Blog Entry

Preseason Football Picks

Posted on: August 12, 2010 1:31 pm
Edited on: August 16, 2010 9:10 am
 

It's August 12th, 2010 and time for my annual football picks.  This time it will be in blog form:

AFC East:

New York Jets:  As of right now, they have yet to come to terms with self-centered Revis.  However, with or without their selfish All-World corner, this is the clearly the team to beat in the East.  They'll have competition, but with Sanchez growing a year older, Shon Greene becoming more of the man in the offense and a defense that will finish top 10 in the NFL, they'll be hard to stop.  Predicted record 12-4.

Miami Dolphins:  The abheration of the league.  They have a good defense, but their novelty act is getting old.  It's time for the Dolphins to be more than a 1 demensional offensive team, and continue to be a tough as nails defense.  I'm not seeing too much of an opportunity for either.  However, I do like their chances to contend, because defense keeps you in games, and their offensive line is one of the best in the league.  Predicted Record 10-6.

New England Patriots:  Speaking of one demensional offenses...  The runningback by committee didn't work last year, it really didn't work in '08 either, do we really think it's going to work in '10?  I don't think so.  The problem is New England's offensive line.  With a poor line, you need a feature back that make people miss tackles, or be able to run people over with sustained success.  I don't see a runningback that fits either of those descriptions with any kind of accuracy.  Then there is the defense.  This defense is one injury away from being a trainwreck, and since it's football and injuries happen without being on the gridiron, this defense has a really good chance of being a tranwreck.  Predicted Record 8-8.

Buffalo Bills:  This is just one of those teams (Like the Lions) that is just on their own program, using a flawed design where the best they could possibly do is mediocre performance.  Are they going to win some games?  Yes.  Are they going to lose some games?  Yes.  Will they be above .500, no way.  Someone needs to tell the Buffalo Bills leadership that if they will keep wasting runningbacks, until they understand that they need to have a better offensive line.  Predicted record 5-11.

AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens:  Defense wins games, however outscoring your opponent is really the ultimate goal.  This year's Ravens provide the best chance for a championship run, and only this year.  Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and a host of other defensive personel are getting old, and the time for them to make a run is now.  Ray Rice and Joe Flacco will be well respresented and provided for with an impactful o-line.  Predicted record 14-2.

Cincinnati Bengals:  I don't like Terrell Owens, let me say that right off.  But I do like Carson Palmer, and what Cedric Benson did last year.  Their defense isn't amazing, but it will keep them in games.  I think the Bengals will surprise a lot of people and meet the expectations that have been put in front of them.  Predicted record 11-5.

Pittsburgh Steelers:  If they get off to the slow start they did last year, they will be in for a long season, even after Rottenburger comes back.  Ben Roethlesberger did this team a favor, by being suspended for the first 6 games, it gives them a chance to have an identity that is not synonomous with Big Ben and something beyond The Bus.  The Steelers defense will keep them in games, but they can't win the game for them.  They start off slow and end up with a mediocre record.  Predicted record 9-7.

Cleveland Browns:  A lot of really solid moves, but they are still at least two more offseasons away from being competitive.  Their defense is decent, and against bad competition, they might have a chance, but 6 losses in division right off, is always tough to overcome.  Predicted record 4-12.

AFC South:

Indianapolis Colts:  7 years in a row, they have won the division.  Saunders, Feeney, and the rest of the Colts defense should be healthy and ready to roll this year and avenge their superbowl loss.  With the Ravens talent, now matching and in someways exceeding the Colts talent, it will be a much tougher path.  I think they'll make it 8 years in a row.  Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne are too much of a dominant force to be reckoned with.  Predicted record 12-4.

Tennessee Titans:  Jeff Fischer deserves to be mentioned as one of the best coaches in the league.  I can't stand Vince Young, I think he's a schmuck, his off-field incident this year proves that he is.  I think that Chris Johnson could be one of the best runningbacks the NFL has ever seen.  The defense is solid, always top half of the league.  Chris Johnson makes Vince Young, and that defense better.  Predicted record 10-6.

