Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
 
A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, Like Us on Facebook, subscribe to our NFL newsletter, and while you're add it, add our RSS Feed.
Comments

Since: Oct 10, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:19 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

The Patriots and Ravens will slug it out.They always do. The key matchup will be the safeties of baltimore vs. the tight ends of gronkowski/hernandez. I think it is funny how every game the analysts pick the away team against the niners at home. Well I think it will be a lot closer game than you think Will Brinson. Maybe you should watch more football. Away games are tough enough.......away games in a playoff scenario. San Francisco will be very loud!!!! Go Niners!!!!!!!!



Since: Oct 31, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:16 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Brian 8 Ball
 THE PATSIES ARE 1 AND 2 AGAINST TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS.

THEY CAN NOT CHEAT IN THE SUPER BOWL SO THERE IS NO WAY THEY CAN WIN

THE RAVENS,GIANTS AND 49ERS HAVE A DEFENSE NOT LIKE THE BRONCO'S

THE PATS HAD ONE OF THE EASIEST SCHEDULE AND  BEAT UP ON A BAD TEAM LAST WEEK.

BELICHEAT AND TAMMY BRADY WILL ALWAYS BE KNOWN AS THE TEAM WHO CAN ONLY WIN A S.B WHEN THEY CHEAT


You MUST be HIGH.
PATS beat everyone on their schedule and went 13-3 in the NFL
We lost 2 games in which we should have won with a defense just learning the system.

We beat how many teams that were favorded to go to the playoffs this year ?
Dallas
Philly
San Diego
JETSTWICE- who werent they guaranteed to go to the SUPERBOWL
DENVER- Division winner- 2 X
KC
OAKLAND both one game away from winning division to go to playoffs

Its not about all these games anyways- its about the next one and lets just say the Patriots score quickly on Sunday
do you think Flacco is gonna keep them in the game. STATS 4 for 12 56 yards in ENTIRE first half Sunday.


NOW lets look at what the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens defense have in common- good pass rush- our OLINE handled
Premier shut down CB- Baltimore doesnt ahve but certainly Champ Bailey is 
Strong LB play - Denver has 2 strong LB and Baltimore has 2 but how much does Ray Ray have in the tank ?
we put Junior Seau out there in 2007 and the Giants gassed him... not this time with Mayo

What about Ray Rice- we have shut down every running back when needed to all year we were not the 31st worst defense in the league that was passing yardage and how have we looked the last 5 weeks--- take a gander and how much was in junk time when TFB and the O had a huge lead and teams just dropped back and threw it around while we were in zone ?

the last time- last time  blah blah blah it was 2009
we had Welker hurt and our Offense changed with 5 days before the Baltimore game
No TOUCHDOWN TWINS with AHERNANDEZ or GRONK
and Randy Moss was half assing it out on th eoutside with no Deion Branch and Edelman was a rookie

we have weapons who will be in abundance and we are on our homefield this week- not even going to talk about the Superbowl
its AFC Championship time then we can talk Superbowl but i think we have miss matches galore and you can say whatever you want
about cheating etc.. its just the only stupid ass thing you can think to say- it had no hand in victories and your coach was the guy
in charge of it happening in NE and is a RAT-- where is he now ? Ball boying it ? You fans copped him the Mangenious-- ha ha
 



Since: Aug 22, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:07 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Last time I checked the Giants beat NE in Foxboro.  But one game at a time, lets just get by SF this week. 


brian8ball
Since: Aug 3, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:07 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Jun 25, 2009
Posted on: January 18, 2012 11:02 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

THE PATSIES ARE 1 AND 2 AGAINST TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS.

THEY CAN NOT CHEAT IN THE SUPER BOWL SO THERE IS NO WAY THEY CAN WIN

THE RAVENS,GIANTS AND 49ERS HAVE A DEFENSE NOT LIKE THE BRONCO'S

THE PATS HAD ONE OF THE EASIEST SCHEDULE AND  BEAT UP ON A BAD TEAM LAST WEEK.

BELICHEAT AND TAMMY BRADY WILL ALWAYS BE KNOWN AS THE TEAM WHO CAN ONLY WIN A S.B WHEN THEY CHEAT

Based on the stupid things you say, I'm starting to think you're just a highschool drop out Brian living in mom's basement.

The Patriots are an amazing team that won a tremendous amount of games after they got "caught" doing something EVERY team does in the NFL, the only difference is where the Pats were videotaping from.  

The Jets schedule was similar yet they won a few less games..

They have a couple more sb's then the Jets.

Go to bed Brian. 


brian8ball
Since: Aug 3, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 10:15 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Apr 7, 2010
Posted on: January 18, 2012 9:48 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

People are still doing the all-Caps thing?  It's 2012 for Christ's sake.


brian8ball
Since: Aug 3, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 9:40 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Jan 18, 2012
Posted on: January 18, 2012 9:34 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Thank you sir for being honest to yourself and everybody else. I'm a die hard ravens fan. I support my team no matter what, but I'm also a true realist. These Patriots are a force to be reckoned with but I see our secondary improving greatly and making the essential interceptions at cornerback. Ray Lewis was kind of rusty last week, but I see him coming up big vs. the Pats. Our front 7 couldn't get any pressure on the rookie Yates and he still made rookie mistakes... That will not happen with Tom Brady. If we can't get any pressure or sacks we will lose this game no doubt. The Pats will no doubt try to throw dinky passes on the Ravens zone coverages but Baltimore loves to hit and be physical across the middle. The Patriots real break will be Tom Brady's ability to throw it to Gronkowski in clutch situations. If the Ravens pick up on him and get some knock downs or INTs, I like our chances. But with T. Brady throwing tight spirals unpressures, that's a very big "IF".




Since: Aug 20, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 9:32 am
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

ALLLLL Year I have been coming on here saying "No one is getting by New England...NO ONE!!" and none of you idiots would listen! You would whine how good your teams were ad IGNORE my statements, Well guess what...."HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES!!??" I was RIGHT.....NO ONE IS GETTING BY NEW ENGLAND as I have said since Week 1! And you were ALL ^%$$# wrong!


Thats what all of the Pats fans said in 2007, too.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com