Blog Entry

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Posted on: January 17, 2012 11:07 am
 
A rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl is almost likely at this point. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

Earlier this month we took a look at the odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, just before the playoffs began. If you bet on the 49ers (+1200), you're feeling pretty good about life. If you bet on the Packers (+16), well, not so much.

The odds have been recalibrated in advance of the AFC and NFC Championship Games so let's take a look at who's likely (and unlikely) to win the Super Bowl. Plus: hypothetical Super Bowl matchups! All odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl

Team: New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +120
Value of Bet: 4
What Has to Happen: The Pats defense has to show up for at least one more game and Tom Brady needs to keep being the angry, destructive cyborg that he was in the first half against the Broncos. The Patriots are a shockingly high favorite here given that they've got to win two games like everyone else, and given that the Ravens stomped their faces the last time Baltimore came to New England.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Under on the longest touchdown of the game at 47.5. Both the Ravens and the Patriots give up long plays, but if you look at each of their last five games, most shots have been taken from 40 yards in. Only Torrey Smith represents a true "deep threat" on either team.

Team: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 2
What Has to Happen: Alex Smith keeps getting his Joe Montana on. The defense has to play well, of course, but roughing up the Giants is different than roughing up the Saints; New Orleans is a finesse team (no offense to Drew Brees and Sean Payton). Once Pierre Thomas was knocked out, they struggled to punch the 49ers in the mouth. The Giants won't have the same problem and are infinitely tougher. Smith successfully orchestrating the offense gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Super Bowl UNDER at 50. You think 50 points are getting scored if we get 49ers vs. Ravens? It's not even a total backfire if the Giants make it: only once since 2005 (last year, in fact) has the Super Bowl gone over 50 points total.

Team: New York Giants
Super Bowl Odds: +325
Value of Bet: 3
What Has to Happen: The secondary needs to keep shutting folks down; they've done a tremendous job improving over the past four weeks or so. Also, Gregg Doyel pointed out that the Giants wanted to get physical with Jermichael Finley during the Packers game. They will need to do something similar with Vernon Davis (and then possibly Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez) if they plan on winning the Super Bowl. At the very least, they shouldn't leave Vernon in one-on-one coverage.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: Giants +4.5 versus Patriots in a hypothetical Super Bowl. Yes, you can bet on this. Crazy right? Already, no one believes in the Giants. Good times! (All future SB matchups listed below.

Team: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +600
Value of Bet: 1
What Has to Happen: Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron have to get it together for two games and do their jobs more efficiently. Were it not for Jacoby Jones gifting the Ravens a touchdown on Sunday, Flacco might be the goat for a huge upset right now, and Cameron throwing with two minutes remaining and Houston trying to use their timeouts gave the Texans an additional possession. Do that against, say, Brady and Eli, and it'll burn you.
Fun Prop to Play This Weekend: The under on Ray Rice's rushing attempts. I don't even know what it is but I know Cameron will find a way to go under regardless.

Hypothetical Super Bowl Matchups
Patriots (-6.5) vs. 49ers: That's not a surprising line considering how strong the Patriots looked and it would generate a lot of action on each side of the ball. However, if the 49ers look good in taking down the Giants, I'd think this would open up closer to 3 than 7.

Patriots (-4.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would be somewhat surprising underdogs considering their strong run but remember that last time they were 12.5-point dogs (!) against the Patriots. So maybe this more reasonable. Best guess: the Giants would get a LOT of action and push this line down.

Ravens (-2) vs. 49ers: A two-point line means "We have no real idea, but I guess we like the Ravens." The over/under isn't listed but you best believe it's lower than the current line of 50. Defensive matchups like this put a lot of the weight on Flacco and Smith which is why no one knows.

Giants (-1) vs. Ravens: Again, no one knows. I'd personally love the Giants in this situation, because as hot as they've been, this line seems destined to climb. Plus, if you've got two really good defenses, don't you want the team with the elite quarterback? (That's not you, Joe Flacco.)

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Comments

Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:26 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

True, though none of the other playoff teams have won an SB in nearly as long, Giants being the most recent.  That said, Pats have been a playoff team more often over the past 10 years than any of the others.  Chec out an earlier post.  The playoff teams cum, are 20-5 vs. top D's this year while they are only 10-6 vs. top offense.  Not to mention, in scoring defense, the Pats are middle of the pac at 15 (21.4 PPG), though #3 in scoring offense (32.1 PPG).  That is a +10.7 average scoring differential for the Pats vs. +7 for BAL, +9.5 for SF and -0.4 for NYG.



