Blog Entry

Predicting where free agents will land

Posted on: November 3, 2010 11:25 am
Edited on: November 4, 2010 9:01 pm
Baseball is currently in a five-day period where teams have exclusivity to negotiate with players who have become free agents. Sunday at midnight, that period will expire and free up players to talk to any and all teams.

There's plenty to like about this free-agent crop, as the top players at each position is enough to put together a contending team. Plus, there are a good number of nice backup options, too.

Below, you can find Evan Brunell's predictions on where free agents will wind up, going position by position with two names at each position.

Martinez C: Victor Martinez -- Tigers. All the noise surrounding Detroit going hard after Martinez seems legit. It's part of Detroit's M.O., filling a position of desperate need to contend and Martinez is the best option and remains capable of catching. Plus, Detroit has no major block at first or DH for an eventual switch for V-Mart as Alex Avila apprentices.

C: John Buck -- Yankees. Jorge Posada will be receiving most of his at-bats as a DH and Francisco Cervelli certainly can't start. The Yankees will flex their financial muscles on a catcher which they can bring in on a short-term contract who broke out in Toronto last season. It solves the catcher conundrum short term and leaves the long term free for Austin Romine.

Dunn 1B: Adam Dunn -- Cubs. Another popular pairing that makes too much sense. The Cubs need to strike to stay in contention even as they try to get their minor-league system in order and producing over the next couple of seasons. Dunn's defense is minimized now that he's at first, and the Cubs need someone to sky them big flies. (And if the Cubs really are not going after big-name free agents , which I doubt is 100 percent true, I'll tab Dunn to the Athletics .)

1B: Aubrey Huff -- Giants. Unfortunately, while bringing in Huff eventually paid off big time for San Francisco, he is now overrated. With Brandon Belt tearing up the farm, there's no overwhelming reason to give Huff anything close to what he can get on the market. I have a feeling Brian Sabean will do what he always does, signing older players coming off big years to nonsensical contracts. You know it and I know it. Sleeper alert: The Giants move forward with a Mark DeRosa/Travis Ishikawa platoon at first, leaving Huff to land with the Mariners .

Hudson 2B: Orlando Hudson -- Padres. The O-Dog will be on the move again, looking for his fourth team in four seasons, fifth overall. He's long wanted to join the Mets, but Luis Castillo has prevented him from doing so. The Padres plan to contend, but still need the dollars to make sense for who they bring in, and it will for Hudson to plug a vacancy at second with no viable internal options.

2B: Bill Hall -- Twins. Hall is looking for a starting job, but there are those telling him he is best suited as a super utility player. Look for Minnesota to give him a chance at the starting 2B job, but the Twins will love moving him around once they can justify it.

Jeter SS: Derek Jeter -- Yankees. I think a lot of people are going to be a bit surprised by how long the negotiations take. Despite popular sentiment, Brian Cashman is not one to pay someone beyond actual value. What he does have is disposable income that the owners can order him to pay a premium, so Cashman will do just that -- but only at a small premium.

SS: Juan Uribe -- Giants. This is one return that makes sense. Edgar Renteria isn't being brought back, even if he doesn't retire. Pablo Sandoval's struggles at third and Uribe's ability to slide to third as need be will be coveted by San Francisco, and he deserves the deal he'll sign for. It's a very weak market for shortstops, so even those that could be available in a trade (Jason Bartlett?) may have too prohibitive a price.

Beltre 3B: Adrian Beltre -- Angels. Los Angeles makes the big strike here, importing a gifted defender who had a great season with the stick. He won't hit .321 again, but he'll be a signing on the level of Torii Hunter. He's expensive but will produce and help put L.A. back into postseason contention.

3B: Miguel Tejada -- Padres. San Diego was pleased with Tejada's production after acquiring him from Houston and will sign him to play his natural position of short even though he began the transition to third base last season.

Crawford LF: Carl Crawford -- Red Sox . Crawford will spark a bidding war between the Red Sox, Angels and some other team yet to be known, plus a late charge by the Yankees (you know it'll happen). In the end, the Red Sox will win out, offering just enough to entice Crawford to Boston.

LF: Marcus Thames -- Phillies. Thames built his value this past year, establishing himself as a strong platoon option against left-handers who surprisingly held his own against righties. The Phillies are interested in bringing in another right-handed hitter to pair with Ben Francisco, and Thames seems like the perfect low-cost, high-upside option.

Damon CF: Johnny Damon -- Astros. Damon may be a center fielder, but it's in name only as he's restricted to left and DH at this point of his career. No contending team is going to be interested in starting him, but he can still land somewhere where there's a faint glimmer of a chance at the postseason. Damon can be the grizzled, scrappy veteran who can lead them to the top. Welcome to Houston, Johnny!

