Blog Entry

Predicting where free agents will land

Posted on: November 3, 2010 11:25 am
Edited on: November 4, 2010 9:01 pm
Baseball is currently in a five-day period where teams have exclusivity to negotiate with players who have become free agents. Sunday at midnight, that period will expire and free up players to talk to any and all teams.

There's plenty to like about this free-agent crop, as the top players at each position is enough to put together a contending team. Plus, there are a good number of nice backup options, too.

Below, you can find Evan Brunell's predictions on where free agents will wind up, going position by position with two names at each position.

Martinez C: Victor Martinez -- Tigers. All the noise surrounding Detroit going hard after Martinez seems legit. It's part of Detroit's M.O., filling a position of desperate need to contend and Martinez is the best option and remains capable of catching. Plus, Detroit has no major block at first or DH for an eventual switch for V-Mart as Alex Avila apprentices.

C: John Buck -- Yankees. Jorge Posada will be receiving most of his at-bats as a DH and Francisco Cervelli certainly can't start. The Yankees will flex their financial muscles on a catcher which they can bring in on a short-term contract who broke out in Toronto last season. It solves the catcher conundrum short term and leaves the long term free for Austin Romine.

Dunn 1B: Adam Dunn -- Cubs. Another popular pairing that makes too much sense. The Cubs need to strike to stay in contention even as they try to get their minor-league system in order and producing over the next couple of seasons. Dunn's defense is minimized now that he's at first, and the Cubs need someone to sky them big flies. (And if the Cubs really are not going after big-name free agents , which I doubt is 100 percent true, I'll tab Dunn to the Athletics .)

1B: Aubrey Huff -- Giants. Unfortunately, while bringing in Huff eventually paid off big time for San Francisco, he is now overrated. With Brandon Belt tearing up the farm, there's no overwhelming reason to give Huff anything close to what he can get on the market. I have a feeling Brian Sabean will do what he always does, signing older players coming off big years to nonsensical contracts. You know it and I know it. Sleeper alert: The Giants move forward with a Mark DeRosa/Travis Ishikawa platoon at first, leaving Huff to land with the Mariners .

Hudson 2B: Orlando Hudson -- Padres. The O-Dog will be on the move again, looking for his fourth team in four seasons, fifth overall. He's long wanted to join the Mets, but Luis Castillo has prevented him from doing so. The Padres plan to contend, but still need the dollars to make sense for who they bring in, and it will for Hudson to plug a vacancy at second with no viable internal options.

2B: Bill Hall -- Twins. Hall is looking for a starting job, but there are those telling him he is best suited as a super utility player. Look for Minnesota to give him a chance at the starting 2B job, but the Twins will love moving him around once they can justify it.

Jeter SS: Derek Jeter -- Yankees. I think a lot of people are going to be a bit surprised by how long the negotiations take. Despite popular sentiment, Brian Cashman is not one to pay someone beyond actual value. What he does have is disposable income that the owners can order him to pay a premium, so Cashman will do just that -- but only at a small premium.

SS: Juan Uribe -- Giants. This is one return that makes sense. Edgar Renteria isn't being brought back, even if he doesn't retire. Pablo Sandoval's struggles at third and Uribe's ability to slide to third as need be will be coveted by San Francisco, and he deserves the deal he'll sign for. It's a very weak market for shortstops, so even those that could be available in a trade (Jason Bartlett?) may have too prohibitive a price.

Beltre 3B: Adrian Beltre -- Angels. Los Angeles makes the big strike here, importing a gifted defender who had a great season with the stick. He won't hit .321 again, but he'll be a signing on the level of Torii Hunter. He's expensive but will produce and help put L.A. back into postseason contention.

3B: Miguel Tejada -- Padres. San Diego was pleased with Tejada's production after acquiring him from Houston and will sign him to play his natural position of short even though he began the transition to third base last season.

Crawford LF: Carl Crawford -- Red Sox . Crawford will spark a bidding war between the Red Sox, Angels and some other team yet to be known, plus a late charge by the Yankees (you know it'll happen). In the end, the Red Sox will win out, offering just enough to entice Crawford to Boston.

LF: Marcus Thames -- Phillies. Thames built his value this past year, establishing himself as a strong platoon option against left-handers who surprisingly held his own against righties. The Phillies are interested in bringing in another right-handed hitter to pair with Ben Francisco, and Thames seems like the perfect low-cost, high-upside option.

