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Blog Entry

Predicting where free agents will land

Posted on: November 3, 2010 11:25 am
Edited on: November 4, 2010 9:01 pm
Baseball is currently in a five-day period where teams have exclusivity to negotiate with players who have become free agents. Sunday at midnight, that period will expire and free up players to talk to any and all teams.

There's plenty to like about this free-agent crop, as the top players at each position is enough to put together a contending team. Plus, there are a good number of nice backup options, too.

Below, you can find Evan Brunell's predictions on where free agents will wind up, going position by position with two names at each position.

Martinez C: Victor Martinez -- Tigers. All the noise surrounding Detroit going hard after Martinez seems legit. It's part of Detroit's M.O., filling a position of desperate need to contend and Martinez is the best option and remains capable of catching. Plus, Detroit has no major block at first or DH for an eventual switch for V-Mart as Alex Avila apprentices.

C: John Buck -- Yankees. Jorge Posada will be receiving most of his at-bats as a DH and Francisco Cervelli certainly can't start. The Yankees will flex their financial muscles on a catcher which they can bring in on a short-term contract who broke out in Toronto last season. It solves the catcher conundrum short term and leaves the long term free for Austin Romine.

Dunn 1B: Adam Dunn -- Cubs. Another popular pairing that makes too much sense. The Cubs need to strike to stay in contention even as they try to get their minor-league system in order and producing over the next couple of seasons. Dunn's defense is minimized now that he's at first, and the Cubs need someone to sky them big flies. (And if the Cubs really are not going after big-name free agents , which I doubt is 100 percent true, I'll tab Dunn to the Athletics .)

1B: Aubrey Huff -- Giants. Unfortunately, while bringing in Huff eventually paid off big time for San Francisco, he is now overrated. With Brandon Belt tearing up the farm, there's no overwhelming reason to give Huff anything close to what he can get on the market. I have a feeling Brian Sabean will do what he always does, signing older players coming off big years to nonsensical contracts. You know it and I know it. Sleeper alert: The Giants move forward with a Mark DeRosa/Travis Ishikawa platoon at first, leaving Huff to land with the Mariners .

Hudson 2B: Orlando Hudson -- Padres. The O-Dog will be on the move again, looking for his fourth team in four seasons, fifth overall. He's long wanted to join the Mets, but Luis Castillo has prevented him from doing so. The Padres plan to contend, but still need the dollars to make sense for who they bring in, and it will for Hudson to plug a vacancy at second with no viable internal options.

2B: Bill Hall -- Twins. Hall is looking for a starting job, but there are those telling him he is best suited as a super utility player. Look for Minnesota to give him a chance at the starting 2B job, but the Twins will love moving him around once they can justify it.

Jeter SS: Derek Jeter -- Yankees. I think a lot of people are going to be a bit surprised by how long the negotiations take. Despite popular sentiment, Brian Cashman is not one to pay someone beyond actual value. What he does have is disposable income that the owners can order him to pay a premium, so Cashman will do just that -- but only at a small premium.

SS: Juan Uribe -- Giants. This is one return that makes sense. Edgar Renteria isn't being brought back, even if he doesn't retire. Pablo Sandoval's struggles at third and Uribe's ability to slide to third as need be will be coveted by San Francisco, and he deserves the deal he'll sign for. It's a very weak market for shortstops, so even those that could be available in a trade (Jason Bartlett?) may have too prohibitive a price.

Beltre 3B: Adrian Beltre -- Angels. Los Angeles makes the big strike here, importing a gifted defender who had a great season with the stick. He won't hit .321 again, but he'll be a signing on the level of Torii Hunter. He's expensive but will produce and help put L.A. back into postseason contention.

3B: Miguel Tejada -- Padres. San Diego was pleased with Tejada's production after acquiring him from Houston and will sign him to play his natural position of short even though he began the transition to third base last season.

Crawford LF: Carl Crawford -- Red Sox . Crawford will spark a bidding war between the Red Sox, Angels and some other team yet to be known, plus a late charge by the Yankees (you know it'll happen). In the end, the Red Sox will win out, offering just enough to entice Crawford to Boston.

LF: Marcus Thames -- Phillies. Thames built his value this past year, establishing himself as a strong platoon option against left-handers who surprisingly held his own against righties. The Phillies are interested in bringing in another right-handed hitter to pair with Ben Francisco, and Thames seems like the perfect low-cost, high-upside option.

