Blog Entry

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers

Posted on: January 24, 2011 2:07 pm
Edited on: January 24, 2011 6:08 pm
 

Posted by Charley Casserly

It’d be hard to ask for a better matchup in Super Bowl XLV than the Green Bay Packers vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. These are the hottest teams in their respective conferences. Both have big-name quarterbacks, playmakers on offense and a host of Pro Bowl caliber contributors in their well-coached 3-4 defenses. It’s no wonder the oddsmakers and pundits are forecasting a close game. Here is an early overview of the matchup.

Three "X" FactorsB. Roethlisberger (US Presswire)

1. Super Bowl experience

The Steelers, only two years removed from winning Super Bowl XLIII, have an edge in experience that will come in to play both on and off the field. Having been in four Super Bowls myself, here is how I see the edge manifesting itself:

There are a lot of off the field distractions the players and staff have to deal with. These include ticket requests, media requests, family and friends travel, etc. The coaches have to manage these distractions while determining how much of the game plan to install at home and how much to install after arriving in Dallas. Some teams like to put in the game plan before they get to the Super Bowl site in order to have it done before the majority of distractions set in. Others want to wait so as not to have the players get bored or stale the week of the game.

The Steelers and their staff have dealt with this conundrum before. The Packers, for the most part, have not.


2. The two weeks to prepare and rest

I think this could favor or hurt Green Bay – we won't know until the game. On the one hand Green Bay is on a roll. They have faced elimination in their last five outings. They survived and, thus, have momentum. The two-week break could disrupt that momentum.
 
On the other hand, the break may be just the thing they need to get recharged. If they had to play next week, they maybe would run out of gas.

 
3. Green Bay’s familiarity with defensive scheme

The Packers may have an edge over many, if not all, of the opponents that the Steelers have played this year. That edge? They play the same 3-4 defense as Pittsburgh. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers and Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau worked together in Pittsburgh when LeBeau was the defensive backs coach when Capers was the defensive coordinator (1992-94). This will help Green Bay more than other teams that have had to prepare for Pittsburgh this season, as Green Bay will have had a better look in practice from their scout team in imitating Pittsburgh's defense.

 
Two key statistical categories that could come into play

 
1. Sacks per pass play

In terms of sacks per pass play, the Steelers offense ranks 30th in preventing sacks, while the Packers defense ranks third. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's offense is 20th in sacks per pass play while Pittsburgh’s defense is sixth. Just watching film, it would seem Green Bay has the edge here. The statistics agree.
 
Both teams will have the opportunity to sack the opposing QB. I believe it comes down to which QB can avoid the pressure and still make a play. Conversely, which team when they get that free defender can bring the opposing QB down? Ben Roethlisberger is not only mobile, he is big and strong. He can throw with defenders draping off of him. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, is quicker a foot than Roethlisberger and can avoid defenders. 

 
2. Rushing

The Steelers run defense is ranked number one in the NFL. The Packers rushing offense is ranked 24th. This is a clear advantage for the Steelers. How will the Packers be able to run the ball? I believe their best chance will be to spread the Steelers out to make them defend the pass first, then come back with the run second. In other words, set up the run with the pass.

 
Three matchups of note (Green Bay offense vs. Pittsburgh defense)

 
1. Green Bay Wide Receivers vs. Pittsburgh CB's

The Packers have a decided edge here. The two things the Steelers must do to negate this edge is a.) jam the receivers off the line to disrupt their timing on their routes in their rhythm passing game and b.) do a good job tackling when Green Bay’s wideouts catch the ball. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson are all fantastic at running after the catch.

 
2. Green Bay's OT’s vs. Pittsburgh’s OLB’s

This is an edge for Pittsburgh. Most defenses only have one good pass-rusher. Pittsburgh has two in James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Green Bay has to either make sure they help their OT's in some way (likely with a RB chipping or a TE staying in to block). The Packers cannot let the Steeler OLB's go one on one against Chad Clifton, Bryan Bulaga, backup T.J. Lang or one of their backs.

 
3. Green Bay’s center Scott Wells vs. Pittsburgh’s NT Casey Hampton

This is an advantage for Pittsburgh in terms of size and strength. If the Packers can't find a way to control Hampton by helping Wells or devise a running scheme to take advantage of Hampton's tendency to over-pursue (such as having the RB cut back against the grain in the opposite direction of Hampton's initial movement), they will struggle to run the ball.

 
Three matchups of note (Green Bay defense vs. Pittsburgh offense)


1. Green Bay’s NT B.J. Raji vs. Pittsburgh’s C (Maurkice Pouncey or Doug Legursky)

Raji will have a decided edge over whoever Pittsburgh plays at OC (Pro Bowl rookie Maurkice Pouncey hopes to play on his bad ankle; third-year pro Doug Legursky is the backup). It is the same principle that Green Bay faces in running the ball against Casey Hampton: you need a plan to negate the edge that the opposing NT has over your C. B. Raji (US Presswire)

2. Green Bay’s nickel defense vs. Pittsburgh’s run offense

Green Bay will line up in their nickel defense on running downs and dare teams to run the ball. (Often times, they have just two defensive linemen in these packages.) If the Packers do this, the Steelers have to take advantage and run the ball effectively.

