Blog Entry

Treff's week 6 Predictions, Starts/sits

Posted on: October 13, 2012 3:32 am

Treff’s Week 6 Predictions starts/Sits


Record thus far:
Start of the week:  2-3
Sits of the week: 2-4 
Pick 'em:  45-31 (10-4 last week)  (%59,  getting better after back to back double digit wins, but work to be done!)

Only have time for the THursday night game tongiht.  Will hit the rest Friday evening.

Thursday Night
Steelers @ Titans-
So I was wrong on Mendenhall, didn't think he'd be a full go the first week back and he ended up scoring the only Steelers TD on the day.  But let's not get too carried away, they're obviously easing him back into the game, Redman had just as many carries.  So he's not a sure fire starter every week just yet.  But, the Titans are a definite start for Mendy owners.  Maybe that's part of why Chris Johnson is just so terrible lately.  All of his practice reps come against a truly pathetic rush defense, so he still thinks this game is easy.  Yes? No?  ehh, probably not, but there has to be some reason, and that's as good as any other I've heard.  And if that wasn't bad enough, the Titans pass defense is pretty shoddy as well.  There really should be no reason the Steelers don't win this game handily, regardless oh how they choose to attack it, by air or ground.

Titans just stink, I'm sorry if there are any Titans fans reading, but let's be honest, your best player has regressed so far that he honestly shouldn't even be on the field.  yes your o-line is awful and that has to be a huge factor in Johnson's dismal performance, but at some point great RB's like Johnson claims he is, find a way.  Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Fualk, and on and on, didn't always have the best line, but they always got the job done.  Johnson thinks he's in that class, but has done nothing to prove it since 2010.  And the rest of the team, outside of Kendall Wright has no business even being discussed as it applies to Fantasy football.

A's-Big Ben, Antonio Frown, Mendenhall, PITT D
B's-Wallace, Miller, maybe even Redman.  Kendall Wright
Sits- Chris Johnson, Hasselblah, any other Titan that you may be unfortunate enough to own.
My pick-  Steelers 31, Titans 10



Well, I blew that one right?  Who’d have thunk the Steeler would’ve needed to play their third RB most of the game??  About the only thing I got right was the maybe on Redman.  Hopefully that’s not a sign of things to come this week.


Start of the week-Andy Dalton, most everyone expects Dalton to do somewhat poorly in this game because of Joe Haden’s return.  I see things a bit differently.  Armon Binns and Andrew Hawkins have both stepped up at different times while AJ Green was being blanketed on the other side of the field, and I think Hawkins for sure steps up this week, as well as Greshem, possibly even Binns as well.  At least 270 and 2 scores from Dalton, but 300 and three wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.

Sit of the week-Matt Schuab, I’ve read quite a few run downs that mention Green Bay has a bad pass defense, but when I check on them, I see a team smack dab in the middle of pass defense in yards allowed, and that’s counting the 446 they gave up to Brees.  Sure they’ve allowed ten passing touchdowns, a third of those were from Brees as well.  Schuab is no Brees, he’s not even Andrew Luck (362 and 2 vs the Pack), and his offense sure as heck isn’t  designed to be anything like the Saints or the Colts. Less than  250, 1 score, 1 INT from Schuab this week.


Cowboys @ Ravens-  Will the BYE week help Romo and the offense get on the same page?  That’s the burning question here, and if it wasn’t against the Ravens I would have little problem saying “yes”.  But the Ravens D is still really stout, and they force the issue, something that the Cowboys have problems dealing with, especially with that terrible O-line.  I do think the offense as a whole does better than their previous game, but it’ll still be slim pickings for most Cowboys fantasy owners this week.

Dallas has issues defending the deep ball, have ever since “Prime Time” left town.  I would look for a big day for Torrey Smith, possibly Boldin as well.  And Ray Rice should turn in his typical 10-15 points as well.  This is one of those weeks where if Flacco is your backup, you may want to seriously consider starting him.  I owuldn’t say he’s a must start by any means, but he’s a better play than many.

A’s-Ray Rice, Torrey Smith.  Miles Austin, Jason Witten

B’s- Balt. D., Boldin, Flacco.  Murray, Dez Bryant, Romo

Sits-Pitta.  DALL D.

