Blog Entry

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Posted on: November 2, 2011 10:05 pm
Edited on: November 18, 2011 5:00 pm
 
Free agents

By Evan Brunell


This winter's free agent crop bolstered by some elite players hitting the market, led by Albert Pujols, who will hold the mantle of being the best player of the 21st century for quite some time. Where he ends up has been one of baseball's burning questions for two years, and the answer is finally here... and if my psychic chops are up to par, I have him returning to St. Louis.

As many as four contracts totaling $100 million could be handed out with Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson all vying for the honor. (Five if you include CC Sabathia extending with New York for $122 million). For comparison, last winter saw three players score at least $100 million in their new deals -- Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth.

Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Beltran, Heath Bell, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Mark Buehrle round out the list of 10 predictions. Hang onto your hats, because there are a couple interesting destinations I have players ending up in. If you can't get enough free-agent news, check out the predictions by all CBSSports.com experts. Or how about the free-agent tracker?

Let's get to it.

Free Agency Predictions
Player Prediction
1B Albert Pujols Cardinals
It's just too difficult to see Pujols leaving the Cardinals, and it doesn't work in his favor that many teams that could have paid for his services are all set at first base. Given the increasing likelihood that Pujols won't match Alex Rodriguez's record contract of 10 years and $275 million, it will put him squarely in St. Louis' price range, but the club has to be ready to boost its offer. If the Cards dig in and aren't willing to compromise, he will leave town. Skipper Tony La Russa retiring does throw a wrench into things, but in the end, why would Pujols leave a place he is beloved and knows he will win?
Three other possibles: Cubs, Nationals, Rangers
1B Prince Fielder Mariners
The Mariners have money -- they just haven't had an impetus to spend it just yet. But with a rapidly improving rotation, the M's are not far off from contention and can build around Fielder and second baseman Dustin Ackley, as well as Justin Smoak (they hope). Seattle's offense has been so horribly bad the last two years they really can't afford not to go after a big thumper that can change the complexion of the lineup. Having the DH works in Seattle's favor too, as they have a place to play him in the future, if and when he becomes even more of a liability on D. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was the one to draft and develop Fielder in Milwaukee, but has yet to really play in the free agent market since taking over the team.
Three other possibles: Orioles, Brewers, Nationals
SS Jose Reyes Giants
The Giants need a hitter and can withstand the loss of Carlos Beltran in the outfield, so expect the team to focus on a position of dire need by signing Reyes. The club has pretty much zero shortstop depth, which was exposed last year with a decrepit Miguel Tejada falling out of favor and the club cycling through shortstops the rest of the way. Reyes would be a dynamo for the Giants and would give the club the perfect leadoff man. The club has never been one to worry about losing a draft pick as compensation, and could actually work in their favor by giving them more money to allocate to Reyes.
Three other possibles: Mets, Giants, Nationals
SP C.J. Wilson Royals
Wilson is a solid pitcher, but he's a bit overrated. Teams trying to get over the hump and contend again will overlook his deficiencies to make a statement, and Kansas City is motivated to find a major-league starting pitcher that can top the rotation and bring the youngsters along. The Royals will have money to spend and can also entice Wilson by showing him how the team is on the rise, and how his signing will allow them to trade some minor-league pitchers for major-league help. He should land an A.J. Burnett/John Lackey-type deal of five years and north of $80 million.
Three other possibles: Nationals, Angels, Yankees
CL Jonathan Papelbon Papelbon
The Red Sox can't afford to let Papelbon go, not after having one of his best seasons to date. There are reports that Papelbon started emerging as a leader in 2011, which Boston obviously needs following the wake of clubhouse issues last season. In addition, retaining Papelbon allows Boston to keep Daniel Bard in his setup role where he is more valuable than he would be as a closer. Papelbon will be looking for lots of money, but will be well within Boston's price range. The club has enough issues to deal with without worrying about having to fill the closer's spot, which is one of heavy responsibility -- something Papelbon craves.
Three other possibles: Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays
RF Carlos Beltran
Marlins
The Marlins have money to spend and will be looking to make a splash heading into their new stadium. Beltran would be a popular name, especially given he is a native Puerto Rican, which the Marlins have tried to cultivate as a fan base (and have held regular-season games in Puerto Rico). There isn't any space currently in the Marlins outfield, but nothing that can't change to accommodate Beltran. Despite Beltran's advanced age, he would fit nicely in the order on a team expected to contend.
Three other possibles: Giants, Red Sox, Pirates
CL Heath Bell
Phillies
I was tempted and go rogue here, tabbing the Phillies. I do believe that Philadelphia would love Bell to be its next closer, especially if Ryan Madson doesn't return. But I can't ignore the fact that Bell would be willing to accept arbitration to stay with the Padres, which would lock him to San Diego for just one season. The small-market Pads would love having that flexibility of an elite closer under contract for just one year. Despite Bell wanting a three-year deal, the mere fact he would accept arbitration -- and said so publicly -- means that a deal will happen between both sides.
Three other possibles: Phillies, Dodgers, Twins
SS Jimmy Rollins
Phillies
Rollins probably won't get the five-year deal he thinks he deserves, but Philadelphia can't afford to mess around here. Rollins is very popular in town and while his MVP days are behind him, he is still a very good shortstop. The Phillies could be in serious trouble if Reyes and Rollins sign elsewhere, as the club has very poor infield depth. Not getting Rollins back (or Reyes as a fallback) would force the team into making a trade for a shortstop, and this is a club that needs to start hanging onto its minor-league talent. With an entire infield in flux, it makes no sense for Philadelphia to compromise what depth they have in prospect Freddy Galvis, who is 21 and looks to need at least another full year in the minors.
Three other possibles: Giants, Brewers, Mariners
Buerhle SP Mark Buehrle Yankees
The White Sox are "letting the kids play" in 2012, but that doesn't necessarily signal a rebuilding. There is enough talent on the squad that, if things break right, could leave Chicago in contention. Any deal would likely be predicated on what Chicago does with Carlos Quentin and John Danks, the two prime pieces that could be traded. Buerhle's loyalty factors in here too -- he wants to either be a White Sox or pitch for his hometown Cards. But if St. Louis resigns Pujols and closes its checkbook and the White Sox raze the team, he'll have to seek employment elsewhere. The guess here is Buerhle comes back, even if a ring isn't likely.
Three other possibles: Yankees, Cardinals, Marlins
CL Ryan Madson Blue Jays
The Blue Jays need a closer and are an up-and-coming team. Their market is large, and that club can eventually support a payroll north of $100 million. While Toronto is better off keeping much of its finances in its back pocket until a better free-agent class, Madson makes too much sense for the Jays to pass up. His market will be depressed thanks to the amount of closers available in free agency, plus the fact he doesn't have a history of closing beyond 2011. The Jays will want a young closer, and Madson will fit the bill as one of the youngest available -- he's the same age as Papelbon, but will come at a lesser price.
Three other possibles: Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers

