Blog Entry

Predicting where free agents will land

Posted on: November 3, 2010 11:25 am
Edited on: November 4, 2010 9:01 pm
 
Baseball is currently in a five-day period where teams have exclusivity to negotiate with players who have become free agents. Sunday at midnight, that period will expire and free up players to talk to any and all teams.

There's plenty to like about this free-agent crop, as the top players at each position is enough to put together a contending team. Plus, there are a good number of nice backup options, too.

Below, you can find Evan Brunell's predictions on where free agents will wind up, going position by position with two names at each position.

Martinez C: Victor Martinez -- Tigers. All the noise surrounding Detroit going hard after Martinez seems legit. It's part of Detroit's M.O., filling a position of desperate need to contend and Martinez is the best option and remains capable of catching. Plus, Detroit has no major block at first or DH for an eventual switch for V-Mart as Alex Avila apprentices.

C: John Buck -- Yankees. Jorge Posada will be receiving most of his at-bats as a DH and Francisco Cervelli certainly can't start. The Yankees will flex their financial muscles on a catcher which they can bring in on a short-term contract who broke out in Toronto last season. It solves the catcher conundrum short term and leaves the long term free for Austin Romine.

Dunn 1B: Adam Dunn -- Cubs. Another popular pairing that makes too much sense. The Cubs need to strike to stay in contention even as they try to get their minor-league system in order and producing over the next couple of seasons. Dunn's defense is minimized now that he's at first, and the Cubs need someone to sky them big flies. (And if the Cubs really are not going after big-name free agents , which I doubt is 100 percent true, I'll tab Dunn to the Athletics .)

1B: Aubrey Huff -- Giants. Unfortunately, while bringing in Huff eventually paid off big time for San Francisco, he is now overrated. With Brandon Belt tearing up the farm, there's no overwhelming reason to give Huff anything close to what he can get on the market. I have a feeling Brian Sabean will do what he always does, signing older players coming off big years to nonsensical contracts. You know it and I know it. Sleeper alert: The Giants move forward with a Mark DeRosa/Travis Ishikawa platoon at first, leaving Huff to land with the Mariners .

Hudson 2B: Orlando Hudson -- Padres. The O-Dog will be on the move again, looking for his fourth team in four seasons, fifth overall. He's long wanted to join the Mets, but Luis Castillo has prevented him from doing so. The Padres plan to contend, but still need the dollars to make sense for who they bring in, and it will for Hudson to plug a vacancy at second with no viable internal options.

2B: Bill Hall -- Twins. Hall is looking for a starting job, but there are those telling him he is best suited as a super utility player. Look for Minnesota to give him a chance at the starting 2B job, but the Twins will love moving him around once they can justify it.

Jeter SS: Derek Jeter -- Yankees. I think a lot of people are going to be a bit surprised by how long the negotiations take. Despite popular sentiment, Brian Cashman is not one to pay someone beyond actual value. What he does have is disposable income that the owners can order him to pay a premium, so Cashman will do just that -- but only at a small premium.

SS: Juan Uribe -- Giants. This is one return that makes sense. Edgar Renteria isn't being brought back, even if he doesn't retire. Pablo Sandoval's struggles at third and Uribe's ability to slide to third as need be will be coveted by San Francisco, and he deserves the deal he'll sign for. It's a very weak market for shortstops, so even those that could be available in a trade (Jason Bartlett?) may have too prohibitive a price.

Beltre 3B: Adrian Beltre -- Angels. Los Angeles makes the big strike here, importing a gifted defender who had a great season with the stick. He won't hit .321 again, but he'll be a signing on the level of Torii Hunter. He's expensive but will produce and help put L.A. back into postseason contention.

3B: Miguel Tejada -- Padres. San Diego was pleased with Tejada's production after acquiring him from Houston and will sign him to play his natural position of short even though he began the transition to third base last season.

Crawford LF: Carl Crawford -- Red Sox . Crawford will spark a bidding war between the Red Sox, Angels and some other team yet to be known, plus a late charge by the Yankees (you know it'll happen). In the end, the Red Sox will win out, offering just enough to entice Crawford to Boston.

LF: Marcus Thames -- Phillies. Thames built his value this past year, establishing himself as a strong platoon option against left-handers who surprisingly held his own against righties. The Phillies are interested in bringing in another right-handed hitter to pair with Ben Francisco, and Thames seems like the perfect low-cost, high-upside option.

