Blog Entry

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Posted on: November 2, 2011 10:05 pm
Edited on: November 18, 2011 5:00 pm
Free agents

By Evan Brunell

This winter's free agent crop bolstered by some elite players hitting the market, led by Albert Pujols, who will hold the mantle of being the best player of the 21st century for quite some time. Where he ends up has been one of baseball's burning questions for two years, and the answer is finally here... and if my psychic chops are up to par, I have him returning to St. Louis.

As many as four contracts totaling $100 million could be handed out with Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson all vying for the honor. (Five if you include CC Sabathia extending with New York for $122 million). For comparison, last winter saw three players score at least $100 million in their new deals -- Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth.

Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Beltran, Heath Bell, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Mark Buehrle round out the list of 10 predictions. Hang onto your hats, because there are a couple interesting destinations I have players ending up in. If you can't get enough free-agent news, check out the predictions by all experts. Or how about the free-agent tracker?

Let's get to it.

Free Agency Predictions
Player Prediction
1B Albert Pujols Cardinals
It's just too difficult to see Pujols leaving the Cardinals, and it doesn't work in his favor that many teams that could have paid for his services are all set at first base. Given the increasing likelihood that Pujols won't match Alex Rodriguez's record contract of 10 years and $275 million, it will put him squarely in St. Louis' price range, but the club has to be ready to boost its offer. If the Cards dig in and aren't willing to compromise, he will leave town. Skipper Tony La Russa retiring does throw a wrench into things, but in the end, why would Pujols leave a place he is beloved and knows he will win?
Three other possibles: Cubs, Nationals, Rangers
1B Prince Fielder Mariners
The Mariners have money -- they just haven't had an impetus to spend it just yet. But with a rapidly improving rotation, the M's are not far off from contention and can build around Fielder and second baseman Dustin Ackley, as well as Justin Smoak (they hope). Seattle's offense has been so horribly bad the last two years they really can't afford not to go after a big thumper that can change the complexion of the lineup. Having the DH works in Seattle's favor too, as they have a place to play him in the future, if and when he becomes even more of a liability on D. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was the one to draft and develop Fielder in Milwaukee, but has yet to really play in the free agent market since taking over the team.
Three other possibles: Orioles, Brewers, Nationals
SS Jose Reyes Giants
The Giants need a hitter and can withstand the loss of Carlos Beltran in the outfield, so expect the team to focus on a position of dire need by signing Reyes. The club has pretty much zero shortstop depth, which was exposed last year with a decrepit Miguel Tejada falling out of favor and the club cycling through shortstops the rest of the way. Reyes would be a dynamo for the Giants and would give the club the perfect leadoff man. The club has never been one to worry about losing a draft pick as compensation, and could actually work in their favor by giving them more money to allocate to Reyes.
Three other possibles: Mets, Giants, Nationals
SP C.J. Wilson Royals
Wilson is a solid pitcher, but he's a bit overrated. Teams trying to get over the hump and contend again will overlook his deficiencies to make a statement, and Kansas City is motivated to find a major-league starting pitcher that can top the rotation and bring the youngsters along. The Royals will have money to spend and can also entice Wilson by showing him how the team is on the rise, and how his signing will allow them to trade some minor-league pitchers for major-league help. He should land an A.J. Burnett/John Lackey-type deal of five years and north of $80 million.
Three other possibles: Nationals, Angels, Yankees
CL Jonathan Papelbon Papelbon
The Red Sox can't afford to let Papelbon go, not after having one of his best seasons to date. There are reports that Papelbon started emerging as a leader in 2011, which Boston obviously needs following the wake of clubhouse issues last season. In addition, retaining Papelbon allows Boston to keep Daniel Bard in his setup role where he is more valuable than he would be as a closer. Papelbon will be looking for lots of money, but will be well within Boston's price range. The club has enough issues to deal with without worrying about having to fill the closer's spot, which is one of heavy responsibility -- something Papelbon craves.
Three other possibles: Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays
RF Carlos Beltran
The Marlins have money to spend and will be looking to make a splash heading into their new stadium. Beltran would be a popular name, especially given he is a native Puerto Rican, which the Marlins have tried to cultivate as a fan base (and have held regular-season games in Puerto Rico). There isn't any space currently in the Marlins outfield, but nothing that can't change to accommodate Beltran. Despite Beltran's advanced age, he would fit nicely in the order on a team expected to contend.
Three other possibles: Giants, Red Sox, Pirates
CL Heath Bell
I was tempted and go rogue here, tabbing the Phillies. I do believe that Philadelphia would love Bell to be its next closer, especially if Ryan Madson doesn't return. But I can't ignore the fact that Bell would be willing to accept arbitration to stay with the Padres, which would lock him to San Diego for just one season. The small-market Pads would love having that flexibility of an elite closer under contract for just one year. Despite Bell wanting a three-year deal, the mere fact he would accept arbitration -- and said so publicly -- means that a deal will happen between both sides.
Three other possibles: Phillies, Dodgers, Twins
SS Jimmy Rollins
Rollins probably won't get the five-year deal he thinks he deserves, but Philadelphia can't afford to mess around here. Rollins is very popular in town and while his MVP days are behind him, he is still a very good shortstop. The Phillies could be in serious trouble if Reyes and Rollins sign elsewhere, as the club has very poor infield depth. Not getting Rollins back (or Reyes as a fallback) would force the team into making a trade for a shortstop, and this is a club that needs to start hanging onto its minor-league talent. With an entire infield in flux, it makes no sense for Philadelphia to compromise what depth they have in prospect Freddy Galvis, who is 21 and looks to need at least another full year in the minors.
Three other possibles: Giants, Brewers, Mariners
Buerhle SP Mark Buehrle Yankees
The White Sox are "letting the kids play" in 2012, but that doesn't necessarily signal a rebuilding. There is enough talent on the squad that, if things break right, could leave Chicago in contention. Any deal would likely be predicated on what Chicago does with Carlos Quentin and John Danks, the two prime pieces that could be traded. Buerhle's loyalty factors in here too -- he wants to either be a White Sox or pitch for his hometown Cards. But if St. Louis resigns Pujols and closes its checkbook and the White Sox raze the team, he'll have to seek employment elsewhere. The guess here is Buerhle comes back, even if a ring isn't likely.
Three other possibles: Yankees, Cardinals, Marlins
CL Ryan Madson Blue Jays
The Blue Jays need a closer and are an up-and-coming team. Their market is large, and that club can eventually support a payroll north of $100 million. While Toronto is better off keeping much of its finances in its back pocket until a better free-agent class, Madson makes too much sense for the Jays to pass up. His market will be depressed thanks to the amount of closers available in free agency, plus the fact he doesn't have a history of closing beyond 2011. The Jays will want a young closer, and Madson will fit the bill as one of the youngest available -- he's the same age as Papelbon, but will come at a lesser price.
Three other possibles: Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers

