Blog Entry

Treff's Week 7 Predictions, Starts/sits

Posted on: October 20, 2012 2:09 am
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Treff’s week & starts/sits, predictions

Recap of week 6

Start of the week, Andy Dalton-Nailed it!  Okay so I only predicted 300 and 3 scores, he gave us almost 400 and three scores.  Granted I never mentioned anything about the turnovers, but when your QB tosses like that, you’ll overlook ‘em too.

Sit of the week, Matt Schuab-For future reference, if Jamey Eisenberg tells you to start a guy that “should surprise”, sit that guy.   And it wasn’t just CBS, I read on multiple sources that Schuab was a big sleeper play since he would have to be throwing so much to keep up with Green Bay.  And what did Schuab give us?  232 yards and 2 picks, even worse than I predicted he might be able to get.  No idea why some “experts” keep pointing at this guy as a great #2 QB..I wouldn’t even roster the guy in a 12 teamer, even if I had an 8 man bench.  Chalk up another tally in my win column.

Pick ‘em record-6-8.  I took a couple of big hits on this one with the Texans, Cardinals, and Vikes letting me down big time.  But, here’s the silver lining if you’re looking for one.  I predicted the Phins Rams game as the Phins 17, Rams 12.  Actual score Phin’s 17, Rams 14, not too shabby.   I also predicted a one point game for the Seahawks and Patriots with the Hawks winning 21-20, actual score? Seahawks 24, Patriots 23.  I prefer to dwell on those two games rather than the debacles, but don’t blame you if you choose the opposite.

Year thus far-

Start of the week- 3-3

Sit of the week-3-4

Pick ‘em- 51-39.

On to week 7!!

Start of the week-Mathew Stafford.  I know he’s facing the Bears, and the Bears have made mincemeat out of teams the past few weeks, but, much like my RGIII sit of the week, I just have a strong feeling Stafford scores 3 times and goes for 325 or more in this one as he leads the lions to the upset victory.

Sit of the week-Doug Martin.  I realize this isn’t all that crazy as a sit of the week pick, but hear me out.  He’s facing the second worst rush defense in the entire NFL, he SHOULD be a must start right?  Not in my mind, I think Legarrette Blount continues to eat away at Doug Martin’s touches, so much so that Martin won’t get 7 points this week, while Blount scores at least 10.

 

Thursday Night
49ers @ Seahawks
-Last week we saw a return to the form we all know from Alex Smith.  Not sure what type of smoke and mirrors Harbuagh has been using on this guy for the past 20 or so games, but it sure was working.  But the Giants sure snuffed it out, no reason to believe the Seahawks can't do the same.  At some point Randy moss needs to stop being a "decoy" and actually be used in the game plan.  Defenses won't continue rolling coverage to a guy that gets 1 catch on 3 targets a game, no matter what his name is.  They need to start taking advantage of that.  And if they can, that should open something up for Vernon Davis who has largely been forgotten 2 of the past 3 games.  And as usual, this team will lean heavily on Frank Gore with a decent sprinkling of Kendall Hunter.  thankfully, the Seattle team won't be able to mount much offense, and they should be able to keep up the running game all night long.

The Seahawks defense is more than for real kiddos, they're damned near scary!  Very strong pass rush, great shut down corners, and very solid line backing corps.  If only they could find some sort of consistency in that passing game.   And I'm not even going to put it all on the rookie Wilson.  The blame there falls on Pete Carrol.  In the last couple of games, there have been signs that he is willing to take the training wheels off, but nothing that is really concrete.  If given the chance, I believe Russell Wilson could be good enough to create a fantasy regular out of Doug Baldwin, and maybe even Sydney Rice.  I kinda doubt the latter, as only Brett Favre has ever made that dream come true, but it could happen.  Regardless, it won't be this game.

If you’re a purest that misses the days of defensive battles, the days before all the ticky tacky pass interference calls made the league into a pass happy circus; this is the game for you.  A defensive struggle to the end, where both teams offenses revolve around hard nosed rushing attacks.  Enjoy

A's-Gore 49'ers D.  Marshawn Lynch
B's- Vernon Davis.  Seattle D
sits-Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss.  Russel Wilson, Sydney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate.
my pick- 49'ers 17, 'Hawks 10 

Wasn’t all that far off on this one, but how can San Francisco play an entire game without getting Vernon Davis one single catch?  That even sadder thing is that they didn’t involve him whatsoever and still won, leaving less motivation to make him a focal point next week as well.  It was nice to see Randy Moss involved early though, even if it was only because Manningham wasn’t active.  It still puts it on film so coordinators have to account for him.