Damon CF: Johnny Damon -- Astros. Damon may be a center fielder, but it's in name only as he's restricted to left and DH at this point of his career. No contending team is going to be interested in starting him, but he can still land somewhere where there's a faint glimmer of a chance at the postseason. Damon can be the grizzled, scrappy veteran who can lead them to the top. Welcome to Houston, Johnny!

CF: Melky Cabrera -- Royals. Cabrera's stock is down. Way, way down. He'll have to latch on with a bottom-feeding club who gambles on his tools. Kansas City seems like the perfect place to do that. With an up-and-coming farm, he could fit in seamlessly if he takes his job seriously. If he doesn't, the Royals simply move on.

Werth RF: Jayson Werth -- White Sox. It makes a lot of sense for the White Sox to go after Werth -- they have their own bandbox and need someone who can play the outfield and who could DH in his off days. Carlos Quentin's defense needs to be hidden or moved to first if they don't bring Paul Konerko back. Helping matters is Chicago has the money to make it happen.

RF: Andruw Jones -- Braves. Coming off a strong season for the White Sox where he proved he can still bring it, just not quite as a full-time outfielder (although that possibility does exist), Jones seems like he could make a return to Atlanta. The Braves have a need to remake their outfield, and Jones seems to be a perfect piece of the puzzle.

Thome DH: Jim Thome -- Twins. No reason for Thome to leave the Twins, really. He had a strong season there, became a cult hero, has been loyal to his teams and Minnesota definitely could use this slugger back provided the two can agree on how much playing time he will get. Having Delmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau doesn't leave much room for Thome, but it worked out just fine in 2010.

DH: Manny Ramirez -- Rays . Manny is a DH and probably will find the market a bit hostile towards him. He's not upper-echelon any longer, but not many teams need a DH. After long and overdrawn-out negotiations thanks to Scott Boras, ManRam will finally sign around the beginning of spring training and coast into town to help the Rays and what could be a moribund offense.

Pavano RHSP: Carl Pavano -- Brewers. Pavano is set to cash in on his success with the Twins and is certain to be in a position where he can outdo accepting arbitration thanks to a poor right-handed starter's market. Milwaukee needs to find starting pitching and fast, and the Brewers proved last year with Randy Wolf they weren't afraid to go get it. Wolf's struggles won't be enough to deter Milwaukee from Pavano, not when a Wolf-Pavano-Yovani Gallardo rotation would do wonders in the NL Central.

RHSP: Hiroki Kuroda -- Dodgers. Kuroda's been a bit overlooked on the national stage, as he truly is a strong pitcher. The Dodgers want -- need -- to contend, so they'll make sure Kuroda goes nowhere. They do need to slash salary, but a lot of that was tied up in Manny Ramirez, so there's plenty for Kuroda.

Lee LHSP: Cliff Lee -- Rangers. Buy into Texas being players for Lee and Lee eschewing the bright lights of New York just as long as the money is there. And it will be. The wife likes having him close to home, he's going to be on a contending team and get his money. There isn't much reason to move to New York.

LHSP: Jorge De La Rosa -- Tigers. Detroit has money to spend and a need in the rotation. De la Rosa will flirt with quite a few teams, Yankees included, but it's Detroit who will step up. It needs a strong pitcher in the rotation to have any hope of contending, and de la Rosa falls right into the bracket the Tigers are comfortable with.

Soriano RHRP: Rafael Soriano -- Angels . L.A. has said all the right things in moving forward with Fernando Rodney as a closer after moving Brian Fuentes, but the Angels bullpen was in tatters all season and Rodney is not good enough to block Soriano, who is one of the best closers in the game but will find a rough market.

RHRP: Joaquin Benoit -- Rays . Benoit's price tag is going to be high, but the Rays will be faced with a barren bullpen. Why not bring back someone they know can do it for them? They can entice Benoit with the possibility -- probability -- about taking over as closer.

LHRP: Scott Downs -- Red Sox. Downs is a Type-A free agent, but Boston will gladly fork over its second-rounder after Crawford gives Tampa Bay its first-rounder. The Red Sox want to beef up their bullpen after years of trolling through cast-offs. Downs has been coveted for a while, and Boston will take the plunge.