My pick- Ravens 27, Cowboys 20

Raiders @ Falcons- So, if Oakland implemented some fairly serious changes to the running game, McFadden will be a decent play from here on out.  That’s a pretty big if.  Far too often coaches bang their heads against a brick wall with this insane notion that their “system” works, and they’ll prove it, regardless of whether the players plugged into that system have the skills or not.  Greg Knapp is easily one of those guys, so I’m not expecting any serious changes going forward, expect to continue to be disappointed by DMC.  Likewise for Carson Palmer and that passing game.  With DHB and Moore, you’ve got speed galore on the field, but you’ve got a pop gun trying to utilize it.  By the way, this is yet another example of a player not fitting the system and still not getting any offensive changes.  Simply put, there’s very little hope for offensive success in Oakland, this week, and this year.

Six weeks into the season and we have yet to see this supposed screen passing game in Atlanta.  I’ve seen a couple to Turner, a couple to Julio Jones, and one to Quizz, in five games.  The biggest benefactor was supposed to be Quizz in this “gradual transition” into a new lead back.  Well so much for that plan I guess.  Turner is proving he can still get it done, not like he used to, but he’s still being productive, especially the past few weeks.  I’m not ready to jump ship on Rodgers quite yet, but I certainly wouldn’t argue much with those that do.  Gonzalez continues to be purely ageless.  Currently the #1 fantasy TE, and no signs of slowing down.  This new approach to a more vertical passing attack has led to a lot of deep overage based defensive looks and Gonzalez has made them pay underneath, every week.  White and Julio are still every week plays, no matter who did what the previous week. What a nightmare for defensive coordinators who don’t have at least two excellent shut down corners.  Oh, Oakland doesn’t even have one.  Start all Falcons with confidence

A’s-Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez. ATL D

B’s-Michael Turner.  Darren MCFadden

Sits-Jacquizz Rodgers.  OAK D, Carson Palmer, DHB, Denarious Moore

My pick- Falcons 38, Raiders, 13

Giants @ 49’ers-  Could be a very strange game.  I could see a defensive struggle on both sides, and I could just as easily see a higher scoring game.  Hard to think the Niners won’t play solid defense, they are one of the best, if not the best, and I think they will.   The question to me is, will Alex Smith be able to find Vernon Davis and Crabtree?  The Giants don’t seem to have the athletes in coverage that could handle them, but that pass rush is killer.  My best guess is that we see a very heavy dose of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter in this one, with the occasional” keep them honest”  type of passes down the seems to Vernon or outside to Crabby.

Eli can pick apart almost any defense when given just a little bit of time,   And that’s what the line has been giving him this year, having allowed only five sacks thus far.  They won’t be able to run the ball much with Bradshaw’s slight frame, so the air game will have to get it done, look for more than the normal amount of targets for Bradshaw in an effort to get the ball in his hands away from the D-line.  A returning Nicks should help, assuming he makes the trip

A’s- Frank Gore, Vernon Davis.  Victor Cruz

B’s-Crabtree. 49’ers D.  Eli Manning, Nicks/Hixon, Bradhsaw

Sits- Moss, Hunter ,Manningham.  Giants D, M. Bennett.

My pick- Giants 17, Niners 14

Bengals @ Browns-  Andy Dalton had a little dose of reality last week.  He didn’t play all that terrible, but it’s evidence that just having AJ Green doesn’t always equal success.  Facing the returning Joe Haden won’t help much, but the fact that he’s about all the Browns defense has to offer will.  Look for the secondary WR’s and Greshem to get a few more looks in this one, and hinder your expectations for AJ Green.  The Law Firm has never wowed anyone, yet he continues to plod on for around 60-80 yards a game, nothing all that great, but better than a boom or bust pick who busts far too often would be, the loss of Bernard Scott can only help him as well.

I expect one good hookup from Weedon to Gordon this week, and a very good day from Trent Richardson as the Browns should be in the game up till near the end.  This could be Greg Little’s last gasp at proving himself before being permanently passed by Gordon in the picking order.

A’s- Trent Richardson.   Andy Dalton

B’s-Gordon.  Law Firm, AJ Green, Andrew Hawkins, Jermaine Greshem,  Bengals D

Sits-Greg Little, Weedon, Browns D

My pick-Bengals 24, Browns 20

Rams @ Dolphins-  The Phins defense surprised me a bit last week.  Everyone said they were improved but I hadn’t actually seen them up till that game.  I was impressed.  Their offense may still be a few beers short of a six pack on most weeks, but the defense has got game.  I don’t expect much at all form the Rams who will be without their best WR and still have a hobbled RB.  The only positive from a fantasy perspective for the Rams is getting a glimpse at who will be the guy to get Amendola’s missing catches. My money is still on Steve Smith who was inactive last game, so the catches made by any Rams receiver after Amendola went down are virtually irrelevant.  But it could just as easily be Brandon Gibson or even Givens.  Might be all of them, which means no one truly gets a real boost in value.