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Since: Mar 22, 2007
Posted on: November 3, 2011 11:24 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Twins should go after Buehrle.  Best FA pitcher available and would kill two birds with one stone.

Since: Aug 15, 2007
Posted on: November 3, 2011 11:12 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Brewer fan here as well. Are you kidding? 10/130? Hell, the Brewers will offer him that much. While I agree that his market is not as big as he thinks it is he is still looking at 17-20 mil per. Try somewhere in the 8/160 to 10/180 range.

Since: Sep 21, 2006
Posted on: November 3, 2011 10:54 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Dont be surprised if the Mets try to bring back Beltran, especially if Reyes leaves.  Beltran loved New York and despite what people think,  he actually had a very nice career with the Mets.  He averages roughly .280, 27 HR, 105 RBI, 18 SB during his time with the Mets.

Since: May 4, 2010
Posted on: November 3, 2011 10:50 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Nice headline picture for the article:  7 teams pictured Atlanta, Colorado, Cleveland, Tampa, Minnesota, Phily & Toronto.  He must have just thrown darts blindfolded to pick what teams these guys are going to since only 3 of those 7 were picked.

Since: Jul 28, 2011
Posted on: November 3, 2011 10:15 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: Aug 17, 2006
Posted on: November 3, 2011 10:14 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Evan, you are predicting no one will sign with the Orioles?    What you think just because they do not have a GM, a winning team in over a decade, and more empty seats most game Boise St's entire football stadium that our owner will not overpay a player that was really good about 5 years ago.  Jimmy Rollins or C.J. Wilson just scream 6 years and 75 M from Peter Angelos.   

I am also shocked to see that the Yankees and Red Sox are not going to go after Albert Pujols.    Sure
 they have all star 1st baseman now, but the Yankees had Jorge Posada at DH and the Red Sox still have David Ortiz and of course I just do not see both of them passing on the best hitter in baseball that just won a world series and the beg money of the east did not win or even play in.    They might be playing it cool now but just watch out.

If the Rangers get Albert Pujols watch out what will happen in that loaded lineup and in the Ball Park with all those hot summer nights.        

Since: Nov 29, 2007
Posted on: November 3, 2011 9:18 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Big Mac will have all the Cardinals selling steroids to pay for PUHOLES contract. HGH to be exact. Anybody who doesn't think Puhole is not taking HGH is retarded or smokes crack. It is a fact!!!!!!!! 

Since: Dec 23, 2010
Posted on: November 3, 2011 8:55 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Were in big TROUBLE...knobler has pick Albert to stay in Saint Louis. This guy has picked against Saint Louis all throughout the Playoffs and we have seen the Cardinals become World Champions. Now he picks Pujols to stay he is never correct. If Albert  leaves which I hope he doesn't , we should use the money saved to go after a very good Starter to go with Wainwright-Carp-Garcia... Then put Berkman in Right Field and put Craig at 1ST Base. Then go and get a SS and Left Handed Reliever. The money saved can do all that.

Since: Aug 25, 2010
Posted on: November 3, 2011 8:37 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

There is no way that you can compare Fielder to Dunn. Dunn has been a very low average hitter since the days of him and Austin kearn coming up in Cincy. Fielder's lowest avg. was 260 last year, he's a career 280 AVG hitter. He cut down on his K's(Granted It was his free agent year) and is a guarantee to hit at least 30 HR's 100 RBI's for a while. The dude Is only 26 Years old, no way that his skills will start to deteriorate where he has to become a DH within 2 years. I say Fielder 1-5 years because he'll be a very powerful 1st basemen. 6-9 years cause he'll be a great DH, especially If he goes to a hitter firendly park. I see him getting a 10 year $130 million contract.

Since: Jun 3, 2011
Posted on: November 3, 2011 8:29 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

With the right selection at manager Albert will stay where he is comfortable, this needs to happen quick or the Cubs pitch may be too good to pass up.  Wilson or Buehrle need to decide if they want to be and get paid as the ace of a staff or if they would like to consider being the Yankees #3 behind CC and Nova.  Jimmy rollins is a Phillie and always should be as Jeter is a Yankee, he was there for the bad let him stay while its good.  The Red Sox are looking at a rebuild with a new manager and nobody would blame Papplebon if he went to a contender to try to win one more ring.

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