Damon CF: Johnny Damon -- Astros. Damon may be a center fielder, but it's in name only as he's restricted to left and DH at this point of his career. No contending team is going to be interested in starting him, but he can still land somewhere where there's a faint glimmer of a chance at the postseason. Damon can be the grizzled, scrappy veteran who can lead them to the top. Welcome to Houston, Johnny!

CF: Melky Cabrera -- Royals. Cabrera's stock is down. Way, way down. He'll have to latch on with a bottom-feeding club who gambles on his tools. Kansas City seems like the perfect place to do that. With an up-and-coming farm, he could fit in seamlessly if he takes his job seriously. If he doesn't, the Royals simply move on.

Werth RF: Jayson Werth -- White Sox. It makes a lot of sense for the White Sox to go after Werth -- they have their own bandbox and need someone who can play the outfield and who could DH in his off days. Carlos Quentin's defense needs to be hidden or moved to first if they don't bring Paul Konerko back. Helping matters is Chicago has the money to make it happen.

RF: Andruw Jones -- Braves. Coming off a strong season for the White Sox where he proved he can still bring it, just not quite as a full-time outfielder (although that possibility does exist), Jones seems like he could make a return to Atlanta. The Braves have a need to remake their outfield, and Jones seems to be a perfect piece of the puzzle.

Thome DH: Jim Thome -- Twins. No reason for Thome to leave the Twins, really. He had a strong season there, became a cult hero, has been loyal to his teams and Minnesota definitely could use this slugger back provided the two can agree on how much playing time he will get. Having Delmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Justin Morneau doesn't leave much room for Thome, but it worked out just fine in 2010.

DH: Manny Ramirez -- Rays . Manny is a DH and probably will find the market a bit hostile towards him. He's not upper-echelon any longer, but not many teams need a DH. After long and overdrawn-out negotiations thanks to Scott Boras, ManRam will finally sign around the beginning of spring training and coast into town to help the Rays and what could be a moribund offense.

Pavano RHSP: Carl Pavano -- Brewers. Pavano is set to cash in on his success with the Twins and is certain to be in a position where he can outdo accepting arbitration thanks to a poor right-handed starter's market. Milwaukee needs to find starting pitching and fast, and the Brewers proved last year with Randy Wolf they weren't afraid to go get it. Wolf's struggles won't be enough to deter Milwaukee from Pavano, not when a Wolf-Pavano-Yovani Gallardo rotation would do wonders in the NL Central.

RHSP: Hiroki Kuroda -- Dodgers. Kuroda's been a bit overlooked on the national stage, as he truly is a strong pitcher. The Dodgers want -- need -- to contend, so they'll make sure Kuroda goes nowhere. They do need to slash salary, but a lot of that was tied up in Manny Ramirez, so there's plenty for Kuroda.

Lee LHSP: Cliff Lee -- Rangers. Buy into Texas being players for Lee and Lee eschewing the bright lights of New York just as long as the money is there. And it will be. The wife likes having him close to home, he's going to be on a contending team and get his money. There isn't much reason to move to New York.

LHSP: Jorge De La Rosa -- Tigers. Detroit has money to spend and a need in the rotation. De la Rosa will flirt with quite a few teams, Yankees included, but it's Detroit who will step up. It needs a strong pitcher in the rotation to have any hope of contending, and de la Rosa falls right into the bracket the Tigers are comfortable with.

Soriano RHRP: Rafael Soriano -- Angels . L.A. has said all the right things in moving forward with Fernando Rodney as a closer after moving Brian Fuentes, but the Angels bullpen was in tatters all season and Rodney is not good enough to block Soriano, who is one of the best closers in the game but will find a rough market.

RHRP: Joaquin Benoit -- Rays . Benoit's price tag is going to be high, but the Rays will be faced with a barren bullpen. Why not bring back someone they know can do it for them? They can entice Benoit with the possibility -- probability -- about taking over as closer.

LHRP: Scott Downs -- Red Sox. Downs is a Type-A free agent, but Boston will gladly fork over its second-rounder after Crawford gives Tampa Bay its first-rounder. The Red Sox want to beef up their bullpen after years of trolling through cast-offs. Downs has been coveted for a while, and Boston will take the plunge.

LHRP: Brian Fuentes -- Marlins. Florida wants to contend, but needs some help in the bullpen to do so. Knowing the Fish, they won't be looking to spend big at the position, but Fuentes is a nice, safe and affordable pick to be the new closer they want.