Since: Sep 10, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:25 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

No need to play the game.  Brady can't be stopped.  Plus Teddy Bruschi is coming out of retirement!




Since: Oct 24, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:19 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

SOMEONE said they don't match up well against the pass? and t/e's of new England, there is a reason the Ravens only give up 180 yards a game against the pass, and only 11 passing tds this year.

Ravens have played some decent T/E's this year and have shut them down, Vernon Davis, Gresham, (notice heath miller never goes across the middle anymore against the ravens)

Keep thinking Brady is gonna shred this def apart, keep thinking he is going to put up 6 tds and 500 yards, because it just won't happen.

 

And big downhill linebackers, you kidding me, you must not watch many Raven's game, to see Ellerbe or McLain or JJ95 drop back in coverage will scare any tightend over the top, yes even Gronk....  he has not seen any linebackers like the Raven's.  Throw that little skinny seam post and see gronk try to hold onto it with one of them blasting him at the time of the catch.

Gronk's worse nightmare is about to happen




Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:14 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

these articles are almost laughable.  every year the media pumps up the patriots and how great they are.  every year we here about them going to the superbowl..  i dont get it,  they havent won a superbowl, in nearly 8 yrs and this team that they are pumping up so much........ played terrible defense all year, and didnt beat a team with an above .500 winning percentage all season, yet they want to say that they are the superbowl favs.    righhhhttttttttttttttttttttt



Since: Apr 30, 2007
Posted on: January 17, 2012 4:09 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

who the f*** you think you are? The ravens beat the pats 33-14 when you guys still had an actual deep threat and we had greg mattison as our d coordinator.  The ravens beat the steelers twice when they ahd big ben, and we aksi beat them 35-7.  your d sucks s*** and rice is an elite back. why dont you shut your mouth and see what happens on sunday 



I just cut and pasted this and I'll take it out Monday after the actual game. I can't believe you ended with we'll see what happens after talking all that crap before that.. Poor Baltimore fans , second class to Pittsburgh in their divison causing a massive inferiority complex.



Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 3:53 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Damn Maeisen, no one was trashing the Ravens.  You should read the posts.  Giving respect o BAL offense and defense. Pat's fans pointing out stats and match-up related issue that favor their team seems perfectly normal to me.  Ravens fans are doing the same.  Might want to tae your Xanex so you don't go out and punch any babies.



Since: May 2, 2010
Posted on: January 17, 2012 3:44 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Maeisen, why dont you take your own advice.



Since: Jan 17, 2012
Posted on: January 17, 2012 3:41 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

who the f*** you think you are? The ravens beat the pats 33-14 when you guys still had an actual deep threat and we had greg mattison as our d coordinator.  The ravens beat the steelers twice when they ahd big ben, and we aksi beat them 35-7.  your d sucks s*** and rice is an elite back. why dont you shut your mouth and see what happens on sunday.



Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2012 3:36 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Noodle, def not celebrating.  I think BAL offense is underrated and is well suited to play the pats.  Only pointed out that BAL defense isn't as suited to excel against the Pats the same way they do against PIT.  Also, BAL didn't beat a single top 10 offense all season.  They have a tremendous record against top D's, but the only top 10 off they played spanked them (San Diego) and they aren't nearly as scary as Pats offense. Plus, while the pats didn't beat any teams with records better than .500, they also only lost to one non-playoff team, while Baltimore lost to 4 non-playoff teams.  Even though BAL defense is a perfect matchup with the Pats, they are still an absurdly good unit so either way the game is going to be a good one.



Since: Sep 10, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 3:28 pm
 

Super Bowl Odds: Championship Game Previews

Why bother playing the game?  Obviously, the Ravens don't have an "elite" quarterback, so what's the point?  Nevermind the fact that the Patsies haven't beaten a team with a winning record.   And that the Ravens are 7-0 vs playoff teams in 2011/2012.  Oh yeah, the Steelers beat the Pats, but only because they had Big Ben.  And the Ravens are old on defense.  There's no way they can keep up with those big mean tight ends.  Yup, start drinking the celebration juice now Pats fans, you've moved on to the Supebowl!  Congrats! 



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