Blog Entry

Additions of Crawford, Gonzalez not a cut above?

Posted on: December 12, 2010 9:30 pm
 
There's certainly cause for celebration in Boston these days, as the Red Sox have added Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to an incredibly deep lineup.

However, is the lineup any better than 2010, when Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre helped anchor it?

Check out the figures below for the players' 2010 seasons:

  G AB H R 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
Victor Martinez 127 493 149 64 32 20 79 0.302 0.351 0.493 0.844
Adrian Beltre 154 589 189 84 49 28 102 0.321 0.365 0.553 0.919
Total 281 1082 338 148 81 48 181        
                       
Carl Crawford 154 600 184 110 30 19 90 0.307 0.356 0.495 0.851
Adrian Gonzalez 160 591 176 87 33 31 101 0.298 0.393 0.511 0.904
Total 314 1191 360 197 63 50 191        

The bold numbers indicate who holds the edge in the categories in question.

So far, the new duo blows the old duo out of the water. More hits, runs and RBI by a comfortable margin. The one warning sign comes in home runs where Crawford/Gonzalez only lead by two but trail significantly in doubles.

There's one problem, though: while Crawford and Beltre both appeared in 154 games, there's quite a divide in games played by Gonzalez and Martinez. Gonzalez got to play in 160 while Martinez played in less thanks to being a catcher and missing time with injury. That limited V-Mart to just 127 games.

Let's look at the numbers again, but pro-rated over a full 162 games:

162-game projections G H R 2B HR RBI          
Victor Martinez 162 190 82 41 26 101          
Adrian Beltre 162 199 88 52 29 107          
Total 324 389 170 92 55 208          
                       
Carl Crawford 162 194 116 32 20 95          
Adrian Gonzalez 162 178 88 33 31 102          
Total 324 372 204 65 51 197          

Now that changes things a bit.

There are a few caveats, however. First is the lack of impact defense has on this chart. Gonzalez and Crawford are Gold Glove-caliber players. Beltre is as well at third, but V-Mart certainly isn't a defensive catcher. In fact, Detroit plans to have him play the bulk of his time at DH.

In favor of Crawford and Gonzalez in this comparison is the fact that Gonzalez' power number should rise dramatically at Fenway. Crawford, too, may be able to get over the 20-home run hump that is causing many to scoff at such a lucrative deal for someone who has never hit 20 home runs. Given Crawford impacts the game in so many other ways and checked in with 19 home runs in 2010, it's a strange thing to scoff at.

In addition, it's no sure thing Martinez could repeat his numbers if he continued down the path of catching full-time, although he probably would have approximated his numbers once more in 2011. Beltre, on the other hand, has now turned in two sublime seasons in contract years and hasn't been a factor on offense otherwise. His volatility cannot be discounted.

Ah, but on the flip side, Martinez and Beltre both fill impact positions at catcher and third base. The former position is no easy feat to find above-average offensive production, while third base is important defensively and is no picnic to fill offensively.

First base and left field, on the other hand, are two of the easiest positions to find bats at -- and even defense, if one was so inclined. But defense at first and left is less important than other positions.

Will Beltre and Martinez outperform Crawford and Gonzalez next season offensively as well as defensively? Probably not, but the difference is a lot closer than one may think.

-- Evan Brunell

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Comments

Since: Sep 27, 2006
Posted on: December 13, 2010 2:17 am
 

Additions of Crawford, Gonzalez not a cut above?

The poster is clearly biased who picks and chooses the stats he wants to use.

He wasn't gonna compare Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez's 2009 numbers against Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford's 2010 numbers because he wouldn't have an argument. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez's 2010 numbers were far superior to Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez's 2009 numbers. Just like he purposely left out Carl Crawford's steals because it again takes away from his argument.

Basically whatever took away from his argument he left out on purpose to try and make it seem like Adrian Beltre and Victor Matinez are on the same level as Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Which everyone knows if compared fairly, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are leaps and bounds better than Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.



Since: Jul 13, 2010
Posted on: December 13, 2010 2:04 am
 

Additions of Crawford, Gonzalez not a cut above?

i believe these 2 are much better the vmart and beltre also but the best stolen base tandem in the lg wont be crawford and elsbury it will be ichiro and figgins...just my opinion



Since: Dec 14, 2007
Posted on: December 13, 2010 12:52 am
 

Additions of Crawford, Gonzalez not a cut above?

I noticed that stolen bases were not mentined as a category in your article or theory nor age!  Carl Crawford creates runs by his speed and smarts but the author quitely ignored that variable to support his own narrow minded opinion that is based on nothing more than last years stats.  Yeah, he's a real fan?  No he is a pencil pushing nerd with no baseball knowledge who bases all of his opinions only on the most recent statistics.  What a joke!  How about the fact that Adrian Beltre is in his mid to late 30's and had a career year last year in a great line up and will never put up those numbers again?  He will not duplicate that or have the same circumstances as he did in Boston.  I am sure that both Gonzalez and Crawford will do even better in Fenway Park compared to there last home fields and are under 30 years old in a tremendous lineup. 
; I am pretty sure that is a big upgrade for years to come author.  Crawford and Ellsbury will be the best base steaing tandum on an already stacked team and will win the World Series.  This whole article is just fundamentally incorrect written by a moron!  Go Red Sox!  The author should probably watch and learn about baseball before writing an article based solely on impericale evidence from last year!

GO RED SOX- TB from CT




Since: Nov 14, 2006
Posted on: December 13, 2010 12:03 am
 

Additions of Crawford, Gonzalez not a cut above?

How about the comparison before beltre and vmart played at fenway ? not to mention these guys are in their prime and not at the end of it. crawford and agon will hit for better numbers at fenway and beltre and vmart will slide.

agon and crowfords numbers will improve with their age where beltre and vmarts will decline.

this comparison is useless as it only shows stats and time frame that suits the argument, this is a sign of weak journalism.



Since: Dec 12, 2010
Posted on: December 12, 2010 11:44 pm
 

Additions of Crawford, Gonzalez not a cut above?

Mr Brunell appears to be ignorant or bias, not sure which.  I don't see the SB category or any mention of steals.  When comparing slow old players like V-Mart to Crawford you may want to mention speed.  It is a determining factor, or caveat as he seemed to miss.  No comparison really, this is a total reach and a non-story.  It's not even close.


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