youstart Kyle this week is if you’re a Witten/Pettigrew owner

A’s-Peterson, Harvin, Vikes D. 

B’s-Simpson.   K. Wright.

Sits-Rupolph.  Titans D, Hasselblah, Chris Johnson, Nate Washington.

My pick- Vikes 28, Titans 10

Broncos @ Patriots-  Love living here, an hour north of Denver and listening to the local yokels on the radio brag about their Peyton Manning-led Broncos.  Please.  Outside of the Raider game and about half the Steelers game, that Peyton led offense has struggled.  These local sports talk hosts actually think that Manning on this Broncos team can hang with Tom Brady and his Pat’s.  Las Vegas does not think so, giving the Donkeys a TD, and neither do I.  hell I’d give ‘em two touchdowns and still bet a Hooters dinner on it.  (why not right?  Either way I get to eat at Hooters!)  I do expect it to be a fairly high scoring game, but I don’t think it will be in doubt after halftime.  Regardless of your “fan-dom” it all spells fantasy success for virtually any and all offensive players in this one.

A’s-Manning, Decker, D. Thomas.  Brady, Welker, Lloyd, GRONK

B’s-MCGahee, Tamme.   Ridley, Woodhead.

Sits- Denver D, Hillman.  Bolden, NE D.

My pick- Patriots 42, Broncos 31

Bills @ 49’ers-  Another matchup that should be able to be covered fairly quickly.  Sit the Bills, start most the niners.  There, that about cover it?  Seriously though, if the Bills insist on re-inserting Fred Jackson into the lead role, they honestly have no chance whatsoever vs this defense.  The only hope is to find a handful of plays that get Spiller into open space, that or hope the secondary trips on their own shoelaces which MIGHT lead to a Stevie Johnson score.  If there is any realistic hope of a Bills TD, it lies with Scott Chandler, the one weakness on the Niners D is covering opposing TE’s.

As for the Niner’s, I’m really hoping to see an active Brandon Jacobs on this one.  I wanted to include him on my waiver pickups for the week, but I had overlooked him on my list.  My bad for that one.  While I do think Kendall Hunter would inherent the lead back role should anything happen to Frank Gore, I do think that even if Gore is healthy the entire season that Jacobs will have fantasy value.  Jacobs has roughly a %75 conversation rating in short yardage situations and the Niners are currently 22<sup>nd</sup> on converting third downs.  That will eventually translate into goal line work and vulture TD’s, regardless of who the starting Rb ever is.  But as for the game this week, Gore is still a must start, as is Vernon Davis, I wouldn’t say the same about any other Niner.

A’s- Gore, V.D. Niners D. 

B’s- Crabtree.  Chandler

Sits- Alex Smith, Hunter, Jacobs.  Fitzpatrick, Spiller, Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Nelson.

My pick- Niners 27, Bills 10

Sunday Night

Chargers @ Saints-  This is one game I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on, regardless of the spread.  Both offenses can be lethal, both have been unspectacular this year, last week’s Saints performance notwithstanding. 

I do feel the Chargers defense will be the key in this one, and while they won’t hold the Saints to a low score, I do think they hold them to a lower score than the Chargers offense can put up, as the Saints should be pretty helpless regardless of what SD wants to do.  The problem here will be picking which players will have the scores, as all should have ample opportunities.  Brees and Rivers are must starts, as are Colston and Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham for the Saints.  And Malcolm Floyd, Gates and Mathews should all have productive days.  I refuse to believe that Jackie Battle is actually going to be stealing any real time form Mathews, and I even think this might be the week that Meachem finally catches a long pass or two, one for a score, just to stick it to his old team.

A’s- Brees, Colston, Graham, Moore.  Rivers, Floyd, Gates, Mathews

B’s-Sproles.  Meachem.

Sits- NO D, Ingram, Thomas.  SD D.  J. Battle.

My pick- Chargers 45, Saints 34

Monday Night

Texans @ Jets-the final of three games that quite honestly shouldn’t even be played.  He Jets are every bit of the mess I thought they would be coming into the year.  I still have no idea where the hell that week 1 team came from, nor where they went, but they sure aren’t this same group of guys.  It honestly won’t shock me in the slightest to see Tim Tebow playing more QB in this game, especially given the success that the titans had versus the Texan’s run defense last week.  Regardless as to whether or not that happens, the Jets have no RB tough enough to get anything done on the ground, with the loss of Santonio Holmes, they have no real threat in the passing game, and they have no threat to throw the ball to begin with, this should get ugly, quickly.  Texan’s Defense owners might win their game this week on defense alone.  What Jet’s fans/owners should be looking for here is who it is that fills Holmes’s shoes.  My money is on Chaz Schillens given his veteran prescence and more polished route running when compared to the young bucks Kerley and Hill.  Granted I don’t think any of them are starter worthy, but it’ll be a decent barometer of who to pick up/drop, if you haven’t done so already.  And luckily it’s a Monday night game, so there won’t be any reason to be fooled by a box score Tuesday morning.

And it just keeps getting better for Texan’s fans/owners.  He Jet’s D was GASHED last week by Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden, and are currently 2<sup>nd</sup> to last in rush yards allowed per game, just imagine what Foster should be able to do to them, I imagine Rex Ryan will bring a different hand to the table this week, but you can only change so much with the current players in place, so there’s no way they can shut Foster down.  The bad news is, there should be no reason whatsoever for Schuab to be forced to throw the ball much in this one.  However, with no Darrel Revis, and Cromartie historically a big gambler on double moves, I do expect one long distance Andre Johnson TD, just not many catches.  Doubtful that Owen Daniels continues his resurgence here though.  He simply won’t be needed for much more than run blocking.

You may be turning to WWE Raw by halftime here.

A’s-Foster, Texan’s D.

B’s-Schuab, Andre Johnson, Ben Tate (if he is declared a %100 go).

Sits-NYJ D, Greene, Powell, Sanchez, Keller, Hill, Kerley, Schillens, Tebow.

My pick-Texans 31, Jets 0








Category: Fantasy Football

Since: Aug 12, 2006
Posted on: October 6, 2012 9:22 pm

Treff's week 5 predictions, Starts/Sits

all good points Joe.  My view is that Chicago won't get up like that without Forte and Cutler having already done thier damage.

As for Hester..I alwats make my starts and sits based on straight standard scoring, which generally don't count return yardage or scores. 

Since: Mar 23, 2007
Posted on: October 6, 2012 9:00 pm

Treff's week 5 predictions, Starts/Sits

Treff, nice work. A note on the Bears-Jags game: While I like the Bears' chances in this game, I'm not sure Cutler will have an "A" game. Or that Forte will have a "B" game?

If the Bears get up early in this game, then I see OC Tice pulling Forte, who is still nursing a high ankle sprain, and rotating in Bush and Bell. Also, if the Bears are winning, there'll be no need for Cutler to throw much (except in 3rd and long situations). Of course, this scenario depends more on the Jaguars showing up.

Also, about benching Hester... are you sure? If the Jags need to punt on just about EVERY series, doesn't this play into Hester's advantage?

Since: Aug 12, 2006
Posted on: October 6, 2012 8:11 pm

Treff's week 5 predictions, Starts/Sits

Forgot the start and sits fo the weeks..whoops!!

Start of the week--Heath Miller.  I don't expect jack from mendenhall, and the secondary will be more than occupied with Brown and Wallace.  heath scores twice in this one

Sit of the week--RGIII.  I hav eno statistical data to back this one up, just a gut feeling that RGIII goes for less than 250 with multiple picks, no scores rushing or passing.

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