3. Green Bay’s OLB Clay Mathews vs. Pittsburgh OT's (LT Jonathan Scott, RT Flozell Adams)

Both OT's for Pittsburgh, Scott and Adams, are backup players. Mathews, like James Harrison, is one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL. Mathews has to win his matchups against the Steelers tackles. The Packers do a good job moving him around to get him into favorable matchups. Can the Steelers figure this out and find a way to block him? 
 

Beyond the statistics and matchups: two more things to watch  

1. Will Green Bay employ a strategy similar to New England's plan against the Steeler defense? The Patriots spread the Steeler defense out and had a lot of success passing the ball. I think that is the best plan to beat the Steeler defense – and I think the Packers have the ideal personnel to execute that plan.

 
2. Will the Steelers try to run the ball to the outside early in the game to make those big Packer defensive linemen run to the ball? The hope here is that doing so will make those D-linemen tire and wear down as the game goes along. Fatigued defensive linemen, of course, are less effective against both the run and pass later in the game.

 
Prediction
 
This is a very even game, but I give the edge to the Steelers because of the slight edge at QB and their greater big game experience. I think the difference in the game will be Roethlisberger making more plays against the pass-rush than Rodgers. 




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Comments
dsfjwerw
Since: Dec 2, 2011
Posted on: January 5, 2012 3:42 pm
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jhfgdters
Since: Dec 2, 2011
Posted on: December 9, 2011 9:13 am
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Since: Oct 13, 2007
Posted on: January 26, 2011 11:55 am
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers

Footballguy44 - I'd give your post 10 stars if I could.  You hit it on the head!  Also, as you go on in life, you must heed thy advice: 

Floss daily, double check drive thru orders, and whatever direction Casserly goes on anything, pick the opposite the very next millisecond you can!




Since: Dec 9, 2010
Posted on: January 25, 2011 12:09 pm
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers

First of all tired of all the Ben is a rapist thing. If you don't like him then you don't like him. I agree both teams are fairly equal but have to give the edge to experience here. Look at the last interception by Green Bay against Chicago. A Vet like Polamalu would have grabbed the ball and gone down to preserve the game. GB went and tried to run it back for a score fumbled and was lucky enough to get the recovered by another pack defender. Mistakes like that are what will give Pitt the edge. The QBS are equal yes Big Ben has the experience but I think Rogers is a natural leader who can take a pressure situation and keep cool. Receivers on both sides of the ball are well experienced with Driver and Jennings for GB and Ward and Randle El for Pitt. The youth movement in receiving is where I would give the edge to Pitt on ly because everyone knows Wallace has speed but Sanders and Brown have been relatively unknown but Big Ben has been using them when needed and they have been coming up big.
Pitt 38 GB 35 in OT



Since: Aug 31, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2011 11:47 am
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers

Rodgers is the better QB, otherwise I agree with most of the rest of Casserly's matchup eval.  One thing he did not bring up is special teams.  While the Packers coverage units have not been all that good this year, Masthay has been great at taking away the PR's the last few games and I think the Packers will win the field position battle. 

Someo comments below are way off...the Packers have much better receivers, and NE's line is not any better than GB's.  For both teams in this game, I think the outside rushers will have an advantage, it will just be a matter of whether GB can shut down the Stellers running game enough and still cover one on one with their WR's (I think they can, but I am obviously biased).  On the other side, the question is whether the Pit secondary can cover the GB WR's good enough (I don't think they can, but again, I am biased).

This will be a close game that I think will come down to a turnover or two, and I see the Packers winning that battle.  27-23 GB.



Since: Nov 3, 2007
Posted on: January 25, 2011 11:07 am
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers


So you are saying the rest will either help or hurt the Packers? How do you go out on a limb like that?

Casserly is terrible. He's a great football mind, but just terrible to listen to. He's the Phila Eagles preseason TV color guy and says the same captain obvious crap the whole game. He explains how every play is designed to work as if he was speaking to a room full of house wives. I've seen the screen pass run a thousand times Charlie, I don't need you to explain to me how to run a screen play.



Since: Sep 11, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2011 8:29 am
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers

How does Green Bay have the edge cause they use the same defense as pitt..Wouldnt that make it even since they both run the same d? and both DC worked with eachother??....stupid article


LOL I thought the same thing.... except      LeBeau > Capers so Pgb should have the edge..... IMO



Since: Sep 29, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2011 7:34 am
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers

So you are saying the rest will either help or hurt the Packers? How do you go out on a limb like that? 



Since: Dec 8, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2011 6:27 am
 

MATCHUPS

The edge at each position:
QB:  PittsburghRB:  PittsburghWR:  EvenOL:  Green BayDL:  EvenLinebackers:  PittsburghCB:  Green BayS:  PittsburghST:  Green BayIntangibles:  Pittsburgh
Steelers 30  -  Green Bay 27

For most, if not all of the Packers, it will take the better part of the 1st quarter and possible into the 2nd quarter to settle into this game.  The stage is so big with obviously so much at stake.  Rodgers is talented, but he is human.  Every player, especially the QB's who have played in the Super Bowl will tell you they are scared to death at the start of the game.  It takes a few series, minimum, to work it out and realize it's just a football game.   Roethlisberger has been to two Super Bowls and that cannot be understated.   Also, 12 other starters have started in the Super Bowl.  They are veterans and veteran Super Bowlers. Big Ben and the big game experience is the advantage in this game.  



Since: Mar 10, 2009
Posted on: January 25, 2011 5:22 am
 

Early look at Super Bowl XLV Packers vs. Steelers



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