Houston Texans:  I'm not sure what to think of this team.  Their defense should be one of the strongest in the league and they are getting closer and closer to the Ravens mold.  Their offense is a very large question mark.  I think Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL.  Predicted Record 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars:  This team, just isn't a very good team.  David Garrard, while a notoriously safe QB (TD to Ints), he doesn't move an offense very well.  Maurice Jones-Drew, is the man, he's the only offensive weapon on this team.  The defense is very swiss cheese like at this point and you can't expect any consistent productivity, especially out of secondary.  Predicted Record 5-11.

AFC West:

San Diego Chargers:  The toast of the West is still the toast of the west.  It'll be tough for any other team to step up in the west, so I'm going to give them 5 guaranteed wins (maybe a loss to Kansas City at home).  There defense isn't amazing, but in the West, it doesn't have to be.  They will struggle with competing with the rest of the NFL, which is why I think they win the division with only 10 wins.  Predicted Record 10-6.

Kansas City Chiefs:  This team retooled, rebuilt, and they are really a step away from being a legimate contender.  There are many great things happening here.  I think the addition of Thomas Jones, compliments Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel in a huge way.  I think that their defense continues to improve and that they might have the best defense in the West.  Predicted Record 8-8.

Denver Broncos:  This team is terrible, and getting worse.  Their draft was one of the worst drafts of an NFL franchise in a long time.  They took big risks, without the possibility of big rewards.  Their fall from the graces of NFL eliteness has now reached their apex and they will be mired in the muck of the NFL for a couple of years.  But hey, at least they are better than the Raiders.  Predicted Record 5-11.

Oakland Raiders:  The most dysfunctional sports franchize in the world, resides in Oakland.  At least the Clippers, Pittsburgh Pirates, and PAC-10 Basketball have an excuse.  The Raiders do not.  The problem is and always has been the ownership and the leadership.  The Raiders will never have the right person in place, until Al Davis is ousted as owner.  I mean, they paid some junk cornerback the richest cornerback contract in the history of the league, and he wasn't the best or even in the top 10.  Predicted Record 3-13.

NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys:  I hate saying this, but the objective mind of mine, says that the Cowboys are loaded both on offense and defense and that the rest of the East will have a hard time competing.  They have the best offensive line in the league, the best defensive line, and one of the most underrated head coaches in the NFL.  Seriously, how would you put up with Jerry Jones and his shenanigans.  That being said, they are still not as good as the Saints.  Predicted Record 13-3.

Philadelphia Eagles:  Getting rid of McNabb was the probably the best thing that could happen to them.  Look, I get it, he gave a lot to the Eagles, but that doesn't mean that you continue to cart his tail around until his arm falls off.  Right?  Kolb, McCoy, and Jackson are a great 1-2-3 punch and they are young, so they have room to grow.  Their defense isn't amazing, but the Eagles will compete this year and more importantly make a run next year with some additional defensive help.  Predicted Record 10-6.

New York GiantsEli Manning is the best mediocre quarterback of all-time.  Nothing about Eli stands out as amazing, right?  His QB rating, completion percentage, TDs to Ints ratio, all mediocre.  Why is he the best mediocre quarterback?  He's clutch, but this year it wont be enough.  Brandon Jacob can't really run, and that line is getting old and has played their best days.  Ahmad Bradshow is a nice change of pace, but when your pace doesn't really have you change anything to defend against either back, it doesn't help.  Predicted Record 7-9.

Washington Redskins:  I'm not sure when this will turn around for the Redskins, but it'll probably be sometime after they stop hiring the next retiring offensive star.  I think we will find out, very soon, that McNabb was a product of a well developed system (Kolb was successful in it too), rather than being successful in spite of the system (which is what he'll need to do in Washington).  Clinton Portis is an old 29 and he really has no replacement.  The defense is old, the receiving crew is old.  I think everyone is old in Washington, except the owner.  However, with Shanahan at the healm, perhaps things will be changing for the better.  Predicted Record 5-11.