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Comments

Since: Apr 21, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 12:26 pm
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Coupla typo's corrected...

Wow.  A team (or fans of a team) should be "blessed" (!) if Reyes sniffs their clubhouse?! 

Pardon me, but I do not share the enthusiasm or sentiment - much less consider the haughtiness well-placed.

Initial reports were that Reyes wants Crawford-type money.  Sincerely hope nobody thinks a middle-infielder whose main game is triples and stolen bases - with a recurring hamstring problem and a pi$$-poor/me-first attitude - is worth anywhere near that money.  Heck, Crawford himself proved he's not worth the Crawford-money - and to me, he's got a whole lot more potential/upside than Reyes does at this stage of their respective careers.

Middle infielders decline more quickly in value than any position other than catcher.  A 30-year-old bad attitude, hammy-strung shortstop is just not the place to put this many eggs - no matter how desperate.

I will consider myself blessed if the team I root for comes nowhere near "sniffing" in Reyes' direction.




Since: Apr 21, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 12:23 pm
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Wow.  A team (or fans of a team) should be "blessed" (!) if Reyes sniffs their clubhouse?! 

Pardon me, but I do not share the enthusiasm or sentiment - much less consider done the haughtiness well-placed.

Initial reports were that Reyes wants Crawford-type money.  Sincerely hope nobody thinks a middle-infielder whose main game is triples and stolen bases - with a recurring hamstring problem and a pi$$-poor/me-first attitude is not worth anywhere near that money.  Heck, Crawford himself proved he's not worth the Crawford-money - and to me, he's got a whole lot more potential/upside that Reyes does at this stage of their respective careers.

Middle infielders decline more quickly in value than any position other than catcher.  A 30-year-old bad attitude, hammy-strung shortstop is just not the place to put this many eggs - no matter how desperate.

I will consider myself blessed if the team I root for comes nowhere near "sniffing" in Reyes' direction.



Since: Dec 29, 2006
Posted on: November 6, 2011 10:24 pm
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

If I were Boston, I would rather have Madson than Paps.  I would rather have Cuddyer than Beltran.  I would love to have Albert and convince him to play 3b some 1b and Dh on occasion.  If no Albert, probably Sox give Papi another shot. I might take a hard look at Buehrle. CJ Wilson seems a little pricey.  Willingham is another possibility if no Cuddyer.  I wonder if Crawford is tradeable? Is Hanley Ramirez available? Lots to think about.



Since: Dec 15, 2006
Posted on: November 6, 2011 11:46 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Let me guess, Reyes would look great in Dodger blue though, right? Haha, you wish the Giants were desperate. 2010 World Champs



Since: Feb 2, 2009
Posted on: November 6, 2011 11:30 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

I sure hope the Giants don't throw a ton of money at Reyes and along with that I hope they don't sign him to a long term contract either. The ghost of Barry Zito still haunts me and I would hate to see another ghost take his place. Reyes past hammy injuries would make me cringe every time he tried to steal a base.
you should be blessed if reyes ever sniffed the giants clubhouse... zito reyes? cant compare the two



Since: Nov 5, 2007
Posted on: November 6, 2011 11:03 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Madson is a CA guy. If he's not back with the Phils, he goes somewhere in the Golden State.



Since: Sep 21, 2011
Posted on: November 6, 2011 11:01 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

where does Papi end up?



Since: May 6, 2007
Posted on: November 6, 2011 8:38 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

pujols - rangersfielder - red sox (ortiz is gone)
reyes - giants
wilson - angels
papelbon - rangers
beltran - marlins
bell - dodgers
rollins - phillies
buerhle - yankees
madson - redsox



Since: May 27, 2008
Posted on: November 6, 2011 8:34 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

I dont understand why no one is talking Toronto for a possible destination for some of these guys. Fielder/ Pujols would fit perfectly. Toronto has a ton of dough to spend with the new country wide tv deal they got and first base this year was manned by Edwin Encarnacion most of the year. They have good young pitching achored by Ricky Romero and a lineup that was top five in runs. A piece like Prince or Albert would push them toward contention for the division

On a side note the Red Sox should look to get Carlos Beltran, a Switch hitting right fielder, who can provide Adrian Gonzalez with a little protection.



Since: Jun 4, 2008
Posted on: November 6, 2011 1:17 am
 

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

I sure hope the Giants don't throw a ton of money at Reyes and along with that I hope they don't sign him to a long term contract either. The ghost of Barry Zito still haunts me and I would hate to see another ghost take his place. Reyes past hammy injuries would make me cringe every time he tried to steal a base.


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