But as impressed as I am with the defense, I’m just as unimpressed with the offense.  Tannehill may someday be a good to great NFL QB, but he’s got a long ways to go, and needs someone other than Brian Harltine to step up and make plays.  That cat is out of the bag, and defenses will be keying on him until forced to do otherwise.  Here I suspect the Rams will sit back and double up on Hartline, and lean on Howie Long Jr. and Road Warrior Animal stop anything up front. Reggie Bush should continue to be a solid play as the coverage will dictate check downs, if Tannehill takes what’s given to him.

A’s-Reggie Bush

B’s-Hartline, Dolphins D. 

Sits-Devone Bess.  SJAX, Bradford, Gibson, Givens, S. Smith, Darryl Richardson, Rams D

My pick- Dolphins 17, Rams 12

Colts @ Jets-Did the Jets show signs of life last week?  Or did Matt Schuab and the Texans simply overlook them?  I’m taking the later, as Shcuab looked completely indifferent as he was lackadaisically tossing the ball to whomever and to wherever it went.  This club is still an offensive black hole.  Don’t forget, of the two touchdowns scored, one was the result of great field position off an INT, and the other was a kick return.  Sanchez still bites, Jeremy Kerley is the only somewhat trustworthy option available, and Shonne Greene sucks even worse than Sanchez does.  Bilial Powell’s time has to be coming soon.

Andrew Luck has no hit 300+ and 2 scores in three of fours games this year.  It’s time to say he is legit, and you may want to begin considering starting him if the matchups are in his favor.  I have to imagine that luck will be smart enough o not throw at Cromartie too often, which might mean a less productive day for Wayne, but may help out Donnie Avery.  VIck Ballard was the hot name after the waiver deadline, once it was revealed that Donald Brown will be out at least the next two weeks.  Adding him doesn’t mean start him.  And I wouldn’t be so sure that he’s back on the scrap pile three weeks from now.

A’s- Andrew Luck, Avery.

B’s-Wayne, Colts D.  Kerley

Sits- Ballard, Fleener.  Sanchez, Greene, Powell. Jets D

My pick- Colts 24, Jets 13


Lions @ Eagles-  This should be the most fun of the AM games, one team can’t run the ball and throws it, the other team refuses to run the ball and throws it, even though they have one of the game’s best RB’s, go figure.  Just like I said last week, the key to the Eagles offense has to be with running the ball.  If Vick can’t get the safeties sucked up, if he can’t get the defensive line to hold back a little on the pass rush, this team is doomed offensively.  They don’t have a QB that can recognize blitzes, and they don’t have an offensive line that can pick them up.  They MUST run the ball.  IF they do everything else will fall into place.  Vick is deadly when given a decent pocket and itme ot find Maclin and DJAX

The Lions can’t run the ball, that much has been proven.  Sure they may have the occasional game where they appear ot be able to, but realistically, it’s not their style.  LeShoure may very well be a great downhill runner, but won’t get enough shots in this offense to ever be a consistent fantasy player, not unless he becomes a true threat in the passing game.  LeShoure owners, keep a watchful eye on the progress of Jahvid Best, and start looking for a trade partner if you even think he’ll get cleared.  He may not steal LeShoure’s job, but his presence will be enough to make you leery of ever starting him, so you may as well get some value for him while you can.  Calvin Johnson has been disappointing to say the least, but there’s no way a man that gifted stays down for long, stay the course and don’t sell low on him.

A’s-Calvin Johnson, Mathew Stafford.  Maclin, McCoy

B’s-Pettigrew.  DJAX, Vick, Celek

Sits-Lions D, T. Young, Burleson..  Eagles D,

My pick-Eagles 38, Lions 31

Chiefs @ Buccaneers-well here’s a quick one.  With Brady Quinn taking the helm, the Cheifs will be even more unbalanced towards the run than they usually are.  Wouldn’t even consider Bowe, Baldwin or anyone else that doesn’t get the ball handed to them.