NFC North:

Green Bay PackersAaron Rodgers is the man, Ryan Grant is not, Greg Jennnigs and Donald Driver continue to be amazing, the left side of the offensive line should be returned their rightful owners.  There are a lot of things going on in Green Bay that should be questioned.  However, there are also a lot of things going right.  The Packer defense was amazing to start the season, last year, and then they fell apart (against lesser competition no-less).  If the Packer defense can keep their intensity up throughout the entire season, then they will once again be very successful.  Predicted record 11-5.

Minnesota VikingsAdrian Peterson's well documented fumbling problems, and Brett Favre's propensity to throw the ball to the opponents, could be quite the roller-coaster ride this year.  I mean, you can't expect last years performance to continue to be the norm, can you?  I don't think so.  There offensive line is the best north of the Lone-Star state, which makes Adrian Peterson even better, but their defense needs to make some repairs.  Predicted record 10-6.

Detroit Lions:  This is probably the biggest shocker out of all the predictions I'm going to make.  That the Detroit Lions are going to finish in a position other than last place.  They have done this before though, draft offensive weapons high in the draft, and hope and pray.  The biggest difference is that their line is much improved, so this incarnation of offensive weapons might actually deliver, eventually.  Their defense is still terrible, despite a draft focus on defense.  Predicted record 6-10.

Chicago Bears:  Welcome to the hot seat Lovie Smith.  This team is absolutely terrible.  Forte had a great season last year, but he ran the ball over 300 times as a rookie, and that never spells out anything good in the long run.  They still have no offensive weapons to surround Jay Cutler with, and now they've brought in the "everything is now guaranteed to fail" expertise of Mike Martz.  Dumb, dumb, dumb.  Rumors are that Urlacher is 100%, however, it doesn't really matter, if the offense can't score any points.  Predicted Record 4-12.

NFC South:

New Orleans Saints:  This is Nawlins' world, and the rest of the NFL is just living in it.  New Orleans is bringing back, everyone that matters to engineer a second run at the superbowl.  Their opportunistic defense will need to continue to be opportunistic (led the league in TO ratio).  I'm expecting huge things from Pierre Thomas as well, especially with the injury to his goal-line replacement.  Predicted Record 13-3.

Atlanta Falcons:  New season, first off, so new expectations, and new personel.  I think that the Falcons are a very good team.  They have a strong nucleus on offense with Ryan, Turner, and White.  Those three should be able to control the offensive side of a ballgame against any defense.  Their defense is the most suspect part of the team, but they are gritty and perform well against the teams they are supposed to handle.  Predicted Record 11-5.

Carolina PanthersMatt Moore is not the answer, the two-headed monster of D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is also not the answer and Steve Smith is not the answer.  They are all in fact the question.  That question is, who is going to lead this team?  Their defense continues to lose it's edge as they age as well.  If Carolina's line can hold up this year, then they could contend, but I'm not sure I can guarantee that enough to place them any better than I am predicting them to be.  Predicted Record 6-10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  This team is terrible, they really have no hope of making anything happen, despite end of the season performance.  They might eak out 3 wins, but I don't think so.  No reasoning offered, if you don't see it, despite how obvious it is, then even my reasoning would not make you see it.  Predicted Record 3-13.

NFC West:

San Francisco 49ers:  I think that this is a 3 team race and that the 49ers have the defense and the runningback to take the division this year.  It'll be an interesting test.  Frank Gore is bouncing back from an injury riddled season, while the defense is still as nasty as it was last year.  I'm not looking for amazing to win the West, just "good 'nuff".  Predicted Record 9-7.

Arizona Cardinals:  The loss of Kurt Warner wont hurt as much as the loss of Anquan Boldin.  Their defense is okay, but having Matt Leinart running the show without Anquan Boldin (when he was terrible with him) is going to significantly hurt their chances to win games.  They will probably play themselves out of a bunch of games.  Predicted Record 8-8.

