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Blog Entry

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Posted on: January 24, 2012 9:00 am
Edited on: January 24, 2012 11:51 am
 
The uniforms are the same but these two teams most definitely are not. (Getty Images)

By Ryan Wilson

The more things change, the more things … change. The uniforms may be the same but four years later, the Giants and Patriots are different teams who, after 20 weeks, find themselves in a familiar position: about to face off in a Super Bowl. Four years ago, in the fortnight leading up to their first encounter in February 2008, the storylines were some variation of: "New England will absolutely obliterate New York."

Predictable, sure. But in much the same way gravity is predictable. Except that night the Giants had no use for immutable laws of nature. (Evidenced nicely by David Tyree's physics-defying grab that set up the winning touchdown.)


The Patriots' offensive firepower led by Brady and Randy Moss didn't matter. And neither did did the Spygate soap opera which served to galvanize the team earlier in the year and perpetuate the "us vs. them" mentality that gave guys like Rodney Harrison Tony Robbins-like purpose. (Harrison was known almost as much for his reliance on the "no respect for motivational purposes" shtick as he was for his tenacious, sometimes dirty style.)

This time will be different. Or least that's the thinking going in. The head coaches and quarterbacks are the same, but Eli Manning has matured and the Patriots' defense has regressed. The difference in talent between these two clubs that was once measured in miles is now better gauged in yards.

Put differently: it only seems like we've already seen this movie.

So before we take a look ahead, we thought it made sense to first take a look back.

The Rosters

The Giants head to Indianapolis with 16 players (nine starters) from the Super Bowl XLII-winning squad. The Patriots, meanwhile, have just seven players (five starters) remaining. You can view the 2007 rosters for both teams below; the players in red are still with their respective teams.



The takeaway from the list above: only one defensive player from Super Bowl XLII remains on the Patriots' roster. Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel -- all either retired or playing elsewhere -- and just Vince Wilfork, the team's 2004 first-round pick, is left. (Granted, Wilfork saved the best game of his career for last Sunday's AFC Championship matchup against the Ravens, which is timely.)

During the '07 regular season, the Patriots defense ranked 12th in league (fifth against the pass, 21st against the run), according to Football Outsiders. Four years later, and their travails have been well documented (30th overall, 28th pass, 28th run).

The one name that has remained constant: Tom Brady. He doesn't have Randy Moss but he doesn't need him. The offensive may not be as explosive without Moss but it's much more dynamic with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

On the surface, the 2011 Giants don't seem much different from the 2007 version. They won nine games this season (with 30 percent of the personnel from the Super Bowl XL roster), nine in '07; ranked 12th in team efficiency this time around versus 16th four years ago. But the similarities end there because like Brady in New England, Eli Manning has everything to do with the Giants' recent success.

For almost the entire '07 season, Manning was one of the league's most inconsistent quarterbacks. He ranked 38th in total value among NFL QBs, sandwiched between the likes of Brian Griese and Chet Lemon. Now Manning's fifth behind Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Romo and Stafford. That, more than anything else New York has done this season, is the reason they're playing one more game.

In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants had no expectations. In Super Bowl XLVI there will be plenty. And the question goes from "Can this team avoid embarrassing itself in front of a worldwide audience?" to "Can they play up to their potential and win this thing?"

Pregame Hype: A Look Back

Given these two offenses -- one record-breaking, the other aimless for much of the season -- it wasn't surprising that the Giants were getting Washington Generals-type odds to win this game.

Then:
the Patriots opened as 13.5-point favorites, according to Las Vegas. Five weeks before, in Week 17, New England was favored by 13 to beat the Giants in New York. Instead, the Pats needed a fourth-quarter comeback to eke out the 38-35 victory. (Now: the line opened Sunday with New England favored by a more modest 3.5 points.)

Then: AccuScore ran 10,000 simulations of the Giants-Patriots matchup and gave New York a 25 percent chance of winning. Sounds high -- Manning could throw that middle-of-the-field-Hail Mary to Tyree 100 times and Tyree comes down with it once. Tyree, it turns out, has impeccable timing.

