Blog Entry

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Posted on: January 22, 2012 11:50 pm
Edited on: January 23, 2012 11:30 am
Brady and the Pats are early 3.5-point favorites in Vegas. (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

The Super Bowl matchup is set -- we've got all the best storylines in Sorting the Sunday Pile -- and the Patriots and Giants will square off in a rematch of the epic 2007 Super Bowl.

Championship Weekend Recap

The odds won't be tilted quite as heavily towards the Patriots this time, though, as New England's been installed as "only" a three-point favorite according to R.J. Bell of notes that the Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite.

When the two teams met in 2007, the Patriots closed as 12-point favorites in Vegas, but, of course, ultimately ended up losing straight-up.

Bell notes that the Vegas favorite has won 33 of 45 Super Bowls in NFL history, or 73 percent of the games played.

"Historically, the point-spread is an unmatched predictor of NFL games," Bell notes.

Currently, the over/under for the Super Bowl is a whopping 55.5 points according to Sportsbook, which means Vegas expects to see plenty of scoring from the two teams. That's no surprise given the Eli Manning-Tom Brady matchup and the pair of explosive offenses featured by the two teams.

Speaking of big numbers, Bell projects that over $10 billion -- yes, with a "b" -- will be wagered on this year's Super Bowl.

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Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 26, 2012 4:42 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Three and one-half (3 1/2) seem a little high to me as well as the 55.5. The Giants went into Foxboro this year in October and won 24-20. Different teams, but the last time they played in the Super Bowl, the first team to 17 won. The Giant defensive front is finally healthy and if Baltimore's D line gave Tom Brady problems, what do you think the Giants are going to do. I have don't have a dog in the fight and really respect what Brady has done in his career, but as hard as it is to say, in the words of Deion Sanders, "I believe in Eli" :). If you're afraid of the 3 1/2 and the over/under of 55.5, you can 6 point tease it for -140 with the Giants +9 and under 61. Bet the ranch/trailor gentlemen :)

Since: Jan 9, 2007
Posted on: January 26, 2012 1:25 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Kimber "13 points? YOu think the PAtriots, whose O-line hasta stop, not slow, but STOP, JPP, Osi, Tuck, Kiwinuka, Joseph, Canty, And Tollefsen, is going to beat the Ginats by THIRTEEN POINTS!? LMAO Ummm,, exactly what CBs in NE Uniforms are going to Stop Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham? If the Ginats can handcuff Jennings, Driver, Nelson, Jones, Finley, in GB.. "..... GET ME THE NUMBER OF UR BOOK WHO IS EXCEPTING 13 PNTS. ACTUALLY GIVE ME THE NUMB ERIN 5 DIAYS., I WANT TO LIQUIDATE MY CAR, MY HOUSE, MY DOG AND MY KIDS SO I CAN DOUBLE UP.

Since: Aug 23, 2010
Posted on: January 25, 2012 9:07 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

The Giants have won 5 playoff games in a row.  They are on a roll and are healthy.  The Pats have won 10 in a row and are winning in any form or fashion.  Both defenses are playing better than the regular season and are healthy now.  Game will be won in the trenches.  Who can protect their qb more the Giants or Pats?  The Pats will find a way to slow that pass rush down and take advantage of the linebackers.  The Giants will be able to throw the ball around if Manning has time.  I really think the Pats defense will suprise people and come up big because as well as Manning is playing he still makes bad throws.  He made a couple that the 49ers didn't hold on to that would have changed the game.  I will give the points and take my Pats 35-31.Cool

Since: Nov 27, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2012 5:41 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

@ titandbebe    you are delerious my friend....

FACT:  Atlanta Sucks...until they win something other than a division title, you cant tell me they are a "very good team"

FACT: What is the diff between Packers D and Patriots D...Packers 32 rated D -- Patriots 31 Rated D  hmmmm Best team in NFL...that will be decided in 10 days!

Fact: 49'rs Offense is HORRIBLE

FACT:  you(as in you) can make anything up you want and call it a FACT it seems...

and how are you calling the Patriots the Best Offense in the NFL.... Your FACT just said the Packers were(best team? worst Defense?)

your FACTS are scewed to fit YOUR argument.

Here is an actual FACT:

I love the Patriots and I believe they have a better than good shot at their 4th Superbowl.

The Patriots Pass D scares the crap outa me

The Giants D line worries me.

If the Pats O-line gives Brady time...I love the Patriots chance.

stop being foolish and so full of hate.     



;     &nbs

Since: Mar 17, 2008
Posted on: January 25, 2012 3:41 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Giants were at home vs Atlanta

Since: Oct 4, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2012 1:32 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

Fact: The Pats beat a weak Denver Team.
Fact: The Pats just squeked by a Ravens team that has little to no offense.

Fact: The Giants beat a very good Atlanta team in Atlanta.
Fact: Tha Giants beat the best team in the NFL the Green Bay Packers.
Fact: The Giants beat the best defense in football The 49ers.

FACT: The GIANTS will BEAT the best OFFENSE in the NFL! nu said!

Since: Jan 18, 2008
Posted on: January 25, 2012 1:25 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

They get the odds through computing 1000 probability formulas. The computer program has the Patriots winning 61% of the time with the Patriots scoring around 31 points and the Giants around 27.5.
Some poindexter computer geek must have written the program, but as long as the gambling gurus are making money they will use it. 

Since: Feb 5, 2007
Posted on: January 25, 2012 12:58 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

It has nothing to do with which team is better, it is a "money line" by Vegas and others determined by the betting action on one team or the other

Since: Sep 12, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2012 12:50 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5

I'll never understand Vegas.

I freaking love my Pats, but why are they the favorites?

Wins/losses really have no bearings now.

Do this base this on betting patterns or do they ACTUALLY believe the Pats should be favored?

Makes no sense to me, never has-never will.

Since: Jan 25, 2012
Posted on: January 25, 2012 12:02 pm

Super Bowl XLVI Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5


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