Seattle Seahawks:  There have been a lot of positive moves for the 'hawks.  However, the biggest one is letting Justin Forsett start this season as the feature back in Carroll's system.  The defense is fast, but can't tackle to save their life.  There are many other things to like and dislike about this team.  Predicted Record 8-8.

St. Louis Rams:  Mark my words.  The Rams will win one game this year.  That's it and they play in a terrible division.  Stephen Jackson will single-handedly win that one game as well.  He's the only thing going right for the Rams, but he is not enough to make the world right in St. Louis.  But at least the Cardinals are probably going to win the NL Central.  Right?  Predicted Record 1-15.

AFC Wild Card:
New York Jets defeat Tennessee Titans
San Diego Chargers defeat Cincinatti Bengals

NFC Wild Card:
Green Bay Packers defeat Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons defeat San Francisco 49ers

AFC Divisional:
Baltimore Ravens defeat San Diego Chargers
New York Jets defeat Indianapolis Colts

NFC Divisional:
Green Bay Packers defeat Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints defeat Atlanta Falcons

AFC Conference:
Baltimore Ravens defeat New York Jets

NFC Divisional:
New Orleans Saints defeat Green Bay Packers

Superbowl:
Baltimore Ravens defeat New Orleans Saints

MVP:  Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year:  Chris Johnson
Defensive Player of the Year:  D'Marcus Ware
Rookie of the Year:  Ryan Matthews
Coach of the Year:  Ryan

Category: NFL
Comments

Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: August 20, 2010 5:09 am
 

Preseason Football Picks

NE "The runningback by committee didn't work last year, it really didn't work in '08 either, do we really think it's going to work in '10?  I don't think so."
2008 Ranked 6th overall in rushing, 2009 ranked 12th overall in rushing; 8th in Rushing TD's...i would consider that "working" 
HOU "Their offense is a very large question mark"
Ranked 3rd overall in 2008, 4th overall in 2009; 1st in Passing yards...consider also the return of TE Owen Daniels, couple that with a more experienced and healthier, albeit still young, offensive line...i think 7 wins is a major underestimation.
DAL "the best defensive line"
I patently disagree with this statement, while they ranked 4th against the run in 2009, they ranked 9th in overall Defense and 7th overall in Sacks...additionally, they fail to produce any significant amount of turnovers. Dallas does indeed have a stout defense, make no mistake...but the best line....i think not, i would have to agree with a previous poster and say hands down Minnesota takes that honor. I would also say keep an eye on Chicago's D-Line in 2010 (Disclaimer: Bear fan) with the addition of Peppers, a healthy Tommie Harris, and emerging as a solid talent Anderson opposite of Peppers...they have a chance to make a significant impact in 2010.
PHI "Kolb, McCoy, and Jackson are a great 1-2-3 punch and they are young, so they have room to grow."
The NFL historically has never been an "on-the-job" type of work environment, because of the abundance of youth and lack of experience on this team i feel Philly will struggle more than most anticipate...although i do agree there is a wealth of talent between these three, i think it will take some time for this team to mesh.
GB "The Packer defense was amazing to start the season, last year"
This is incorrect, 4 of the 5 losses GB suffered in 2009 came in the first half of the year, allowing more than 30 points in all of those games...they did however come alive in the second half of the year allowing only 1 opponent to eclipse 30 points
MIN "I mean, you can't expect last years performance to continue to be the norm, can you?"
Why not? with virtually the same team returning, and considering last year they had a very young and inexperienced recieving corps; rookies Rice and Harvin, returning with NFL experience....why not expect a similar performance?
"but their defense needs to make some repairs."
ranked 6th overall in 2009, 1st against the run...and considering they targeted a DB with their first overall pick in the 2010 draft to address their secondary needs, i can't see what needs repairing.
CHI "Forte had a great season last year"
is there some other Forte i don't know about? Matt Forte with the Chicago Bears, ranked 18th overall in 2009, averaged a mediocre 3.6 yds per carry last year and a miserable 58 yds per game...however, they did bring in Chester Taylor to compete for playing time which doesn't seem to factor in your prediction, i do agree however that Chicago's offense has a HUGE question mark looming as a result of the addition of Martz...but to dismiss it as a total failure is quite a statement, especially when the cornerstones of the offense have in their pasts enjoyed great success. Also left out of your analysis are the additions of Julius Peppers, Mike Tyse, and rookie Major Wright...i can only assume you failed to include them because you feel they have no impact on the success/failure of the team...i would disagree.
CAR "D'Angelo Williams and  is also not the answer"
Arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL, they were ranked first among all teams that featured a RB tandem in 2009 and CAR ranked 3rd overall rushing offense. With Delhomme throwing 18 int's and only 8 TD's through CAR's first 11 games you have to think that a change at QB can only mean improvement...it's hard to be an NFL QB and be worse than that; exception: any QB franchised by Al Davis. considering they went 8-8 last year, i think it's fair to say they at least tie, if not improve upon, that record.
ARI "The loss of Kurt Warner wont hurt as much as the loss of "
While the loss of both SIGNIFICANTLY impact this team, there is no way Warner is less of a loss, well maybe he would be if it weren't Leinart replacing him, but indeed it is Leinart and this spells disaster for ARI. With the lack of an established Run game, the loss of Boldin, and the loss of Warner...Fitzgerald remaind the lone elite player on this team. Couple that with the losses of Dansby and Rolle on the defensive side and you have a recipe for disaster, i think 8 wins for ARI is VERY generous, i would cap their victories at 4-5, and that's only because of their weak division.
I agree with many of your Division leaders, but not all...and as outlined above i overwhelmingly disagree with much of your analysis, and in some case your assessments are outright contrary to facts. I like the Pat's over the Jet's, The Bengals over the Ravens, i think it can go either way with Houston or Indy, and Cowboys or Giants, and i like Minnesota slightly over Green Bay...Minnesota has proven they can beat them....twice. As far as Balimore in the SB...there's not a Snowman's chance in Texas that's gonna happen :)




Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: August 20, 2010 4:59 am
 

Preseason Football Picks

NE "The runningback by committee didn't work last year, it really didn't work in '08 either, do we really think it's going to work in '10?  I don't think so."
2008 Ranked 6th overall in rushing, 2009 ranked 12th overall in rushing; 8th in Rushing TD's...i would consider that "working" 
HOU "Their offense is a very large question mark"
Ranked 3rd overall in 2008, 4th overall in 2009; 1st in Passing yards...consider also the return of TE Owen Daniels, couple that with a more experienced and healthier, albeit still young, offensive line...i think 7 wins is a major underestimation.
DAL "the best defensive line"
I patently disagree with this statement, while they ranked 4th against the run in 2009, they ranked 9th in overall Defense and 7th overall in Sacks...additionally, they fail to produce any significant amount of turnovers. Dallas does indeed have a stout defense, make no mistake...but the best line....i think not, i would have to agree with a previous poster and say hands down Minnesota takes that honor. I would also say keep an eye on Chicago's D-Line in 2010 (Disclaimer: Bear fan) with the addition of Peppers, a healthy Tommie Harris, and emerging as a solid talent Anderson opposite of Peppers...they have a chance to make a significant impact in 2010.
PHI "Kolb, McCoy, and Jackson are a great 1-2-3 punch and they are young, so they have room to grow."
The NFL historically has never been an "on-the-job" type of work environment, because of the abundance of youth and lack of experience on this team i feel Philly will struggle more than most anticipate...although i do agree there is a wealth of talent between these three, i think it will take some time for this team to mesh.
GB "The Packer defense was amazing to start the season, last year"
This is incorrect, 4 of the 5 losses GB suffered in 2009 came in the first half of the year, allowing more than 30 points in all of those games...they did however come alive in the second half of the year allowing only 1 opponent to eclipse 30 points
MIN "I mean, you can't expect last years performance to continue to be the norm, can you?"
Why not? with virtually the same team returning, and considering last year they had a very young and inexperienced recieving corps; rookies Rice and Harvin, returning with NFL experience....why not expect a similar performance?
"but their defense needs to make some repairs."
ranked 6th overall in 2009, 1st against the run...and considering they targeted a DB with their first overall pick in the 2010 draft to address their secondary needs, i can't see what needs repairing.
CHI "Forte had a great season last year"
is there some other Forte i don't know about? Matt Forte with the Chicago Bears, ranked 18th overall in 2009, averaged a mediocre 3.6 yds per carry last year and a miserable 58 yds per game...however, they did bring in Chester Taylor to compete for playing time which doesn't seem to factor in your prediction, i do agree however that Chicago's offense has a HUGE question mark looming as a result of the addition of Martz...but to dismiss it as a total failure is quite a statement, especially when the cornerstones of the offense have in their pasts enjoyed great success. Also left out of your analysis are the additions of Julius Peppers, Mike Tyse, and rookie Major Wright...i can only assume you failed to include them because you feel they have no impact on the success/failure of the team...i would disagree.