CF: Melky Cabrera -- Royals. Cabrera's stock is down. Way, way down. He'll have to latch on with a bottom-feeding club who gambles on his tools. Kansas City seems like the perfect place to do that. With an up-and-coming farm, he could fit in seamlessly if he takes his job seriously. If he doesn't, the Royals simply move on.

Werth RF: Jayson Werth -- White Sox. It makes a lot of sense for the White Sox to go after Werth -- they have their own bandbox and need someone who can play the outfield and who could DH in his off days. Carlos Quentin's defense needs to be hidden or moved to first if they don't bring Paul Konerko back. Helping matters is Chicago has the money to make it happen.

RF: Andruw Jones -- Braves. Coming off a strong season for the White Sox where he proved he can still bring it, just not quite as a full-time outfielder (although that possibility does exist), Jones seems like he could make a return to Atlanta. The Braves have a need to remake their outfield, and Jones seems to be a perfect piece of the puzzle.

Thome DH: Jim Thome -- Twins. No reason for Thome to leave the Twins, really. He had a strong season there, became a cult hero, has been loyal to his teams and Minnesota definitely could use this slugger back provided the two can agree on how much playing time he will get. Having Delmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau doesn't leave much room for Thome, but it worked out just fine in 2010.

DH: Manny Ramirez -- Rays . Manny is a DH and probably will find the market a bit hostile towards him. He's not upper-echelon any longer, but not many teams need a DH. After long and overdrawn-out negotiations thanks to Scott Boras, ManRam will finally sign around the beginning of spring training and coast into town to help the Rays and what could be a moribund offense.

Pavano RHSP: Carl Pavano -- Brewers. Pavano is set to cash in on his success with the Twins and is certain to be in a position where he can outdo accepting arbitration thanks to a poor right-handed starter's market. Milwaukee needs to find starting pitching and fast, and the Brewers proved last year with Randy Wolf they weren't afraid to go get it. Wolf's struggles won't be enough to deter Milwaukee from Pavano, not when a Wolf-Pavano-Yovani Gallardo rotation would do wonders in the NL Central.

RHSP: Hiroki Kuroda -- Dodgers. Kuroda's been a bit overlooked on the national stage, as he truly is a strong pitcher. The Dodgers want -- need -- to contend, so they'll make sure Kuroda goes nowhere. They do need to slash salary, but a lot of that was tied up in Manny Ramirez, so there's plenty for Kuroda.

Lee LHSP: Cliff Lee -- Rangers. Buy into Texas being players for Lee and Lee eschewing the bright lights of New York just as long as the money is there. And it will be. The wife likes having him close to home, he's going to be on a contending team and get his money. There isn't much reason to move to New York.

LHSP: Jorge De La Rosa -- Tigers. Detroit has money to spend and a need in the rotation. De la Rosa will flirt with quite a few teams, Yankees included, but it's Detroit who will step up. It needs a strong pitcher in the rotation to have any hope of contending, and de la Rosa falls right into the bracket the Tigers are comfortable with.

Soriano RHRP: Rafael Soriano -- Angels . L.A. has said all the right things in moving forward with Fernando Rodney as a closer after moving Brian Fuentes, but the Angels bullpen was in tatters all season and Rodney is not good enough to block Soriano, who is one of the best closers in the game but will find a rough market.

RHRP: Joaquin Benoit -- Rays . Benoit's price tag is going to be high, but the Rays will be faced with a barren bullpen. Why not bring back someone they know can do it for them? They can entice Benoit with the possibility -- probability -- about taking over as closer.

LHRP: Scott Downs -- Red Sox. Downs is a Type-A free agent, but Boston will gladly fork over its second-rounder after Crawford gives Tampa Bay its first-rounder. The Red Sox want to beef up their bullpen after years of trolling through cast-offs. Downs has been coveted for a while, and Boston will take the plunge.

LHRP: Brian Fuentes -- Marlins. Florida wants to contend, but needs some help in the bullpen to do so. Knowing the Fish, they won't be looking to spend big at the position, but Fuentes is a nice, safe and affordable pick to be the new closer they want.

-- Evan Brunell

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Since: Jan 13, 2009
Posted on: November 7, 2010 1:11 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

