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Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
 
A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

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Comments

Since: Jan 10, 2012
Posted on: January 17, 2012 6:46 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Has anyone wondered how a team that wins 12-13-14 games a year consistently has one of the weaker schedules every year.  Hey NFL, I thought your 'scheduling system' was designed to prevent that sort of thing... I guess not when it comes to the Patsies.  Note to all you Patsie fans--be prepared to watch Marcia Brady crying and whining all game as the Ravens pop him in the mouth and put him on his can all game.



Since: Jan 10, 2012
Posted on: January 17, 2012 6:41 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

The writer of this article and the rest of the media need to calm down. The Patsies have yet to beat a team this year that finished with a winning record.  That'a right.  The closet are the Jets (8-8), and the Broncos (9-9).  They are nothing but bullies that prey on weaker teams, delighting in abusing them.  Look it up.  This weekend, the Ravens will remind everyone that DEFENSE wins deep into the playoffs.  This year, as well as last year, the Patsies are nothing but a media creation.  This is not the Patsies of old.  They are not even the NFL's version of the Yankees.  



Since: Aug 13, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 5:42 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

San Diego is San Diego, you dont know what you get with them, and the Raven's ran up against river's when he was on, no excuses we lost

Not that it matters come sunday because the NFL is all about matchups but the Chargers suck and they didnt just beat you they smoked you.

All 4 of those losses on the road are bad if you consider the Ravens a contender, The ravens are are a mediocre team on the road. Reed and Lewis should go buy a box opf depends before the game because there going to need it when the Pats jump out ahead quick.



Since: Oct 2, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 5:35 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

I'm a Patriots fan. I believe(and I hope I'm wrong) that the Ravens will win a close game, say 23-20.

Byte Me and Mr. Noodle, if the Pats do win, I hope you have the nads to come back and take your medicine. I will be here congratulating Baltimore should they win.

Joe Flacco is not a QB who strikes fear into the heart of most defenses. But Ray Rice worries me. The Texans limited him to 60 yards on 21 carries. He may be ready for a breakout game.

The Ravens TEs worry me a bit too. Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta have made some key catches for 1st downs when the Ravens needed them.

But the Ravens D, as good as it is, will have trouble with Brady throwing to Welker, Branch, Gronk and Hernandez. You can't cover them all. The Pats O-line protects well too. It won't be that easy for the mouths, Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs. If you do manage to cover some of those mentioned above, the tandem of Benjarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will make an impact, whether you believe it or not.

If the Pats D plays half as well as they did against the Broncos, they can win it. But I respect the Ravens enough to believe they win 23-20. And again, I hope I'm wrong.

@Byte Me: Be careful what you beg and wish for. You may get it. If you do, you won't like it.





Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 5:01 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Not a joke of a stat.  You don't play any team enough to affect their ability to be a top offense.  Either way, gonna be a good game and looing forward to it.  Raven are good.  Patriots are good.  I'm a Pat's fan so naturally I think they are the better team.  Solid cases to be made for both squads, I just thin the Pats match up well with the Ravens and will probably pull it out.



Since: Oct 24, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:52 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Hmmmm  Tenn was 9-7 not a bad team......  the only terrible loss the Ravens had was vs Jacksonville. 

David Carr's two fumbles on kickoffs inside our own 10 cost us the hawk's game, hmmm  wonder why he is IR'd and playing at Seattle is no gimme, check out who the hawk's beat in Seattle.

San Diego is San Diego, you dont know what you get with them, and the Raven's ran up against river's when he was on, no excuses we lost.

And you wanna know why the raven's were 0-1 against top offenses, HMMM because no can move the ball on us or score and you can't be in the top if you can move the ball or score, so against top offenses is a joke of a STAT....

 

 




Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:41 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Rather lose to PIT and NYG than JAX, TEN, SEA and SD. 



Since: Dec 16, 2007
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:39 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Couldn't agree more. If I'm not mistaken the mighty Pats have yet to beat a team with a winning record. 2 of there loses were to the G-men and the Steelers and lets not forget the Bills. Funny huh. Go Ravens



Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:37 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Baltimore on the road....  4-4.  Pats only beat .500 or worse teams.  Good thing for the Pats, the Ravens are .500 on the road



Since: Oct 24, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:28 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Wow, I can not believe I am getting ready to agree with a Black and Gold fan....

These patsie fans, think they have see a def like they are about to see against the Ravens, and they think the Raven's are still this team that can not put up 31 points a game. 

If the pats played the Ravens schedule, or the Steelers schedule at best they would be 8-8 this year, maybe 9-7.  

Let them play Baltimore 2 or Steelers 2 times hell even Cinn and cleveland 2 times and see how many division titles they would have.

I agree so much, i just don't understand how these article keep poping up every year with the Pats favorite.

And yes print off all these on Monday, and just remember to say, "damn that byte me was right with all his comments"



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com