Damon CF: Johnny Damon -- Astros. Damon may be a center fielder, but it's in name only as he's restricted to left and DH at this point of his career. No contending team is going to be interested in starting him, but he can still land somewhere where there's a faint glimmer of a chance at the postseason. Damon can be the grizzled, scrappy veteran who can lead them to the top. Welcome to Houston, Johnny!

CF: Melky Cabrera -- Royals. Cabrera's stock is down. Way, way down. He'll have to latch on with a bottom-feeding club who gambles on his tools. Kansas City seems like the perfect place to do that. With an up-and-coming farm, he could fit in seamlessly if he takes his job seriously. If he doesn't, the Royals simply move on.

Werth RF: Jayson Werth -- White Sox. It makes a lot of sense for the White Sox to go after Werth -- they have their own bandbox and need someone who can play the outfield and who could DH in his off days. Carlos Quentin's defense needs to be hidden or moved to first if they don't bring Paul Konerko back. Helping matters is Chicago has the money to make it happen.

RF: Andruw Jones -- Braves. Coming off a strong season for the White Sox where he proved he can still bring it, just not quite as a full-time outfielder (although that possibility does exist), Jones seems like he could make a return to Atlanta. The Braves have a need to remake their outfield, and Jones seems to be a perfect piece of the puzzle.

Thome DH: Jim Thome -- Twins. No reason for Thome to leave the Twins, really. He had a strong season there, became a cult hero, has been loyal to his teams and Minnesota definitely could use this slugger back provided the two can agree on how much playing time he will get. Having Delmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau doesn't leave much room for Thome, but it worked out just fine in 2010.

DH: Manny Ramirez -- Rays . Manny is a DH and probably will find the market a bit hostile towards him. He's not upper-echelon any longer, but not many teams need a DH. After long and overdrawn-out negotiations thanks to Scott Boras, ManRam will finally sign around the beginning of spring training and coast into town to help the Rays and what could be a moribund offense.

Pavano RHSP: Carl Pavano -- Brewers. Pavano is set to cash in on his success with the Twins and is certain to be in a position where he can outdo accepting arbitration thanks to a poor right-handed starter's market. Milwaukee needs to find starting pitching and fast, and the Brewers proved last year with Randy Wolf they weren't afraid to go get it. Wolf's struggles won't be enough to deter Milwaukee from Pavano, not when a Wolf-Pavano-Yovani Gallardo rotation would do wonders in the NL Central.

RHSP: Hiroki Kuroda -- Dodgers. Kuroda's been a bit overlooked on the national stage, as he truly is a strong pitcher. The Dodgers want -- need -- to contend, so they'll make sure Kuroda goes nowhere. They do need to slash salary, but a lot of that was tied up in Manny Ramirez, so there's plenty for Kuroda.

Lee LHSP: Cliff Lee -- Rangers. Buy into Texas being players for Lee and Lee eschewing the bright lights of New York just as long as the money is there. And it will be. The wife likes having him close to home, he's going to be on a contending team and get his money. There isn't much reason to move to New York.

LHSP: Jorge De La Rosa -- Tigers. Detroit has money to spend and a need in the rotation. De la Rosa will flirt with quite a few teams, Yankees included, but it's Detroit who will step up. It needs a strong pitcher in the rotation to have any hope of contending, and de la Rosa falls right into the bracket the Tigers are comfortable with.

Soriano RHRP: Rafael Soriano -- Angels . L.A. has said all the right things in moving forward with Fernando Rodney as a closer after moving Brian Fuentes, but the Angels bullpen was in tatters all season and Rodney is not good enough to block Soriano, who is one of the best closers in the game but will find a rough market.

RHRP: Joaquin Benoit -- Rays . Benoit's price tag is going to be high, but the Rays will be faced with a barren bullpen. Why not bring back someone they know can do it for them? They can entice Benoit with the possibility -- probability -- about taking over as closer.

LHRP: Scott Downs -- Red Sox. Downs is a Type-A free agent, but Boston will gladly fork over its second-rounder after Crawford gives Tampa Bay its first-rounder. The Red Sox want to beef up their bullpen after years of trolling through cast-offs. Downs has been coveted for a while, and Boston will take the plunge.