-- Evan Brunell

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Since: Apr 7, 2010
Posted on: November 5, 2010 1:25 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

With the exception of Jeter (a given to anyone, even to those not familiar with baseball) and maybe Kuroda I'd be surprised if any of these turn out to be correct.  But these guys get paid to write, so write they will.  That said, should be an interesting offseason.

Since: Sep 5, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 1:06 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

The Rays are cutting payroll, theonly way Mannywould gets there is if it's at rock bottom price and he's begging.  Derek will retire before he goes to another team, and that ain't happening until he hits # 3000.  The Braves should stay as far away as possible from Jones - his last three years have been a joke.  Lee will stay in Texas and if Dunn goes to the cubs it's for money and not for the Ring hunt cause decent players DIE there.

Since: Jan 23, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 12:27 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

there's more free agents not mentioned.  many more.

Plus this article is retarded.  The rays already said publicly they're cutting payroll, crawford and company are gone.  There's no way the Rays are going to pay the salaries Manram and Benoit will command.

I can't stand speculative articles that make no sense.

Just stick to the facts and tell us you knew you were right after they're all signed.

Since: Apr 30, 2007
Posted on: November 5, 2010 11:18 am

Predicting where free agents will land

I seriously hope you're wrong. Adding Carl Pavano to a deflated, less than mediocre pitching staff will not make the Brewers contenders. You can put a different coat of paint on a broken down Buick, and although it looks different than before, it will still be a broken down Buick that gets blown away by Corvettes and Mustangs. A complete overhaul is required or at least add a few difference makers. So depressing. I can see this happening. Looks like another lost season for my Brewers.

Since: Jun 24, 2010
Posted on: November 5, 2010 11:07 am

Predicting where free agents will land

Soooo where's Paul Konerko on this list?

Since: Mar 22, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 10:54 am

Predicting where free agents will land

According to this article, the only player the Yankees will add is John Buck (Derek Jeter doesn't count, we all know he's going nowhere).  Is there anyone on the planet who actually believes that?  Even if the Yankees don't get Cliff Lee any baseball fan who pays attention knows they will mae a big splash somewhere else in free agency.  The last time a payer of John Buck's caliber was the Yankees "big offseason acquisition" was decades ago, before Steinbrenner bought the team.

Since: Dec 7, 2009
Posted on: November 5, 2010 10:20 am

Predicting where free agents will land

would be nice to see v-mart put the hurt on someone for the tigers, not against them. pavano out of the al central would be nice to, he sux against anyone except the tigers. de la rosa is a nice addition. i hope they will go after a plus outfield bat, like werth. if all that happens i could be a great year in motown

Since: Apr 7, 2008
Posted on: November 5, 2010 12:36 am

Predicting where free agents will land

I know I am going to be the minority here but with how they played the last two months of the season why aren't the Orioles are not listed as the final destination for ANY of the free agents.  I know it's easy to beat a hurt dog while it's on the ground but don't count them out completely already for next year.  Buck is a solid manager and I know he isn't on the field but he is a great tactician and commands the best out of his players.  I don't expect them to be Series contenders next year but with a solid core of pitchers and position players they are making progress to make that push and at least be mentioned in the conversation.  Imagine the vision of the lineup if they sign for Martinez(I know he wants to catch still but he could allow Wieters a day off and could get some reps at first), Dunn(just think of the dents on the warehouse wall) or maybe make a trade for Gonzalez or Fielder.  I live in reality so I know it is a possibility that none of those could come true but I do think that maybe one is not that far fetched.  The O's have made strides and they finally have a manager who expects accountability.

Since: May 20, 2009
Posted on: November 5, 2010 12:13 am

Adam Dunn wouldn't fit on the Yankees?

Come on now!  Isn't he tired of 39-40 homers a season?  Remember when the Yankees were talked about getting him mid-season and everyone was saying it's just not fair?  The last time the Yankees don't win the pennant they go and get Teixeira and Sabathia.  Cliff Lee and Adam Dunn? One thing's for sure though - there won't be a Pavano sighting!  If they don't sign Cliff Lee, expect a trade for a solid starting pitcher, which probably means Montero goes.  Which means Adam Dunn arrives!

Since: Dec 1, 2006
Posted on: November 4, 2010 11:53 pm

Predicting where free agents will land

I saw that too. I stopped reading after the first block at 1B??? I guess he thinks Cabrera is dog food. Get a life, dude.

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