Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
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A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

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Comments

Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 23, 2012 5:16 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Well, now at least we don't have to hear any more crap from the SF/BAL crowd that you need a top Def. to win championships.  What you actually need is for your offense to not suck/choke. 



Since: Sep 7, 2009
Posted on: January 23, 2012 3:10 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

...And the 49'ers fans go silent into the night...soft indeed.



Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 22, 2012 6:23 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

OK, BYTEME time to come on out and offer humble supplication.  So much for not beating +500 teams. 



Since: Apr 30, 2007
Posted on: January 19, 2012 1:25 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Hey Brian8ball, you must be jealous, because isn't this the Jets Superbowl? The AFC title game?


brian8ball
Since: Aug 3, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 8:29 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator



brian8ball
Since: Aug 3, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 8:25 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Oct 2, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 3:58 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews


And you keep thinking the Ravens are only Ray Rice, and you will find out how fast Torey Smith is when he goes flying, and I am telling you, you have no one able to guard him on a deep fly pattern for 7.

Uh, yeah Byte Me ?? Torrey Smith was held to 3 catches or less in 10 of the Ravens 17 games this year, including the Wild Card game against the Texans. And he had less than 40 yards in 9 games and less than 50 yards in one other game, including a great effort by Smith in the Wild Card game last week( one catch for 9 yards).

Yeah, the Patriots D is really worried about him huh ?



Since: May 26, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 2:52 pm
This comment has been removed.

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Since: Jan 5, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 2:45 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Dude.... God is watering down the field. It will be an honest to goodness smash mouth football game.... Turnovers included...... The only thing that will make a difference will be us the fans.... and were going to bring  it..... Keep underestimating the 9ers. No respect ...... Its all good. Makes my team play harder and with more emotion.  The championship flag will fly high in san fran.

I'll laugh my @$$ off if the giants win.



Since: Jan 10, 2012
Posted on: January 18, 2012 2:32 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Dude.... God is watering down the field. It will be an honest to goodness smash mouth football game.... Turnovers included...... The only thing that will make a difference will be us the fans.... and were going to bring  it..... Keep underestimating the 9ers. No respect ...... Its all good. Makes my team play harder and with more emotion.  The championship flag will fly high in san fran.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com