Blog Entry

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Posted on: November 22, 2010 3:10 pm
Edited on: November 22, 2010 5:06 pm
 
Hot Stove League Through Nov. 26, CBS Sports' MLB Facts and Rumors will be profiling both free agents and trade candidates who will help stoke the fires of the Hot Stove League. Today: trade candidate .

The Royals are entertaining the thought of trading ace pitcher Zack Greinke, who won the 2009 AL Cy Young award with a sterling 2.16 ERA in 229 1/3 innings, punching out a staggering 242 batters and walking 51, allowing just 11 home runs.

Greinke may have served as a trailblazer of sorts for Felix Hernandez to win the Cy for this past season with a 13-12 record thanks to Greinke's own 16-8 mark -- while more impressive than Hernandez', even that mark sparked debate among voters.

However, Greinke is disillusioned about the constant losing in Kansas City. Despite a ton of young prospects who could be ready to make a major impact and push the team toward contention in 2013, Greinke's own deal only runs through 2012 and all indications are that he has had enough of the losing and may look to depart the team as a free agent. In fact, some have gone as far to say that Greinke was disillusioned and disinterested at times during this past season, a part of why he finished with a 4.17 ERA in 33 starts, with a tumble in his strikeout rate.

While Greinke is unlikely to go to New York or Boston or any other rabid big-market team due to his own personal preferences and to help manage his social anxiety disorder, he should be in plenty of demand as a free agent and will be able to cash in. That's made the Royals evaluate whether or not to move Greinke. Moving him now would give the acquiring team two years of his services, which in turn would make the acquiring team far more comfortable in giving up copious amounts of talent like Kansas City would demand.

STATS

2010: 10-14, 33 GS, 220 IP, 4.17 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 55 BB, 181 K

Career: 60-67, 210 G, 169 GS, 1,108 IP, 3.82 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 280 BB, 931 K

WHAT IT WILL TAKE

Dayton Moore wants high-quality (obviously) players for Greinke and seeks a pitcher with similar upside to Greinke. Greinke is going to command a two- to three-player package, and Moore is going to look for the kind of return that the Braves coughed up to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira.

Greinke That return was shortstop Elvis Andrus, who finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2009 and then made the All-Star team in 2010 along with Nefali Feliz, who notched 40 saves in his first season as closer. The club also surrendered Matt Harrison, who has been valuable as a depth starter, but whose future is in the back of a NL rotation. Jarrod Salatalamacchia -- the headliner of the trade -- was later sent to the Red Sox from Texas and has a chance to start for Boston in 2011. Lastly, Beau Jones, a prospect, was in the deal. Jones, 24, completed a bullpen campaign at Double-A and still has a chance to emerge as a middle reliever.

Bottom line: that trade worked out wonderfully for Texas, and it also scared many teams off meeting that type of asking price down the road. It's unlikely Moore can get as good a package that Texas got, but K.C. will still get strong offers.

WHERE HE COULD GO

While it would be difficult for the Rays to justify going after Greinke only to have to extend him in two seasons, the Rays' deep farm system does stack up. There's near-zero chance Tampa would cough up top prospect Jeremy Hellickson, especially with the risk of Greinke departing as a free agent.

But second-best prospect Matt Moore would cause the Rays to salivate. But who to pair him with? Tampa can't deal outfielder Desmond Jennings and would likely blanch at the inclusion of a second pitcher like Jake McGee unless the player was farther off (of which they do have). The final piece could include a catcher in Drew Vettleson, as it's unlikely Wil Myers sticks behind the dish.

Other teams with high-end pitching prospects include the Red Sox, who could dangle Casey Kelly along with outfielder Ryan Kalish if Greinke agreed to give Boston a try. It would be interesting to see Toronto try to pluck Greinke with Kyle Drabek as the front piece.

The Royals may not want to deal within the division, but if the Tigers dangled Jacob Turner, it may be too much to pass up. The Rangers, who could make a big push if and when Cliff Lee signs with the Yankees, have a bevy of prospects to offer up including Martin Perez. If the Braves felt like giving the trade route another go, Julio Teheran could be dangled.

There are plenty of teams with top pitching prospects. The issue is two-fold: Will those teams sacrifice the chance of a cost-controllable ace for years for someone like Greinke? And second are the secondary pieces. Some teams with top-end pitching prospects may not have enough to measure up, or could blanch at tacking on even more.

