Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
 
A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

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Comments

Since: Sep 30, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 1:35 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

and sorry to break the bad news to Baltimore fans but...   Flacco (much like Matt Ryan) will never be elite QBs because he holds on to the ball too long due to the fact that he throws only to open WRs...   to win in playoffs against good pash rushing, a QB needs to be able to make throws to covered WRs, and often way before they get open (many times before the WR even makes the cut on the route).   and i think 2009 was a fluke for Baltimore and unless the defense becomes the 2001 Ravens (which IS the best defense OF ALL TIME)
it'll be Giants and NE in SB



Since: Sep 30, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 1:31 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

have a hunch this game will be a breeze for Eli in SF.  i remember my first time driving on Route 9 (or whatever is by East Rutherford)...  the car was shaking so much and so loud, i thought we were in the middle of a tornado.  then i was told by NJ passengers that it's THAT windy all the time here (you can ask anyone from Northern NJ just how windy, especially how much swirling wind there is)




Since: Sep 30, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 1:28 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Eli's probably glad to be playing in SF, rather than the swirlingly windy Giants stadium.  for years, i've always told everyone that Giants are better off playing on road in playoffs due to the lack of swirling wind (ask any QB, cold/rain/snow or swirling wind, they'll ALL hate the wind the most) like we have in East Rutherford.  especially considering the fact that Eli (much like Brees/Rodgers) is a passer that relies on getting rid of the ball early (and not throwing harder than necessary) with anticipation of where the WR will be (where as someone who bullets the ball like Rothlisberger/Vick, may not matter as much as it would for Brees/Eli)




Since: Aug 20, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 12:47 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Away games are tough enough.......away games in a playoff scenario. San Francisco will be very loud!!!! Go Niners!!!!!!!!


Oddly enough, Green Bay was pretty loud, and the weather was cold.  The Giants did okay there, I think..  

Unless the 49ers decide to water down the field again like they did in 1994, I dont think the home field advantage will be what you think it will.



Since: Jan 18, 2008
Posted on: January 18, 2012 12:21 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

tcp63
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
You don't want to reveal that info because the gambling circuit needs to make a boat load of money hyping up the Ravens, and there dominant defense along with the crappy Pats defense that finished 31st in the league.



Since: Oct 31, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 12:19 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

TDKING,
you were home in 09 and 10 how did that work out.And I don't care who you say should have been a PLAYOFF team of all the teams you named only Denver made the Playoffs and they were a joke.

N.E. has not faced a team like the 3 teams remaining in the Playoffs,and in case you have not noticed all Flacco does is win in the Playoffs.Like I said when Welker gets hit in the Mouth or when Brady is running for his life all day we will see what happens.

And are you really comparing the Bronco's defense to the Ravens D.And ray Rice to these other R.B'S
Um...the Pats played the NYG and lost....close at the end.

Also, what do 09 and 10 have to do with this season?

All Flacco does is win in the playoffs?  He must have 3 superbowl rings already then.....

The Ravens are much better than Denver's D....but Denvers d is still pretty good. 



Since: Aug 28, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 12:10 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

all the talk about the Pats have not faced a D like this all year is probably right, but on the flip side, the Ravens have not faced a O like this all year either, the closest thing they faced was San Diego and we all know how that work out.



Since: Aug 28, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:39 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

brian, i am glad you finally admit that the JETS suck, because we have not beat a good team all year but we beat the JETS twice.


brian8ball
Since: Aug 3, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:25 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Oct 10, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:22 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Good job at beating teams that were favored to go to the playoffs. Welcome to REAL playoff football. Aaron Hernandez won't be able to run the ball against the ravens defense. No wait, have him rush the ball. The first time Ray Lewis gets a shot on him. That will be the end. Have the stretcher ready. Ha Ha!!!!


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