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Chase clinch scenarios for Richmond

Posted on: September 6, 2011 11:56 pm
 

With only one race remaining until the 12-driver lineup for Chase is set, nine drivers have clinched their bids -- Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Brad Keselowski.

Here are the clinch scenarios for the final three Chase spots.
             
Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Earnhardt is currently 25 points ahead of 11th place. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Earnhardt will clinch if he finishes:
-- 20th or better
-- 21st or better and leads at least one lap
-- 22nd or better and leads the most laps
 
Tony Stewart
Stewart is currently 23 points ahead of 11th place. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Stewart will clinch if he finishes:
-- 18th or better
-- 19th or better and leads at least one lap
-- 20th or better and leads the most laps
 
A number of different finishes affect the wild card:
 
Denny Hamlin

-- With a victory, Hamlin will earn at least a wild card spot. He can still mathematically finish top 10 in points.

Paul Menard

-- With a victory, Menard would earn a wild card spot.

Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan

-- With a victory AND entry into the top 20, Ambrose or Ragan would earn a wild-card spot. Both drivers are currently outside the top 20. Ambrose is seven points outside the top 20; Ragan is 20 points outside the top 20.
 
All drivers through 23rd place in the series standings remain eligible for a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Aside from the scenarios listed above, those without an already-clinched Chase spot need a win, a top 20 spot and various finishes from other drivers to earn a Chase spot.

Source: NASCAR

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Comments

Since: Jun 10, 2008
Posted on: September 9, 2011 9:07 pm
 

Chase clinch scenarios for Richmond

The first nine racers have clinch the spot for the chase.  It shows that Dale Jr. is 9th, and he is 55 points ahead of the 13th spot.  So how can you see how Jr. has to do in this race to be in the chase?




Since: Mar 9, 2009
Posted on: September 9, 2011 9:47 am
 

Chase clinch scenarios for Richmond

I have always been a JR. fan but I am about sick of his sissy attitude. His daddy would be ashamed of him. Kyle Busch is a punk who needs his donkey kick, Jimmy Johnson appear to be a nice guy, Gordon is Gordan, I have never liked any of them. However, they go out there every race to win, not to just NOT WRECK and finish around 20th. If what Junior wants is to not wreck then stay home. I would rather him not make the chase and race to win then to act like a B and lay back like a sissy.

I guess Jr realizes that his skills will not permit him to win so he just plays it safe. When the history books are written, it will show him to be a punk living off his daddy's name. 



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: September 8, 2011 2:52 am
 

Chase clinch scenarios for Richmond

Nine (Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, and Brad Keselowski) of the twelve Drivers have clinched.  The four who "control their own destiny" are Dale Earnhardt Jr (20th or better), Tony Stewart (18th or better), Denny Hamlin (must win to insure a spot), and Paul Menard (must win to insure a spot).  Everyone else needs help.   And the only other people who could clinch are AJ Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr, Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, and David Ragan.  We will go over the scenario for each.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Tony Stewart can only qualify if they hold off Brad Keselowski or Denny Hamlin (ie, they cannot get a wildcard)
  • Dale Earnhardt, Jr. can hold off Brad Keselowski by being outscored by 24 or fewer and hold off Denny Hamlin by finishing 39th or better or by Denny finishing 3rd or worse and Junior starting the race.
  • Tony Stewart can hold off Brad Keselowski by being outscored by 22 or fewer and hold off Denny Hamlin by finishing 37th or better or by Denny finishing 5th or worse and Smoke starting the race.
Denny Hamlin can get in by either
  1. Winning or
  2. Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan not making 20th and Paul Menard not winning and
    Finishing in the following place if the following drivers wins
    1. Finish 5th or better if AJ Allmendinger wins
    2. Finish 6th or better if Clint Bowyer wins
    3. Finish 22nd or better if Greg Biffle wins
    4. Finish 27th or better if Martin Truex Jr. wins
    5. Finish 36th or better if Kasey Kahne wins
    6. Finish 42nd or better if Joey Logano wins
Paul Menard can get in by either
  1. Winning or
  2. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
    (and AJ Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, and David Ragan all not winning)
    (and staying in the top 20)
  3. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
    (and AJ Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, and David Ragan all not winning)
    (and staying in the top 20) 
AJ Allmendinger must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  3. Have Denny Hamlin score 36 points or fewer (37, if AJ leads the most laps)
Clint Bowyer must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  3. Have Denny Hamlin score 35 points or fewer (36, if Clint leads the most laps)
Greg Biffle must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  3. Have Denny Hamlin score 19 points or fewer (20, if Greg leads the most laps)
Martin Truex Jr must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  3. Have Denny Hamlin score 14 points or fewer (13, if Truex leads the most laps)
Kasey Kahne must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  3. Have Denny Hamlin score 5 points or fewer (6, if Kasey leads the most laps)
Joey Logano must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  3. Denny Hamlin finish last without leading a lap
Mark Martin must win and have either
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  2. Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
Marcos Ambrose must either 
win and have either
  1. Paul Menard finish 6th or worse (5th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 4th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  2. Mark Martin finish 9th or worse (8th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 7th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  3. Joey Logano finish 11th or worse (10th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 9th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  4. Kasey Kahne finish 16th or worse (15th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 14th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  5. Martin Truex, Jr. finish 25th or worse (24th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 23rd or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  6. Greg Biffle finish 30th or worse (29th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 28th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
Or not win but have both of the following
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr. or Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  2. Score 8 more points than Paul Menard
David Ragan must either 
win and have any three of the following happen
  1. Juan Pablo Montoya finish 12th or worse (11th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 10th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  2. Marcos Ambrose finish 12th or worse (11th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 10th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  3. Paul Menard finish 19th or worse (18th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 17th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  4. Mark Martin finish 22th or worse (22nd if he doesn't lead the most laps, 20th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  5. Joey Logano finish 24th or worse (23rd if he doesn't lead the most laps, 22nd or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  6. Kasey Kahne finish 29th or worse (28th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 27th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  7. Martin Truex, Jr. finish 38th or worse (37th if he doesn't lead the most laps, 36th or worse if he doesn't lead a lap)
  8. Greg Biffle finish dead last (42nd if he doesn't lead the most laps, 41st or worse if he doesn't lead a lap) 
Or not win but have all of the following
  1. Brad Keselowski score 25 more points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr. or Brad Keselowski score 23 more points than Tony Stewart
  2. Score 21 more points than Paul Menard
  3. Pass any two of Juan Pablo Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, Paul Menard, Mark Martin, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, or Martin Truex, Jr. in points




Since: Mar 10, 2008
Posted on: September 7, 2011 9:27 pm
 

Chase clinch scenarios for Richmond

I know the short track is not your thing but let's go David R.  I have faith you can do it!  You da man!


WVBeachBum
Since: Feb 7, 2007
Posted on: September 7, 2011 12:23 am
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