Blog Entry

Team by Team Fantasy Analysis: Ciincinnati Reds

Posted on: March 3, 2011 8:37 pm
The Reds are coming off of winning the NL Central in 2010. When you look at how this team is built and how young it is, you have to assume that at worst they will remain unchanged. Which means 90+ wins, 6+ players at or above 20 homeruns, and 4 pitchers in double digits for wins. I like the Reds this year in the world of fantasy baseball as well, I think they should have at least 7 of their 8 position players drafted and potentially all five of their starters drafted, with two relievers potentially being drafted as well.

Projected Starting Line-up:

CF Drew Stubbs - There are two things that knock Stubbs being a lead-off guy, one is that he has really good power, and two is that he doesn't get on base enough. I think that this permanent move to the leadoff spot should be a good move for Stubbs from a fantasy stand-point. He is an excellent source of positives in his power and steals and could be a 30/30 guy as early as this year. But he is also extremely inconsistent and streaky and strikes out just under once every 5 at bats. I have him ranked between 30th and 40th.
2B Brandon Phillips - What is not to like about Brandon Philips? He will hit nearly 20 homeruns, drive in 80 runs, and steal close to 20 bases. He only strikes out once every 7.27 at bats, and made an error at a clip of one every 50 games (3 total, but has been under 10 for four consecutive seasons). He's as solid as they come and I have him ranked between 6th and 10th for 2nd basemen.
1B Joey Votto - The defending NL MVP is coming off of a monster season where he hit .324 with 37 HRs, and 113 RBIs. He's got a great eye as well, which offset his 125 strikeouts with 91 walks. He also demonstrates a good deal of speed for a 1st baseman, with 16 steals in 2010. While he should be well past, whatever held him out of the first month of the season in '09, and he's 27 years old, I think that he could top 40 homeruns this season, cleaer 125 RBIs and hit for a .330 average. This could be the start of his prime years and I have him ranked as a top 5 1st baseman.
3B Scott Rolen - 133 games last season, was the most that this aging veteran had played since 2006. Rolen ran off 8 consecutive seasons where he had 25+ homeruns that ended in 2004, since then he's been one of the more injured players in the league, especially at 3rd base. He's very consistent when he's playing and you hope that he plays 4 out of every 5 games. Although he's well past his prime, at a thin position he is still serviceable and I have him ranked between 11th and 15th for 3rd basemen.
RF Jay Bruce - Bruce was a hot prospect, but like most hot prospects with power, he's also a strikeout machine. As much as you may like him for his strikeouts, 18 of his homeruns get cancelled out each year because of his strikeout/bb ratio. That means he hit only 7 homeruns that netted him a positive result. Not good news for the home team, or for the consistency that you need from an outfielder. I have him ranked between 30th and 40th for outfielders.
LF Johnny Gomes - So you take Jay Bruce, you add 7 years and subtract 7 homeruns and you've got Johnny Gomes. He's serviceable and a threat to hit 20+ homeruns every year, but with Fred Lewis platooning with him, his fantasy value probably drops even more. I have him ranked between 50th and 75th for outfielders.
CA Ryan Hannigan - This is the year that he should surpass Ramon Hernandez in at bats and time, which is good. He's a young catcher, with good offensive skills. He hit .300, but had an OBP of over .400. In addition, he walks more than he strikes out, and average 1 k every 10 at bats. If he can steal even more of the playing time from Hernandez, I like Hannigan to be a top 10 catcher this season. I have him ranked between 15th and 20th, due to projected at bats.
SS Paul Janish - Janish has nothing to offer, but neither does Edgar Renteria at this point in his career. I fully expect there to be a platoon here and with Janish being the better defender, and not really a difference in their bats, I expect him to get a bulk of the playing time. But I'm definitely not Dusty Baker. I have Janish projected between 25th and 30th for shortstops.

Starting Rotation:
#1. Bronson Arroyo - Hard to believe that this cast off from Boston won 17 games for the rejuvinated Red Machine. He doesn't strike people out a particularly high clip, and he doesn't walk people at a particularly high clip either (less than 2 per start). He gets the job done though, and like most of the Reds pitchers, he's not an ace, he's more like a 2/3 at this point. I have him projected between 375-400 points.
#2. Edinson Volquez - He is a hard throwing potential ace of this staff. However, his wildness prevents two things from happening, getting deep into ballgames and a high ERA, which of course leads to losses. His upside his huge, his downside is also huge. He does strikeout batters at a clip of one per inning, however, he walks batters a clip of 1 every other inning. I have him projected between 375-400 points, but his upside could put up in the mid 400s, his risk could put him around 300 points.
#3. Johnny Cueto - Cueto is coming off a strong year, he has yet to break 200 innings, but he has increased his workload for three consecutive seasons and has reduced his ERA for three consecutive seasons. He's can be a strikeout pitcher at times, and at times he's a ground ball pitcher. It's confusing, I know. I have him projected between 375-400 points.
#4. Travis Wood - He is a strikeout pitcher that doesn't walk anyone with a decent ERA, so if he can get to 180 innings pitched, then I have him projected between 350-375 points.
#5. Homer Bailey/Mike Leake - Which ever one gets the #5 here, should do pretty good. I actually think that the Reds have a problem with too much pitching. Whichever one gets the job will be worth taking a flyer on.

Closer - Francisco Cordero - He's serviceable and either a stop gap until Chapman takes over, or until Massett takes over. Either way this is probably his last year with the Reds as they have better pitching on the way. I have him projected between 11th and 15th for closers.
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