LHRP: Brian Fuentes -- Marlins. Florida wants to contend, but needs some help in the bullpen to do so. Knowing the Fish, they won't be looking to spend big at the position, but Fuentes is a nice, safe and affordable pick to be the new closer they want.

-- Evan Brunell

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Since: Mar 30, 2009
Posted on: November 8, 2010 1:09 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

Wow, look at all the yankee fans getting all upset, bc someone did not predict them to sign the best Free agents, your mentality is so hypocrtitical - we'll get lee b/c we'll offer him so much money, if not we'll just offer sooo much money to an OFer we dont need. But if somone complains about the yanks and belittles them as noyting but deep pockets you all get so upset??  And Yanks did not pull Montero from a  deal w/ Seattle, they believed they had the deal done and were extremely upset when Lee went to Texas.  Yanks know Montero can't catch at MLB level, Romine has regreesed, Real yankee C of the future is Gary Sanchez but he's just 17, so Buck actually makes sense. And Montero could be used in a deal for a SP if Lee goes elsewhere but too bad Greinke wants nothing to do w/ NY so Yanks and prob no other SP worth Montero, Yanks will have to deal w/ the guy the signed 2 years ago for 16.5 a year til 2013

Since: Aug 18, 2008
Posted on: November 8, 2010 9:51 am

Predicting where free agents will land

djpost -

You do look stupid. The yankees opted not to trade jesus montero because they liked his potential. That's why the cliff lee trade didnt go through - not because seattle didnt want him. Also, the papers in new york just 2 days ago mentioned how this guy will be competing for the starting position this coming spring training.

Since: Sep 24, 2006
Posted on: November 8, 2010 9:22 am

Predicting where free agents will land

i agree collins...and so let me get this straight  according to this write..yankees will sign john buck only..that will the only sighning for the yanks...ok this guy might be the dumbest man alive....lee will be a yank..this guys obv a redsoxs fan, since he also think crawford and downs are going to boston( no one has said crawford to soxs but this idiot)

Since: Nov 3, 2010
Posted on: November 8, 2010 3:16 am

Predicting where free agents will land

Also why would the Yankees waste their money on Werth or Crawford?  Offense wasn't their problem last year, it was pitching and their OF is fine with who is there now.  They need to spend their money on their rotation and bullpen, adding another bat is just wasteful spending of money.  To prove my point with dollars, for the 2011 season: Gardner-Approx. 500k, Granderson-8.2m and Swisher 9m.  Thats a 17.7m outfield which isn't too expensive, adding a Crawford or Werth adds and this is just a guess another 16-20m to your outfield when its not needed.  Their cheapest position player would be Granderson at 8.2m, thats insane to think your cheapest position player is at 8.2m.  They should and would be smart to only spend their money on pitching.  Just my opinion, and fyi i'm not a fan of the yankees but can be objective. 

Since: Nov 3, 2010
Posted on: November 8, 2010 2:53 am

Predicting where free agents will land

Only 5 teams have a shot at winning it all?  Thats way in the past 10 world series there have been 8 different winners.  Its not all about money like people think it is but i'm sure you know that huh....

Since: Sep 10, 2008
Posted on: November 8, 2010 1:14 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: Nov 6, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2010 6:59 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

With the prospects the Yankees have in their system, why in the world would they want John Buck? Also, LAA may go after Beltre, but he won't put up the numbers he did in Fenway.

Since: Dec 21, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2010 5:41 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

Evan did you think that Sabathia was going to LA and Texeira was going to Boston too?

Since: Sep 4, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2010 2:26 pm

Predicting where free agents will land. IS A JOKE

Its basically copy and paste piece's from every hometown newspaper or team website. The Reds will snatch a significant FA or do it thru trade. They all said last season they'd stay out do to cost. Wrong!! They make a substantial move in the market for a hitter and maybe more

Since: Dec 27, 2008
Posted on: November 7, 2010 1:44 pm

Predicting where free agents will land make Yankees fans like me look stupid. Jesus isn't even being groomed as the rpelacement for Jorge, that would be the man mentioned by name in the piece Austin Romine.  The fact that Jesus was the centerpiece in the failed trade for Cliff Lee gives you some indication of his future (or lack thereof) in pinstripes. He isn't pickin up how to handle a staff at all and his defesnive skill set is mediocre at best.  But his bat is filthy.  Filthy enough to bring back young pitching the team would rather have.

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