Josh Freeman is beyond disappointing.  Two consecutive years he’s regressed.  Not even the addition of a “big time” WR has really helped.  It may have stabilized the free fall, but Freeman still isn’t producing the way we all thought he might two and half years ago after that big year between he and Mike Williams.  Further complicating matters, Doug Martin has truly shown that he was all hype.  I’m no big fan of Legarrette Blount, but I can’t for the life of my understand why Doug Martin is starting and Blount is coming off the bench.  Not impressed whatsoever with what I’ve seen from Doug Martin, if you can still find a taker, go for it, and then try and get Blount to take his place, before it happens in reality.  I’ll keep Doug Martin on the B list, just because of opportunity for touches, but any real production is questionable

A’s- Jamaal Charles, KC D

B’s- VJAX, D Martin, TB D. 

Sits-Mike Williams, Blount, Freeman.  Bowe, Baldwin, Quinn

My pick- KC 13, TB 7


Bills @ Cardinals-The Cards have been slightly exposed, but they aren’t a total fraud.  That defense is still a legit D, Kolb is still looking more or less comfortable, and they still have Fitz.  Too bad they’re down to their third and fourth, maybe even fifth options at RB.  What sucks the most for us fantasy owners, is that there will be no one true RB on this team.  Stephen Howlings will get 5-8 touches, William Powell will get 5-10, and Alfonso Smith will snag a handful as well.  All this confusion, and a week where they have the best possible chance ot get something going on the ground facing the Bills.  Someone is going to have a good day here.  I’m putting my money on William Powell, but it’s a really small amount of money.

There is only one reason to justify this timeshare between CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, and it ocmes down to injury possibilities.  I can only assume the Bills staff thinks splitting touches evenly decreases the chances of either of them getting hurt.  Personally I think that doesn’t do sqwat, as the chances of getting hurt aren’t necessarily cumulative form play to play, and it can happen at any given time.  So why not go with the best athlete on the team for the majority of the time??  Hopefully it’ll eventually happen, unitl then, neither Jackson of Spiller are recommended as anything more than flex-type players, and maybe not even that this week vs the Card’s D.

A’s-Fitzgerald, Cards D.

B’s-Wiliam Powell, Andre Roberts.  CJ Spiller, Steve Johnson, Chandler

Sit’s-Stephens-Howling, Alfonso Smith, Kolb.  Bills D, Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson.

My pick-Card’s 24, Bills 14

Patriots @ Seahawks-  Plenty of drama in this one, added to by the lack of answers from the Pat’s.  16 players listed as questionable on the Pat’s injury report this Friday, SIXTEEN!!  Including Welker, Hernandez, Edelman, Gronk and Bolden.  Unreal.  Add to it the probability that both Welker and Hernandez do play, will it go back to what we saw in weeks 1 & 2?  Or was that just Bill making his point to Welker and now it’s over with?  Or, was it over with, and then Welker re-opened the wound with his ridiculous comment after last weekend’s game?  Crazy.  All we can do is hope that hot hand stays hot, and keep playing Welker until proven otherwise.  All of this, and that doesn’t even mention the fact that they’re facing one of the league’s best defenses in the Seahawks.

Then we’ve got the Seahawks.  At least they’re a very simple team to figure out from a fantasy perspective.  Start Lynch and the D, let everyone else sit on the waiver wire, regardless of opponent

A’s-Brady, Welker.  M. lynch

B’s-Ridley, Pat’s D.  Seattle D

Sits-Boldin, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez.   Hasselblah, Rice, Tate

My pick-Seahawks 21, Patriots 20.

Vikings @ Redskins-Apparently RGIII has received his clearance from the concussion last Sunday.  The rook finally got his rude introduction to NFL football, and I think it’ll have a lasting impression, at least lasting a week or two.  He will be more timid with the ball, won’t be making nearly as many of his crazy runs, and it will lead to the Redskins offense moving very sluggishly, I see lots of three and outs, unless they lean heavily on Alfred Morris.


And if they do lean heavily on Alfred Morris, I feel the Vikings D is more than up to the challenge.  Besides, I think that between Peterson and Harvin, the Vikings may be able to eliminate Morris from the gameplan early in the third quarter.  I think both of the Vikings horses have great days, both find the endzone.  IF Jerome Simpson plays, it should be little more than a decoy role.

A’s- Peterson, Harvin.

