Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, Like Us on Facebook, subscribe to our NFL newsletter, and while you're add it, add our RSS Feed.

Since: Nov 27, 2010
Posted on: January 18, 2012 9:31 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Your argument sounds exactly what could be said about San Fran, minus the elite QB of course (A. Smith is not elite and I think we all know that).  San Fran has a dominant O-line, a better bruising back in Gore, playmakers Crabtree and Davis, and a better all around defense.  Hakeem Nicks won't be bouncing off 49er defenders on his way to 60 yard TD grabs or catching halftime hail marry tosses.  The ball control 49ers will pound out a tough home victory......and then Harbaugh will either backslap or dirty sanchez Coughlin.

Since: Nov 27, 2010
Posted on: January 18, 2012 9:23 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

The Super Bowl will be a matchup of New England vs San Francisco.  The Pats will edge the Ravens by 7 and the 49ers will win by 4 again vs NYG.  No one is giving the 49ers much of a chance.  Vegas has them as the favorites, therefore I have a hunch they will win and cover the small spread.  The Ravens D will keep them in the game, but Joe Flacco won't do enough to make them win.

Since: Nov 14, 2008
Posted on: January 18, 2012 8:59 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

The Giants just seem like the best team at the moment. Great QB, O-line giving him tons of time, hot wideouts in Nicks and Cruz, 2 bruising running backs, and a stout D-line with Osi back. LB's and secondary aren't great but aren't bad either.

Since: Jun 1, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 8:31 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

The Ravens will beat them this weekend, keeping the Patriots record against winning teams naught.

Since: Jul 7, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 8:15 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

ALLLLL Year I have been coming on here saying "No one is getting by New England...NO ONE!!" and none of you idiots would listen! You would whine how good your teams were ad IGNORE my statements, Well guess what...."HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES!!??" I was RIGHT.....NO ONE IS GETTING BY NEW ENGLAND as I have said since Week 1! And you were ALL ^%$$# wrong!

Since: Nov 15, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 7:38 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

wdZoro...... Is that sour grapes i'm hearing??? Your pathetic Steelers couldn't beat Denver (ha,ha,ha) Or the Ravens for that matter. Maybe you should watch golf on Sunday, so it doesn't pain you too much to watch the elite of the AFC play.

Since: Nov 15, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 7:26 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

I love how these Giant fans think they can't be beat. This is a team that lost to the Redskins TWICE.Eli Manning will never survive the 49'rs Defense. And pansy ass Brady is already crapping his pants thinking about the Ravens D.

Since: Jan 26, 2010
Posted on: January 18, 2012 3:28 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

All right I'll put my 2-cents in.Both the Pats and the Giants are on a roll. The Niners are a scary bunch beause Veron Davis and Al Gore can both be beasts. Of course Davis is the hot commodity who can't be covered one-one what the hell were the Saints thinking? Seans smarter than that so somebody must have really screwed up or on pain killers thinking his guys were a prototype of Super Man in his prime. I know, bad joke,. Anyway not to waste anymore of your time. Brady's the man I don't care what anybody says. He's focused and won't take know for an answer. Here where the problem lies. I'd rather have the Pats win because I'm just not fond of the other 3...BUT I've seen what happens when Brady's offensive line can't keep the bad guys out he has to hurry his throws and the timing is off and it just doesn't jell and hit on all cylinders. Hence the Giants and the Niners defense could spoil the boys coming out of Foxboro. I still want the Pats but as we all know defence wins champions ( My God that get's preached so much it's absolutey redundant ). But it's true. Good luck Tom I'm pulling for ya but I've seen what happens when they get to you early and often. Eli will carve their defense to pieces and the Pats couldn't cover those big receivers Manningham, Cruz and Hicks. Giants by 10. We'll see if my head is in my azz or not. Everybody enjoy the show! It showed be a good one. Oh ya, forgot to mention now that Alex Smith has regained his confidents in his old days at Utah he could be a scary bastard againts the Pats "D". I apologize for taking so much of your guy's time but I just call it the way I see it. Nonetheless hope your team wins take care.

Since: Oct 10, 2006
Posted on: January 18, 2012 2:09 am

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Not sure how you see them playing the best?  Niners and Patriots both played well and both finished out the season with wins.  Giants aren't definitely playing the best... they are playing well, not necessarily better than the other two named.

Since: Dec 29, 2011
Posted on: January 18, 2012 2:05 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or