Did the Red Sox mess up in not signing Victor Martinez?On one hand, giving four years to an aging catcher rarely works out well. It's a near lock that by year four, the Tigers will be looking forward to the expiration of Martinez' deal just like they did for Magglio Ordonez and are anticipating with Carlos Guillen.
However, does that necessarily mean the deal is a poor one?
After all, for the next two-to-three years, the Tigers have a premier bat in the middle of the order. While Detroit plans to use him as primarily DH, Boston would have kept him as its backstop for at least the next two seasons. He would have provided incredible value over and above most other catchers, which may have been worth the extra year.
And after those two years, V-Mart could have shifted to first or DH. It's debatable whether he would have had the stick to last at those positions at that point, but one has to imagine he would still be able to bring the thunder. With the flexibility Martinez offers, the team would have been able to go into many different directions -- up to and including trading Martinez if push came to shove.
The Red Sox have experience with a tough situation in the last couple years of a deal, with Mike Lowell finally being erased from the payroll. This may have influenced Boston's thinking, but Martinez is in a bit of a different situation than Lowell, able to catch, play first and DH and would likely have more residual trade value than the longtime Marlin. In addition, injuries largely sunk Lowell and those can't be predicted.
Over the last few years, GM Theo Epstein has become far more conservative in deals, such as Mark Teixeira. The notable exception is the curious (panic-motivated?) signing of John Lackey. That philosophy has reduced the Red Sox's chances of getting bit, but it's also reduced Boston's chances of contending.(It would be a disservice to Epstein here to not point out the decisions that have worked out as a result of his philosophy. Exhibit A is Jason Bay, who may yet still bounce back for New York. You can't assume Bay would have struggled in Fenway like he did for the Mets, nor that he would have suffered a concussion, but facts are facts, and Bay turned in a terrible season.)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia is long on potential and could end up with a Jason Varitek-ian career in Boston, but he could just as easily wash out of his third organization. Boston likely would have been better on the field with Martinez than Saltalamacchia in 2011 and 2012 (unless Salty finally lives up to expectations).
Given the team is built to win now, is the value of those two years worth a potential dropoff in the fourth year of the deal -- or even third year? Is the increased chance of a World Series in the next two seasons worth that one season of gritting your teeth and waiting for Martinez' deal to expire -- if it even happens?
Tough questions. No way to answer them.
But this much is clear: Epstein has become far more conservative in recent years, and has drawn the ire of the fanbase as a result. Whether or not Epstein's lack of going for the jugular is truly holding the team back is a mystery yet to be solved.
-- Evan Brunell
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