Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
 
A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

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Comments

Since: Dec 30, 2008
Posted on: January 17, 2012 8:53 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews


 Everyone keeps talking about Brady,like he dominates the Ravens. Lets look at the numbers!

  Last three games:


  Oct. 4 2009

Brady     
  attempts 21 for 32   258 yds    1 td   0 int

Facco     
  attempts 27 for 47   264 yds    2 td   1 int

  Oct. 17 2010

Brady      attempts 27 for 44    292 yds    1 td   2 int

Flacco     attempts  27 for 35   285 yds    2 td   0 int

  Jan. 10 2010

Brady     attempts 23 for 42    154 yds   2 td   3 int

Flacco    attempts  4 for 10      34 yds    0 td   1 int 
(Flacco didn't need to throww because Ravens dominated on the ground)


Summary:

  Brady   704 yds  avg. yds. per game  234.6    4 td    5 int

  Flacco  583 yds  avg. yds per game   194.3     4 td   2 int
      
;   
      
;      ( Take out game where Flacco didn't need to throw and his avg. yds per game was 274 yds.)


Where's this domination that all the Pat fans are talking about?




Since: Sep 28, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 8:25 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

You haven't won a SB since Bilichick got caught cheating and you had a defense.



Since: May 17, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 8:25 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Are Pitta and Dickson an ESPN radio sow on the weekend or something??? I I have never heard of them then they are NOT as good as Gronk and Hernandez. Pats 37 - Ravens 13



Since: May 17, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 8:22 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

You haven't won a Superbowl since 2000, when Lewis was YOUNG and the defense was great. Now slow and old, you get to wear the hat of the Pats defense of 2007 when everyone said Bruschi, Vrabel, and Harrison were too old to beat anyone for a title. Welcome to the circle of life, Raven fans. Pats 37 - Raven 13.



Since: Sep 28, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 8:18 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Byte me, David Carr doesn't play for the Ravens, I believe you meant David Reed,  Funny though, Flacco reminds me of Carr.  Both have a big arm and can make all the throws but get flustered when pressured.  They kinda look alike too.




Since: Jan 15, 2008
Posted on: January 17, 2012 8:14 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

The Bodymore Ravens are done this week.  And what a pleasure it will be to watch.  



Since: Sep 6, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 7:27 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Any given Sunday....
The teams that's favored is the one where sheeple are putting their money.  The lines move, but it really has no impact whatsoever on the outcome of a game.  With that aside, Tom Brady and the Pats can light up a scoreboard.  They can fall behind by 3 TDs and still light up a scoreboard.  But the Ravens aren't just showing up to play the Patriot offense.  They're coming to play the Patriots.  And if the Ravens run the ball effectively, this game will be close.  The key cog will be Vonte Leach blocking for Ray Rice.  The Ravens are going to give the Patriots a steady diet of Ray Rice. And with no tomorrow, they can pull just about anything out of the playbook.  Can Flacco use play action to pass on one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL?  Probably.  He's done pretty well against some of the top defenses.  Can the Ravens mess up Tom Brady's hair?  Probably.  But Brady will carve you up if he has time.   This will be an interesting game to watch.



Since: Nov 18, 2008
Posted on: January 17, 2012 7:17 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Hey Byte -  TB saw a strong yet depleted defense in the Giants already this year.  Seems like the Giants have some horses (and confidence) back since then.  Good luck Sunday.

Go Giants



Since: Oct 24, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 7:08 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Byte Me says:

 I will be here not Monday morning but at 6:30 PM sunday night....


 If, and that is an IF for some reason, and I highly doubt it, that the Pats win I will be here but I am telling all you Patsie fans,  (btw, no disrespect, but I like the patsie name.) that brady has not seen and will not see a def like the Ravens all year. 

 
Just to all you patsie fans, make sure you are here at 6:30 pm on Sunday saying, damn I wish we had some fast running backs that can outrun their db's and safties....  They may have size in Gronk and Hernandez, but you are not going deep on the ravens.  Just doesnt happen.


And you keep thinking the Ravens are only Ray Rice, and you will find out how fast Torey Smith is when he goes flying, and I am telling you, you have no one able to guard him on a deep fly pattern for 7.


Oh yeah, we may not have the like of Gronk and Hernandez, however Pitta and Dickson are not slouch, you will have to guard 4 -5 guys and I just dont see in that def of yours.   


      
;    




Since: Nov 14, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 6:50 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

You're right. Look, they got to pound the Jets twice, and it didn't get much easier than that!


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