Sunday AM

Cowboys @ Panthers-Apparently, the Cowboys used the bye week to re-implement their running game, and even after Murray was injured, they stuck with it.  They gave over 20 carries to the combination of Felix Jones and Phillip Tanner.  Most of those going to Jones of course, but it’s worth mentioning that Tanner was involved.  So there’s no reason to believe that the rushing game won’t continue in Murray’s absence.  Especially considering that the Panthers currently rank twenty-third against the rush.  But we can’t forget that the current versions of the Cowboys were built to be a passing team first.  So Romo, Miles Austin and Witten should still be good plays, Dez Bryant as well, if he plays as the Panthers aren’t much better against the pass, sitting at nineteenth.

We all know the Panthers offense lives and dies at Cam Newton’s hand, and lately that hand has been that of death.  I still cannot fathom why this team won’t run the ball, and run it hard when they have DWILL and JSTEW sitting there, ESPECIALLY with Cam struggling the way he has.  Maybe we just think he’s struggling because of what he did last year and our expectation are too high?  Well, your expectations I should say, I’ve always thought he’d fall from grace, it just took him about 12 months longer than I expected.  Unless some serious changes were implemented during the Panthers bye week, I wouldn’t expect his fortunes to change this week.  The Cowboys currently sit at the number one slot in passing defense, and thirteenth against the rush.  Not a very good combination.

A’s-Romo, Miles Austin

B’s-Dez Bryant**, Jason Witten, Felix Jones, Dallas D.  Cam Newton, Greg Olsen

Sits-Phillip Tanner.  Steve Smith, DWILL, JSTEW, CAR D.

My pick- Cowboys 31, Panthers 14

Jaguars @ Raiders-two 1-4 teams enter the Black hole, one team leaves 2-4, but they both still suck.  First off, I still can’t understand what some people are seeing in Darren McFadden.  I watched nearly every offensive play form the game last week, and he was truly bad.  He was constantly running into his blockers, not seeing the cutback lanes, and in general just being sloppy.  Oh and some of the more favorable reviews of McFadden’s day mention a couple of ten and twenty yard runs that were called back as plusses for him, well guess what, they were called back by holding penalties, holding that allowed him to break the line of scrimmage, so I’m not sure why the apologists think they should mention them.  So why do I think he did so poorly when he had a very decent fantasy day?  Well, you don’t even need to see the game, or even a single play to know why, just check the box score.  27 for 70, that’s all you need to know.  For those not wishing to do that math, that’s a paltry 2.59 yards a carry.  And his long was 14.  That’s a pathetic yardage total for 27 carries.  The will be A LOT of games where they can’t give him 20+ carries, and 2.6 a clip isn’t going to get it done in fantasy world.  McFadden is still a disappointment, and still can’t grasp the zone blocking scheme.  BUT, he is facing the thirtieth ranked rush defense, so there is some hope, this week.  I’d also look for Denarious Moore to stay warm and have a decent day.

What’s left to say about Jacksonville that I haven’t already said?  The only thing to consider on this team from a fantasy perspective is MJD, period.  Gabbert is just plain bad, and his WR’s are mostly junk.  Perhaps if Blakmon had a QB, he might be roster worthy, but I doubt it.  Even playing the Raiders the only Jag I would consider starting is MJD.

A’s-Darren McFadden.  MJD

B’s-Carson Palmer, Denarious Moore, Raiders D

Sits- DHB, Streeter.  Gabbart, Blakmon, Mercedes Lewis

My pick- Raiders 24, Jag’s 10

Titans @ Bills-here we have two teams that are much better at running the ball than they are at throwing it.  And we also have two teams that can’t stop the run.  So, get your RB’s in, and any deep threat WR’s that you might have form either team and play them as well. As these teams run, run, run, eventually there will be a couple big plays from the passing games after they suck the safeties inside the box.  Even the time share between Spiller and Jackson should leave them both as great RB 2’s this week.  And yes, even Chris Johnson is a must start.

A’s-Chris Johnson.

B’s-Kenny Britt.  Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Stevie Johnson, Chandler.