This article should had several flaws. First off, it should have been restructured to have Adam Dunn on the RF target list so that it didn't mistakenly list Andruw Jones as the second best RF. And Paul Konerko should have been on the top 1b list. Andruw Jones should have been in the CF list along with either Cabrera or Damon. And VLAD should be on the DH list instead of Manny.
C V-Mart-Tigers. I agree, Venezuelan, like Cabrera, Magglio, and Guillen. Friends with Peralta. Will fit right in.C John Buck/Mike Napoli-Yankees is a decent call but think the Marlins could be players as well. I doubt he will be the only player they spend money on.
1b Konerko-White Sox. They will offer him a decent deal, so he can finish his career in Chicago. He will take a discount so they can go after Werth.1b Huff-Sabean will resign him. Might overpay.
2b Orland Hudson-I agree, Padres are a good fit. Watch out for the Rockies though if they don't trust Eric Young.2b Hall-who cares, prolly twins.
SS Derek Jeter-Yankees, though the Tigers might get in to raise the stakes and because Jeter's from MichiganSS Uribe-I agree, Gians.
3b Adrian Beltre-I switch the Angels with Boston here. Youkilis will stay at 1b and Beltre will continue to power the lineup with him at 3b.3b-Tejada-Agree again, not many suitors for him and he played well there.
LF-Crawford-Angels. Torii Hunter has recruited him hard and he fits the type of player the Angels ALWAYs go for. Boston has a full OF right now in addition to DH. Signing him isn't logical when they have a power hole to fill with Beltre and VMart possibly leaving. They could get his type of production from a healthy Ellsbury.LF-Thames-may not be the best LF out there but Phillies is a decent call. Doubt they can resign Werth.
CF-Damon-Astros. Again, a good surprising call. I agree. If he goes cheap enough, Yanks might grab him as a DH tho.CF-Andruw Jones-Rockies. They have some serious holes in the OF outside of Car-Go. Andruw can play multiple OF positions as well as 1b if Todd Helton gets hurt. Jones and the Braves ended terms on a sour note; I doubt he has any future in Atlanta.
RF- Werth-White Sox. Surprising to see them here, but I actually agree. Boston has a full OF right now, and a lot of Long-term OF prospects. Angels would have a full OF with Crawford. Tigers need a defensive LF like Crawford more than a RF. White Sox have more money than the Phillies to spend.RF- Adam Dunn-Even though he will play 1b, I agree he will go to the Cubs. Hendry will again overpay for another slugger who will hit homers but for a low average.
DH-Thome Will Stay with the TwinsDH-Tough Call, I could see the Rangers resigning him if they fail to resign Lee, but the Rays could get involved. Athletics might try and sign him as well.
Pitchers are all right guesses in my opinion except De La Rosa. Tigers have PLENTY of pitchers in the minors. They have learned from their mistakes and will not be spending extensive money on pitching this offseason. Yankees will get Lee or De La Rosa, or both. No way the end the offseason without a LH pitcher to replace Pettite long-term and fill a spot next year.

Since: Feb 15, 2010
Posted on: November 7, 2010 12:30 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

This article is crap

Since: Oct 9, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2010 12:26 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

Your prediction of John Buck to Yankees is way off, the Yankees will rely on Jesus, and I am not talking about our lord and savior, I am talking about Jesus Montero

Since: Apr 14, 2009
Posted on: November 7, 2010 11:45 am

Predicting where free agents will land

CLiff Lee did not win in texas-- he comes to the yankees.. he has buddies on this team.. so Evan,, be prepared to eat those words

Since: Dec 16, 2009
Posted on: November 7, 2010 10:51 am

Predicting where free agents will land

With the money they have to spend, expect to see, at least one more guy on the list to wind up in Detroit. I know there were rumors about either Crawford or Werth to add another bat in the outfield.

Since: Feb 20, 2008
Posted on: November 7, 2010 10:32 am

Predicting where free agents will land

Sorry, Geoff, I guess I didn't realize this wasn't the place for in-depth discussion.  I was just surprised to see an analyst seemingly going in-depth, but then writing things about guys that don't match their skill-sets.  I wasn't trying to analyze his guesses.  If he predicted someone will sign Cliff Lee as their closer, you would be shocked at his lack of knowledge about Lee.  It's a similar no-brainer that Hall, for example, won't be a starting 2B anywhere if you followed his career or actually saw him play.  Sorry if it came across as cherry picking.  Just trying to keep discussion going.

Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: November 7, 2010 8:43 am

Predicting where free agents will land

he did go back to baltimore first dip stick !

Since: Feb 23, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2010 7:46 am

Predicting where free agents will land

Newsflash: Tejada wasn't traded from Houston,He was traded from Baltimore, Try knowing the facts before you post!

Since: Jan 10, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2010 2:47 am

Predicting where free agents will land

Assuming Cliff Lee isn't the kind of guy who cheats on his wife, I think it's very plausible that he stays close to home in Texas.  I'm sure he has a hot wife, and he'd be able to get his dick laid more often.  That's a huge BONE-us!

Since: Sep 1, 2006
Posted on: November 6, 2010 11:51 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

So the guy predicted where 20-odd free agents were going to land (and why!) and your expert analysis is he got Bill Hall and Melky Cabrera wrong?  Really?  Melky Cabrera and Bill Hall?  Who care where they play, or for how much.  They were on the list so he placed them.  I haven't seen a lot of projections that Cliff Lee wasn't Gotham bound.  The guy took a lot of positions.  I respect him for that.  I don't respect some cherry picker who gets all in hs face over Bill Hall and Melky Cabrera.

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