CAR "D'Angelo Williams and  is also not the answer"
Arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL, they were ranked first among all teams that featured a RB tandem in 2009 and CAR ranked 3rd overall rushing offense. With Delhomme throwing 18 int's and only 8 TD's through CAR's first 11 games you have to think that a change at QB can only mean improvement...it's hard to be an NFL QB and be worse than that; exception: any QB franchised by Al Davis. considering they went 8-8 last year, i think it's fair to say they at least tie, if not improve upon, that record.
ARI "The loss of Kurt Warner wont hurt as much as the loss of "
While the loss of both SIGNIFICANTLY impact this team, there is no way Warner is less of a loss, well maybe he would be if it weren't Leinart replacing him, but indeed it is Leinart and this spells disaster for ARI. With the lack of an established Run game, the loss of Boldin, and the loss of Warner...Fitzgerald remaind the lone elite player on this team. Couple that with the losses of Dansby and Rolle on the defensive side and you have a recipe for disaster, i think 8 wins for ARI is VERY generous, i would cap their victories at 4-5, and that's only because of their weak division.
I agree with many of your Division leaders, but not all...and as outlined above i overwhelmingly disagree with much of your analysis, and in some case your assessments are outright contrary to facts. I like the Pat's over the Jet's, The Bengals over the Ravens, i think it can go either way with Houston or Indy, and Cowboys or Giants, and i like Minnesota slightly over Green Bay...Minnesota has proven they can beat them....twice. As far as Balimore in the SB...there's not a Snowman's chance in Texas that's gonna happen :)




Since: Aug 17, 2010
Posted on: August 18, 2010 8:08 pm
 

Preseason Football Picks

if you were referring to my comment, i was. the opinion was not worth the rest of the read.



Since: Jun 28, 2010
Posted on: August 18, 2010 5:47 pm
 

Preseason Football Picks

C'mon guys lay off... Comment on the opinion not the way the article is written...Losers.

Baltimore WILL not make it to the Superbowl... Go Colts!



Since: Aug 17, 2010
Posted on: August 17, 2010 1:04 pm
 

Preseason Football Picks

i read about half a paragraph. unreadable glad i didn't spend time on it other than to comment.



Since: May 9, 2008
Posted on: August 17, 2010 12:12 pm
 

Preseason Football Picks

the biggest error in this article is the comment about the cowgirls d-line being the best! i have to beg to differ as minnesota in my humble opinion has the best d-line in the league!


vivianshoes
Since: Aug 15, 2010
Posted on: August 16, 2010 9:14 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Sep 11, 2006
Posted on: August 16, 2010 9:11 am
 

Preseason Football Picks

Fantastic points and corrected!



Since: Aug 14, 2010
Posted on: August 14, 2010 11:17 pm
 

Preseason Football Picks

I had no idea Baltimore could play in both the NFC and AFC championship game. Takes talent to do that.



Since: Aug 10, 2009
Posted on: August 14, 2010 5:55 pm
 

yo bro???

how does the bengals finish 11-5, and the titans 10-6, but you have the titans in the playoffs at a wild card spot???


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