LHRP: Brian Fuentes -- Marlins. Florida wants to contend, but needs some help in the bullpen to do so. Knowing the Fish, they won't be looking to spend big at the position, but Fuentes is a nice, safe and affordable pick to be the new closer they want.

-- Evan Brunell

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Comments

Since: Jun 10, 2010
Posted on: November 6, 2010 12:46 am
 

Predicting where free agents will land

I love this. I think you missed the mark in a few places but it looks ok.  Pavano to the brew crew Minnesota will try to re sign if they can and I see them getting him back not many want to leave here.  Also the twins have some money now and can make a splash with some guys.  I highly doubt Bill hall will wear a twins uni the last thing we need is another Punto (no thanks) the teams needs more flash than old timer utility.  As far as v mart not having a block at 1st base in Detroit you must have smoked something really good Miguel is one of the best players in the league and the Tigers will make sure he does not go anywhere for a long time.  I also agree why did you not bring up mr PK he had a great year and should get a decent 2 or 3 year deal to play 1st for a good tema and the soxs can still use him.  Also why bring up a guy who has lost it in jones who cares really.  I think that there will be more movement than we all think and what about LEE the biggest free agent out there is he a Yankee yet ( not going to happen) I see him as a Ranger he hs something to prove now.  I cant wait till Febuary when Pitchers and Catchers report.  God I love this game



Since: Apr 2, 2009
Posted on: November 6, 2010 12:32 am
 

Predicting where free agents will land

Why would the Cubs get Adam Dunn. They strikeout enough as it is and they already have a cleanup hitter in ARam. They need to replace Soriano in LF, find a more all around 1b, and find some better bullpen help.



Since: May 17, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 7:26 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

VMART
No major block at first base? In Detroit, there's a fella named Miguel Cabrera...you may have heard of him.  I'd say that's a pretty major block..He's young, and he's locked up for quite a few more years....Martinez would be a nice pick up to dh, backup catch, and back up first base....but the real peach for the Tigers would be Crawford. 



Since: Oct 3, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 5:46 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

Plus, Detroit has no major block at first or DH for an eventual switch for V-Mart as apprentices .....
While I agree there's no roadblock at DH, 1B may be a little clogged with some guy named Miguel Cabrera.



Since: Jan 29, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 5:33 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land




Since: Dec 12, 2007
Posted on: November 5, 2010 4:52 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

Vonerik, I noticed that too, but I'm an O's fan so I would notice that.  The author must have it in for the O's, notice he said the Padres were happy with Tejada after they acquired him from Houston.  Umm, they acquired him from Baltimore you putz.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but don't count out the O's.  Their record the last 15 years will always be a tough obstacle to overcome when landing FA's but Buck is making some waves, they have a core of young talent (arms and position players), and in case you haven't noticed, they have deep pockets.



Since: Oct 21, 2009
Posted on: November 5, 2010 3:37 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

Again HILARIOUS !!!! Another sports writer says Crawford is going to Boston?? And it's Buster Olney? ANOTHER RED SOX FAN !!!!!
Two years ago Evan and Buster thought Texeira was going to Boston and how did that turn out? If the Yankees can't get Lee Laughing, then they WILL get Crawford Laughing......oh and Cashman and Girardi love Crawford too Laughing



Since: Apr 13, 2009
Posted on: November 5, 2010 2:47 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

Carl Crawford is expected to come to Boston Laughing not only by cbssports, but also by espn's well known reporter, buster olney. Also Theo Epstien and Terry Francona love Crawford. If Beltre and VMart don't return to the BoSox, they will try even harder to land Crawford




Since: Apr 13, 2009
Posted on: November 5, 2010 2:43 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

I predict that no team will sign Manny and he ends up not playing. He can't field anymore, he struggles hitting since he was "caught", he wants a LOT of money I would guess and he is a problem in the clubhouse for any team that would sign him. Why would anyone really want him at his age and price?




Since: May 18, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 1:39 pm
 

Predicting where free agents will land

I don't know why you would not have Konerko in this piece. Is Thames really a big factor in team's FA plans? Are any teams thinking what are we going to have to do to get Marcus Thames and we have to do it right away? I think there are teams that are saying that about Konerko.


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