PREDICTION

Greinke goes nowhere, but a rough start to the season and increased disillusionment from Greinke will make him a hot and heavy trade target at the trade deadline. And that's when he'll be traded.

OTHER PROFILES
Jason Bartlett | Adrian Beltre | Carl Crawford | Adam Dunn | Prince FielderCliff Lee | Victor Martinez | Dan Uggla (TRADED) | Justin Upton | Jayson Werth

-- Evan Brunell

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Category: MLB
Comments
SailorRipley
Since: Jul 9, 2007
Posted on: December 2, 2010 6:46 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Aug 7, 2008
Posted on: November 28, 2010 7:01 pm
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Newsflash! Zack Greinke was never that good to begin with! Sure he had one brilliant season, but if he cannot shine while playing for an awful team like many Cy Young winners have done then what good is he anyway on a winning team? Aside from his inconsistent stats and his lack of desire and dedication to the game and his team, the dude is fragile. He looks like a teenager, but he doesn't have the oomph, the pizzazz or mental toughness of Tim Lincecum or Tim Hudson. The Royals would be better served trading him when his stock is still relatively high. Perhaps the inept Cubs will take him. It seems that Jim Hendry is always willing to take on a suspect superstar. I wonder if Hendry regrets signing Alfonso Soriano. You bet he does!



Since: Oct 17, 2007
Posted on: November 28, 2010 9:53 am
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Let's see how many times we can say "blanch" in an article.  Just remember, guys, his prediction is simply a prediction, nothing more.  It means nothing.  So what if he thinks Greinke doesn't get moved until the trade deadline?  Big deal.  His opinion means absolutely nothing.

Cubs fan...what a dolt.  Are you serious with that weak-ace offer?  You're so dumb, I'm not going to point out the many mistakes in what you think is a proposal.  Greinke and Butler?  You're just clueless, and that's putting it nicely. 



Since: Oct 31, 2010
Posted on: November 27, 2010 5:46 pm
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Look for Greinke to join the Detroit Tigers in the off-season.




Since: Sep 5, 2008
Posted on: November 27, 2010 4:34 pm
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Sorry, but didn't he sign a multi year big bucks contrct after winning the Cy?  So he is disillusioned about playing for the Royals now.  Hello Zack, where have you been, what record book were you looking at when you signed that contract?  The last time they had a winning season was back when Brett played for them.  These guys want the big bucks, get he signing bonuses, then wake up to reality and say ...... no I don't want to play for you anymore......oh and by the way I want to keep all the money too!



Since: Nov 27, 2010
Posted on: November 27, 2010 12:17 pm
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Here is the trade - Big Z, Fukudome, Soriano for Greinke & Butler. 

Zambrano Fukudome and Soriano: 52 M$
Greinke and Butler: 8 M$

Come on man, be serious. The Royals would not even make the trade if the Cubs paid every salary.

What would you say if a Mets fan wrote Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran for Greinke and Butler?



Since: Sep 3, 2006
Posted on: November 26, 2010 7:17 pm
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Hello you are talking about KANSAS CITY. They will not take salary back smarten up or please be quiet.



Since: Jan 15, 2008
Posted on: November 26, 2010 11:06 am
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Hey Cubs!  Here is our guy, He loves to win and he can get guys out
and if he loses we don't have to send him to anger management!
I Love Big Z but its time to pack his bags and send him in Royal Blue.Money mouth 
Here is the trade - Big Z, Fukudome, Soriano for Greinke & Butler. 
Oh that means you would have to cut a check to Crawford and add him to the outfield.



Since: Apr 13, 2007
Posted on: November 23, 2010 12:20 pm
 

Hot Stove League profile: Zack Greinke

Pretty good write up, but a couple of things about the material:

 - Drew Vettleson, as a 2010 draftee, caouldn't be included until a year has elapsed following signing with Tampa Bay

 - I can't imagine that Julio Teheran would be on the table, even for a young, legitimate ace like Zack Greinke.  Atlanta could (& should) inquire, but Teheran has the same kind of talent as Greinke & I'd think just about untouchable. 

- If Kyle Drabek's the top piece, I would have to think that Travis Snider would be coming to KC too.  In fact, though not a real bulky package, something like Drabek/Snider or Brett Cecil/Snider/JP Arencibia might be sufficient package for a top flight guy like Greinke (although losing Snider would be tough& assuming the Jays could work out a fair extension with the 26 year old Greinke past 2012. 



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