Sits-Hasselblah, Titans D.  Fitzpatrick, Bills D

My pick-Bills 27, Titans 24

Ravens @ Texans-  The loss of Brian Cushing was even bigger than I thought it could’ve been.  Surely some of it has to do with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers having something to prove, but that was a complete dismantling of what I had considered the best overall defense in the league before the game.  The Texan’s D is now a matchup play, not a must start.  And I’m not so sure I’d start them this week.  The Ravens have some serious weapons, and without their field general, the Texans could be in serious trouble.  However, on the plus side for you Texans’ fans, the Ravens aren’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively either.  And they too have lost their field general, and their second in command, and Ed Reed is slowed as well.  I’m expecting a very good day for Arian Foster and Owen Daniels, even the slumping Andre Johnson could see a score in this one.

The Ravens have always revolved around Ray Rice, and they’ll have to lean on him in this one as well.  I don’t think Flacco can hang with JJ Watt for very long if they don’t first establish a very strong ground game.  If they can do that, I would expect the ravens to take advantage of the Texan’s secondary much the same way Aaron Rodgers did last week.  Now, I’m not saying 6 touchdowns for Flacco, but three wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility, but two much more likely.  But again, this depends on Ray Rice first.

A’s- Foster, Owen Daniels.  Ray Rice

B’s-Andre Johnson.  Torrey Smith, Joe Flacco, A. Boldin.

Sits-Texans D.  Pitta, Balt D.

My pick- Texans 28, Ravens 24

Browns @ Colts-The return of Joe Haden didn’t quite go as planned as Andy Dalton shredded the Browns pass defense for nearly 400 yards.  Surely Andrew luck, Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery are salivating.  Unless you have absolutely no other alternatives, dump Vick Ballard.  I can’t recall the last time I saw a guy handed a lead back job, and then suck at it so badly.  If anyone was dumb enough to drop Donald Brown, slap them a few times, and then go pick him up.  He’s not the greatest RB by any means, but he’ll get you 5-10, which is pretty good if you have bye week problems after week 8.

Brandon Weedon continues to grow at a fairly rapid pace.  Now if only he and josh Gordon could connect more than three times a game, then we’d be on to something. But until then, both are desperation plays, as they just don’t get it done consistently enough.  Trent Richardson looks ot play in this one, but rib injuries are always a problem, especially with RB’s, look for a decent sized dose of Montario Hardesty, even if Richardson plays.  Seeing as how the Colt’s are  twenty-ninth against the run, that could be enough to make both backs worth a start.

A’s-Luck, Wayne.  Richardson**

B’s-Donnie Avery.  Josh Gordon, Hardesty.

Sits-Fleener, Colts D.  Weedon, Little, Browns D

My pick-Colts 35, Browns 20

Cardinals @ Vikings-  The Cardinals defense looked to be great at the start of the season, but they’ve been exposed the past few weeks, and a team like the Vikings with one of the game’s greatest RB’s, and a WR that is currently playing better than almost anyone in the league, that should continue, even if they do throttle back ponder a little bit.  After the first few games, the coaches gave Ponder a little slack on his leash, but numerous turnovers could lead to a slight scaling back of the offense to bring him back under control.  The targets for Harvin will still be there, but anyone taking a gamble on Jenkins should think again.  Rudolph remains an elite red zone threat, just too bad he doesn’t get many catches anywhere else on the field.

The Cardinals are forced to go back to Skelton.  Oh joy.  Been listening to ESPN radio a lot this week, watching NFL network from time to time, and there seems to be a 50/50 split between those that think Skelton will help the team, and those that think it’ll be disastrous.   I fall on the disastrous side.  He was terrible in week one, he was terrible in relief of Kolb last week, why he would magically be better this week is beyond me.  Not to mention, Larry Fitzgerald will be blanketed by Antoine Winfield, plus a safety all day.  Andre Roberts might sneak a score in here, but that’s about all I would expect.  As for the ground game, there won’t be enough of that to warrant a fantasy start either.  Powell remains the only viable option, but I’d be shocked to see him reach 75 yards.

A’s- Peterson, Harvin, Vikes D.

B’s-Rudolph.  Andre Roberts

Sits-Ponder, Gerhert, Jenkins, Simpson.   Fitzgerald, Powell, Stephens-Howling.