B’s-K. Rudolph, Vikes D.  A. Morris, RGIII, Garcon

Sits-Jenkins, Simpson, Ponder.   Hankerson, Fred Davis, ‘Skins D.

My pick-Vikings 27, Redskins 13



Packers @ Texans-It appears as though Greg Jennings is missing this game as well.  Looking like it might be a lost season for the #1 WR.  There’s still time to save it, there are plenty of games left.  But a groin injury that is apparently as severe as his is, isn’t going to just go away, and without a significant amount of pure rest, it will always be a big risk for re-injury.  James Jones has filled in quite nicely this time around, look for that to be hindered at least a little bit this week, as he’s not good enough to beat the Texan’s secondary on a regular basis.  Speaking of underachieving WR’s, where has Jordy Nelson been all year?  Between jones and Cobb, he may as well not even be on the field.  I don’t think you can realistically sit the guy, the potential for huge games is still there, but he’s really starting to be a thorn in the side of many fantasy owners.  Hell, guess we can just throw a blanket over the entire offense and say the same thing, outside of James Jones.  The key story to watch here is the touché distribution between Alex Green and James Starks.  And toss in Kuhn and Saine just to be safe.  My opinion is that once Starks gets in there, he won’t come out often, but Kuhn will continue the goal line work, at least the little bit that doesn’t already go to Rodgers anyways.

The Texans really shocked me last Monday night.  Going against a defense that had just been gashed for about a mile of rushing yards, they came out throwing the ball around like they were the best show on turf incarnate.  Ridiculous, and it almost cost them the game.  If Schuab hadn’t thrown the interception, setting the Jets up for an easy score, the entire game would’ve played much differently and the Texans could’ve jogged it in form halftime on.  But they did realize the bonehead gameplan, scrapped it, and gave the game over to Foster from that point on, and ended up winning.    I highly doubt they will make that mistake again this week.  They’ll start with Foster, and end that way as the defense never allows GB to run away with the game.

A’s- Foster. 

B’s-Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels,  Texan’s D.  Rodgers, James Jones.

Sits- Ben Tate, Matt Schuab.  GB defense, A Green, J. Starks, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley

My pick-Texans 28, Packers 14.



Broncos @ Chargers-Say what you will about Peyton Manning (and him being a Bronco, I have a lot to say about him), but he’s a very efficient, very productive fantasy QB, regardless of the injury or the age.  Currently sitting in the #3 spot in QB rankings for standard scoring, it just simply can’t be denied, by even the biggest Bronco hater (me).  And with that comes every week start status for at least D. Thomas, and usually Decker as well.   McGahee is still chugging out the yards, and those late game gaffes won’t cost him his job.  Ronnie Hillman may have taken over the clear #2 job, but still has issues in pass protection and John Fox isn’t about to entrust this rookie with both his and Peyton Mannings career.  The Chargers just got blitzed by Drew Brees with, IMHO, mush lesser weapons than Manning had at his disposal, I expect the Broncos to do the same thing the Saints did.

Norv Turner may finally be ready to hand the real reins of the running game over to Ryan Mathews.  He still hasn’t proven to me that he’s an NFL RB, but he has proven that he’s the best one they have available, by far.  If you haven’t dropped Jackie Battle, please excuse yourself now, go do it, and come back, I’ll wait.

The thing I liked the most about the Chargers last week, were the hookups between Meachem and Rivers.  It took some time for Rivers to get it in his head that this guy isn’t VJAX, he’s not going to out jump many corners for a jump ball like VJAX could, but he’s faster.  So that timing, took some time to get down.  Hopefully the scores from last week are a sign that the issue has been resolved.  The one downer is that even with the two scores, Meachem doesn’t get targeted enough to really depend on, so he’s still a risky play, even if you do think that the timing has been fixed.  I don’t even really want to touch on Gates and his struggles, from what I saw watching the game, he still looks like Gates from years before, but he’s not getting himself open like he used to, and he’s not catching the ball as well either.  I’ve written this guy off too early before, and I won’t’ do it now, but if you’ve got other options at TE, I would be using them until Gates shows a few more sings of life.

A’s-Peyton Manning, D. Thomas.   Mathews.

B’s-Eric Decker, W. McGahee.  Rivers, Malcom Floyd,

Sits-Hillman, Broncos D.  Chargers D, Battle, Meachem, Gates

My pick-Broncos 35, Chargers 21



Category: Fantasy Football
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