Blog Entry

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Posted on: November 2, 2011 10:05 pm
Edited on: November 18, 2011 5:00 pm
Free agents

By Evan Brunell

This winter's free agent crop bolstered by some elite players hitting the market, led by Albert Pujols, who will hold the mantle of being the best player of the 21st century for quite some time. Where he ends up has been one of baseball's burning questions for two years, and the answer is finally here... and if my psychic chops are up to par, I have him returning to St. Louis.

As many as four contracts totaling $100 million could be handed out with Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson all vying for the honor. (Five if you include CC Sabathia extending with New York for $122 million). For comparison, last winter saw three players score at least $100 million in their new deals -- Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth.

Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Beltran, Heath Bell, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Mark Buehrle round out the list of 10 predictions. Hang onto your hats, because there are a couple interesting destinations I have players ending up in. If you can't get enough free-agent news, check out the predictions by all experts. Or how about the free-agent tracker?

Let's get to it.

Free Agency Predictions
Player Prediction
1B Albert Pujols Cardinals
It's just too difficult to see Pujols leaving the Cardinals, and it doesn't work in his favor that many teams that could have paid for his services are all set at first base. Given the increasing likelihood that Pujols won't match Alex Rodriguez's record contract of 10 years and $275 million, it will put him squarely in St. Louis' price range, but the club has to be ready to boost its offer. If the Cards dig in and aren't willing to compromise, he will leave town. Skipper Tony La Russa retiring does throw a wrench into things, but in the end, why would Pujols leave a place he is beloved and knows he will win?
Three other possibles: Cubs, Nationals, Rangers
1B Prince Fielder Mariners
The Mariners have money -- they just haven't had an impetus to spend it just yet. But with a rapidly improving rotation, the M's are not far off from contention and can build around Fielder and second baseman Dustin Ackley, as well as Justin Smoak (they hope). Seattle's offense has been so horribly bad the last two years they really can't afford not to go after a big thumper that can change the complexion of the lineup. Having the DH works in Seattle's favor too, as they have a place to play him in the future, if and when he becomes even more of a liability on D. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was the one to draft and develop Fielder in Milwaukee, but has yet to really play in the free agent market since taking over the team.
Three other possibles: Orioles, Brewers, Nationals
SS Jose Reyes Giants
The Giants need a hitter and can withstand the loss of Carlos Beltran in the outfield, so expect the team to focus on a position of dire need by signing Reyes. The club has pretty much zero shortstop depth, which was exposed last year with a decrepit Miguel Tejada falling out of favor and the club cycling through shortstops the rest of the way. Reyes would be a dynamo for the Giants and would give the club the perfect leadoff man. The club has never been one to worry about losing a draft pick as compensation, and could actually work in their favor by giving them more money to allocate to Reyes.
Three other possibles: Mets, Giants, Nationals
SP C.J. Wilson Royals
Wilson is a solid pitcher, but he's a bit overrated. Teams trying to get over the hump and contend again will overlook his deficiencies to make a statement, and Kansas City is motivated to find a major-league starting pitcher that can top the rotation and bring the youngsters along. The Royals will have money to spend and can also entice Wilson by showing him how the team is on the rise, and how his signing will allow them to trade some minor-league pitchers for major-league help. He should land an A.J. Burnett/John Lackey-type deal of five years and north of $80 million.
Three other possibles: Nationals, Angels, Yankees
CL Jonathan Papelbon Papelbon
The Red Sox can't afford to let Papelbon go, not after having one of his best seasons to date. There are reports that Papelbon started emerging as a leader in 2011, which Boston obviously needs following the wake of clubhouse issues last season. In addition, retaining Papelbon allows Boston to keep Daniel Bard in his setup role where he is more valuable than he would be as a closer. Papelbon will be looking for lots of money, but will be well within Boston's price range. The club has enough issues to deal with without worrying about having to fill the closer's spot, which is one of heavy responsibility -- something Papelbon craves.
Three other possibles: Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays
RF Carlos Beltran
The Marlins have money to spend and will be looking to make a splash heading into their new stadium. Beltran would be a popular name, especially given he is a native Puerto Rican, which the Marlins have tried to cultivate as a fan base (and have held regular-season games in Puerto Rico). There isn't any space currently in the Marlins outfield, but nothing that can't change to accommodate Beltran. Despite Beltran's advanced age, he would fit nicely in the order on a team expected to contend.
Three other possibles: Giants, Red Sox, Pirates
CL Heath Bell
I was tempted and go rogue here, tabbing the Phillies. I do believe that Philadelphia would love Bell to be its next closer, especially if Ryan Madson doesn't return. But I can't ignore the fact that Bell would be willing to accept arbitration to stay with the Padres, which would lock him to San Diego for just one season. The small-market Pads would love having that flexibility of an elite closer under contract for just one year. Despite Bell wanting a three-year deal, the mere fact he would accept arbitration -- and said so publicly -- means that a deal will happen between both sides.
Three other possibles: Phillies, Dodgers, Twins
SS Jimmy Rollins
Rollins probably won't get the five-year deal he thinks he deserves, but Philadelphia can't afford to mess around here. Rollins is very popular in town and while his MVP days are behind him, he is still a very good shortstop. The Phillies could be in serious trouble if Reyes and Rollins sign elsewhere, as the club has very poor infield depth. Not getting Rollins back (or Reyes as a fallback) would force the team into making a trade for a shortstop, and this is a club that needs to start hanging onto its minor-league talent. With an entire infield in flux, it makes no sense for Philadelphia to compromise what depth they have in prospect Freddy Galvis, who is 21 and looks to need at least another full year in the minors.
Three other possibles: Giants, Brewers, Mariners
Buerhle SP Mark Buehrle Yankees
The White Sox are "letting the kids play" in 2012, but that doesn't necessarily signal a rebuilding. There is enough talent on the squad that, if things break right, could leave Chicago in contention. Any deal would likely be predicated on what Chicago does with Carlos Quentin and John Danks, the two prime pieces that could be traded. Buerhle's loyalty factors in here too -- he wants to either be a White Sox or pitch for his hometown Cards. But if St. Louis resigns Pujols and closes its checkbook and the White Sox raze the team, he'll have to seek employment elsewhere. The guess here is Buerhle comes back, even if a ring isn't likely.
Three other possibles: Yankees, Cardinals, Marlins
CL Ryan Madson Blue Jays
The Blue Jays need a closer and are an up-and-coming team. Their market is large, and that club can eventually support a payroll north of $100 million. While Toronto is better off keeping much of its finances in its back pocket until a better free-agent class, Madson makes too much sense for the Jays to pass up. His market will be depressed thanks to the amount of closers available in free agency, plus the fact he doesn't have a history of closing beyond 2011. The Jays will want a young closer, and Madson will fit the bill as one of the youngest available -- he's the same age as Papelbon, but will come at a lesser price.
Three other possibles: Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers

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Since: Sep 7, 2006
Posted on: November 3, 2011 4:58 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

The Royals might go after Mark Buehrle if no other reason than to not have to face him in 2012 and beyond...he has dominated of them over the years...

Getting a quality starting pitcher for KC would just be the frosting on the cake...

CJ Wilson may be overrated, but he'd still be a good addition to the rotation...

Look for Kansas City to take a gander inside the organization first, and then make a trade/sign free agents if nececssary...they may initially go with the young guys, and if they are contending around June, maybe look to add a pitcher or so to make it through the rest of the season.

2013 will more likely be the year they reasonably can be expected to be a legit contender in the AL Central, but things could be accelerated by one year if the young position players stay the course and the young pitchers can realize their potential.

Already looking forward to the 2012 season...

Since: Aug 18, 2006
Posted on: November 3, 2011 4:02 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

I think Jose Reyes has a better chance of signing with the Marlins than Carlos Beltran. The Marlins focus does appear to be CF or 3B and once again pitching. The Marlins probably will land Burhle after they dispatch Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad by trade this offseason. Leo Nunez could be traded also which would drop their payroll down to about 30 Million with them expecting to raise the payroll to between 60-90 million. They certainly have the finances in order to land one of these big names so I doubt Beltran is the guy they are targeting.
Emilio Bonifacio had a breakout year so he is going to get CF. I would rather have him as a .280 hitter giving us 30+ stolen bases over a guy who can barely hit or field anymore.

Since: May 2, 2007
Posted on: November 3, 2011 1:03 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

i think prince gets to much hype about his weight. If you've seen him play over the years like I have. You'll see he has slimed down quit a bit since his earlier years. If I were the Brewers(fan) I wouldnt be upset with giving him 5 yrs and $100 million. And yes im a Brewers fan!  

I could see them going after Rollins. Since they are in need of a SS and if they cant resign Prince might as well fill the hole at SS.   

Since: Nov 18, 2006
Posted on: November 3, 2011 12:42 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Washington should really go after Prince. That team is poised to be very good over the next 5 years. If they sign Fielder, move Morse to LF, and trade for BJ Upton... Wow... that offense will be very good. Combined with that stellar young pitching staff and they will be scary for years.

Since: Aug 25, 2009
Posted on: November 3, 2011 12:36 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

This is an excellent analysis and probably somewhere about 85% on target.  It will be exciting to see the final result.  I would like to say however that it seems that players are beginning to have some sort of loyalty to teams.  Seems strange with all the money on the table but they are showing that they have roots in communities and feel comfortable with Managers and coaching staffs.  Pujols is one example.  He is rooted in St.Louis and very comfortable in that community.  Rollins is another. Fans appreciate Rollins and Rollins really likes Charlie Manuel.  Watch him in the dugout and you will see a lot of respect and community bonding.  I know there are more examples but I will stop with these two and see if the projections come true.

Since: Mar 9, 2011
Posted on: November 3, 2011 12:33 am

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

If Buster Posey is healthy next year, i hope Carlos Beltran comes back if not i think he might be signing with the Red Sox in all probability.That means i am just guessing.

Since: Dec 13, 2008
Posted on: November 2, 2011 11:38 pm

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

As a Jays fan the number one need is a closer, I would be happy with Madson, put think they will push hard for Papelbon.

Since: Nov 7, 2010
Posted on: November 2, 2011 11:30 pm

Predicting where baseball free agents will sign

Fielder:1-2 years 20mil..because he 'll be a powerful 1st baseman...3-4-5-6 years 10mil a year..becuase he'll be a wonderful 6x80mil...if more Fielder has to thank his manager!..his body structure can not allow to mantain a good agility to stay 1st longer than 2-3 years..
This kind of player can also suffer the DH desease(A.Dunn.....)...they cool down not to play field and they become a very expensive DH player batting .220 with 30 hr(homers is the only thing Fielder can garantee through years)

according to me also Papelbon is very risky long-term signings

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