Redskins @ Giants-RGIII is once again a big stud.  Why though?  Is it those amazing 182 yards pasing, or that awesome 1-1 TD/INT ratio?  Probably not.  It’s his rushing numbers.  And that’s not what I want form my fantasy QB.  Sure they are great as long as they last, but as two weeks ago prove, that isn’t very long in this game.  This guy is not going to be ripping of 70 yard runs and scoring two rushing touchdowns and stay healthy, it just won’t happen.  Trade him before he gets hurt again.  BUT, like I’ve been saying since week 3, you’ve got to start him until that happens.  I like the Giants pass rush, but not against this kid, and I don’t like their secondary, so RGIII is a great start this week.  I’m not as high on Alfred Morris though.  I’d still play him, but I wouldn’t feel that great about it.  Yet another missed week for Garcon, this guy is entering drop territory with teams having bye week issues and still no solid timetable for his return.

The Redskins have an excellent rush defense, top ten even, and a terrible pass defense, dead last in the league.  So logic says Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Nicks should all be started.  Logic is usually right, and in this case I totally agree with it, start any member of the Giants normal receiving corps, including Martelous Bennett.  I would stay away from the Giants RB’s though.  Bradshaw has popped up on the injury report as questionable, Andre Brown is just returning from his injury, and the coaching staff still isn’t quite ready to turn anything over to David Wilson, and that’ snot even touching on that top ten defense yet.  If Bradshaw is a go, he’s a RB2/flex.

A’s-Eli, Cruz, Nicks.  RGIII

B’s-Bennett, Bradshaw**, Giants D.   Alfred Morris, Fred Davis, Hankerson

Sits-David Wilson, Andre Brown, Hixon.  Wash D, Garcon.

My pick- Giants 38, Redskins 20

Packers @ Rams-Fresh of his 50 point day, Rodgers faces a top five Rams defense.  Well, Houston was top five before Rodgers got ahold of them; I doubt the Rams will fare much better.  James jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, start them all.  I’m still sticking to my belief that eventually James Starks ends up being the lead back in Green Bay, I’m just not buying into Alex Green.  Green looked good enough, but Starks brings something extra to the table, someday he’ll get the chance to show it again.

Despite having only a middle of the road ranking in both pass and rush defense, the Packers really stuck it to the Texan’s, both in the air and on the ground.  It’ll be a tough day for Sam Bradford and the Rams, especially without their slot machine, Danny Amendola.  I would expect equally heavy doses of SJAX and Darryl Richardson for as long as possible, and once the game gets out of hand, a lot of incompletions and a few INT’s for Bradford.  If I had to start one Rams WR this week, it’d be Chris Givens, based solely on a hunch.

A’s-Rodgers, James Jones, Jordy Nelson.  

B’s-Randall Cobb, Alex Green, GB D.  SJAX, D. Richardson, Chris Givens

Sits-Starks, Finley.   Rams D, Bradford, B. Gibson.

My pick-Packers 38, Rams 20

Saints @ Buccaneers-Saints have finally started to play football, too bad the season started about four weeks before they did.  But, that doesn’t matter so much to use fake football geeks, we only care about how you’re scoring us points this week.  Drew Brees has Lance Moore back this week, Colston is hotter than two dollar pistol, but Jimmy Graham is hobbled.  I don’t think that’ll affect the Saints nearly as much as it will us fantasy owners, as Brees has never been really picky as to who he throws to.  Add to it that they are facing the second worse pass defense in the league, and all Brees owners should be staring at a “W” this week.  Still can’t look to any of the RB’s for consistent points, Sproles remains the only viable starting option, regardless of opponent.

Josh Freeman does indeed still have a pulse.  Most of us thought he was dead, but he lives on.  I’m not saying go out and start the guy, but last week did rekindle a little of what we thought he was going to be heading into last season.  Not only did he connect with Mike Williams yet again, but he got VJAX into the end zone twice as well.   This week they find themselves facing a bottom feeding pass defense, nice.   If they can continue this action, Tampa Bay might become a late season fantasy “boom town.”  Doug Martin continues to disappoint (as predicted)if not for the two catches for a crazy 50+ yards his day would've been another stinker.  Legarrette Blount is looking like the much more explosive back, and is definitely the red zone guy.  Hopefully you took my early season advice and traded Martin before his hype wore off, as he may not even have the “lead” back job for much longer. Savy fantasy owners see thorugh RB's that get a fluke long catch and run or two.  But, both backs face the second worse rush defense in the league, if Doug Martin had any real speed, I’d say start ‘em both, but he doesn’t, so I would imagine any scores would go to Blount and Martin won’t hit 75 yards

A’s-Brees, Colston, Moore.  VJAX

B’s-Sproles, Jimmy Graham**.  Mike Williams, L. Blount, Josh Freeman

Sits-Saints D, Ingram, P. Thomas.  Doug Martin, Buc’s D.

My pick-Saints 35, Buc’s 31

Sunday PM

Jets @ Patriots-First off, why the heck is there only ONE afternoon game??  Who made this schedule?  What’s the point of the Sunday Ticket if there’s only one game on for one third of the day??  What a letdown this is gonna be.  Anyway,

With no Darrel Revis, and Cromartie almost guaranteed to be on Lloyd on the outside, I would look for Welker, Hernandez and Gronk to have great games in this on, even with the Jets top ten pass defense.  I would look for Rex Ryan to be stuck on proving that Ridley, and Bolden thrashing his team a few weeks ago was a fluke, and I think that’ll be his main goal, stopping the run.  And by the time he realize that that’s a bad plan, it’ll be too late.

Amazingly, I’ve heard no Shonne Green hype after his massive day last week.  What gives?  Ahh, if only he was actually that good.  Really all that performance did for me was really make me wonder why his first three season were so crappy.  It surely doesn’t install a lot of confidence in him going forward.  But, at least he showed that it is possible for him to be productive, and he probably held of Bilial Powell for another few weeks.  Either way, I can’t see anything resembling a repeat this week as the Jet’s run game will be taken away, if not by Willfork, it will be by Brady, or both.  As for the Jet’s aerial assault, if you can call it that, I don’t see much there, but I do think Stephen Hill is worth a start.  The Jets will be forced to pass in this game, no doubt about it, and out of this rag tag group of young WR’s, Hill stands the best chance at beating the Patriots secondary.

A’s-Brady, Welker, Hernandez, Gronk. 

B’s-Ridley,Woodhead, Pat’s D.  Stephen Hill.

Sits-Bodlen, Lloyd.  Jet’s D, Sanchez, Kerley, Keller.

My pick-Pat’s 31, Jets 14

Sunday Night

Steelers @ Bengals-Andy Dalton continues to impress.  I guess it’s not that hard when you have AJ Green on the field.  With no “the hair” patrolling centerfield, I would look for Dalton to Green, early and often.  BJGE is a mere flex play, or desperation #2 at best this week.  Not a whole lot to explain here, the Bengals are an easy team to figure, Dalton to Green.

Steelers on the other hand are not so easy to figure out, especially this week. No Mendy, no Redman, Dwyer wasn’t as impressive as I had hoped earlier in the year, and Brandon Batch looked okay, but wasn’t all that great in his relief role last week.  Too bad too, as the Bengals rank in the bottom half in rush defense, but smack in the middle for the pass.  Speaking of the passing game, Big Ben and his two headed monster at WR seem to be clicking fairly well.  I would like to see a bit more of Antonio Brown being involved, but whatever works.  Heath Miller is the new Victoria Secret model, just a big tease.  The only difference is, he scores once you put him down, you put the catalog down, you still don’t score.

A’s-Dalton, Green.   Big Ben, Wallace

B’s-Greshem, BJGE, Hawkins, Bengals D.  A. Brown

Sits-Steelers D, Heath Miller, Brandon Batch, J. Dwyer.

My pick-Bengals  24, Steelers 17

Monday Night

Lions @ Bears-After last week’s overtime win, could the Cardiac Cats be back??  When Stafford is the QB, and Calvin Johnson is on the field, almost anything is possible.  My gut tells me that last week was the start of the Lions playing the way most thought they would headed into this season.  Granted, the Bears have an excellent defense, one that is surely capable of shutting down the entire Lions offense, but something tells me that won’t happen.  Stafford is my start of the week, and I’m predicting Calvins best day thus far as well.  There’s no number to point to, as the numbers all point towards the Bears, but I think the Lions have awoken, and they’ve got some things to prove.

Cutler and Marshall are a lethal combo, so are Forte and Bush.   But even after a week off, I don’t see them beating this Lions team.  Cutler starts off having a bad day, and in typical Cutler fashion, it will snowball throughout the game.  Forte will save his fantasy day with receiving yards, Bush vultures a score, and Cutler and Marshall hook up for one, that’s all they’ll get.

A’s-Stafford, Calvin Johnson.

B’s-Burleson, Pettigrew, Lions D.  Forte,Bush, Marshall

Sits-Leshoure, Bell.  Cutler, Bears D, Hester

My pick-Lions 24, Bears 17

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