Then: Cold Hard Football Facts called it the "mismatch of the century," complete with subheadings breaking down each individual mismatch ("on offense," "at quarterback," etc…).

Football Outsiders was less definitive, writing that "Most likely, the Giants won't pull a shocking upset like the 2001 Patriots, and they won't get blown off the field like the 1985 Patriots. Instead, they'll end up like a third team from New England's Super Bowl past: the 1996 Patriots, a good team outclassed by a great team. … (The 2007) Patriots will probably dispatch the Giants in a similar fashion, completing their historic 19-0 season. Not definitely. Just probably."

Then: CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco was one of the few national voices to pick the Giants. You don't even have to look it up because we've done it for you:


"I like the +11.5," Prisco said. "I think the Giants -- not only will they cover the number, they may win the game. … I think the Giants could definitely win the football game."

Then: Princess the camel (yep, you read that right -- the terrestrial counterpart to Paul the Octopus) also picked the Giants to win.

"I can't explain it, but her predictions, more often than not, are right on the money," said John Bergmann, general manager of Popcorn Park Zoo where Princess has lived since 2004. "I'm hoping she's right this time because I'm a Giants fan."

Turned out, Princess had a thing for the Mannings more so than the Giants; she picked Peyton and the Colts to win the year before. (Then again, maybe she'd seen then-Bears quarterback Rex Grossman play.)

From the ridiculous to the sublime…

Then: Another national columnist driving the Giants' bandwagon: Dr. Z. He admitted that picking New York was an opportunity to right a past wrong, when he picked the Colts to beat the Jets in Super Bowl III even though he had a feeling New York, 19-point underdogs by kickoff, had a chance to pull the upset. Forty years later, Dr. Z wasn't going to make the same mistake. Here's what he wrote on January 22, 2008:

"And gradually it dawned on me, as I toured the (Giants) locker room (after their NFC Championship game win over the Packers), picking up a quote here and there -- there isn't a way to stop Brady and Welker and Moss and Faulk and Maroney ... the whole riotous bunch. A team just has to be tougher, more resilient, more able to sustain high-level pressure on both sides of the ball for a longer period. And I honestly feel that the Giants can do it. Just look at what this improbable team has done so far."

And that's exactly how it played out.

Now: We mentioned above that the Patriots' defense has just one player from the last Super Bowl team. But much like the Giants' offense during the 2007 season, New England's D has come on of late. But will it be enough?

From CBSSports.com's Clark Judge: No team went to a Super Bowl with a defense ranked lower than 25th. Now you have the league's 27th-ranked unit (the Giants) and its 31st-ranked defense (New England), but, just a hunch, defense makes the difference in Indianapolis. It did when these two met in Super Bowl XLII, with the Giants sacking Tom Brady five times and holding the league's highest-scoring offense to 14 points.


The NY Giants and Patriots will face off in the Super Bowl once again. NFL on CBS analyst Solomon Wilcots joins the Tim Brando Show to discuss how the rematch will play out.

Now:
There used to be a time when you were never certain if Good Eli or Bad Eli would show up from one week to the next, one quarter to the next, and sometimes, one play to the next. Manning has transformed into one of the league's most consistent quarterbacks and now he has a chance to double up his older brother on total Super Bowl rings.

From Prisco's most recent column on Eli's evolution: "it all starts with Manning. He's no longer another star's little brother hoping to become special. He's arrived, which is what's so different from 2007. 'You're right there,' head coach Tom Coughlin said in the locker room late Sunday night (after the win over the 49ers). 'It is Eli. He is special now. He's the biggest difference between the two teams.'

Now: And that leads us to this, from colleague Will Brinson who wrote Sunday about two ancillary storylines could morph into something much larger should the Giants win: Is Eli 1) better than his brother and 2) now in the same class as Brady? 

The Game: What Happened

Obviously, you know exactly what happened. And depending on your perspective, you'll either take great joy in reliving the Super Bowl XLII memories or, as Patriots owner Robert Kraft said Monday, choosing instead to forget it ever happened.

"I’ve never been able to watch it," he said (via ESPN.com), echoing remarks made by quarterback Tom Brady earlier in the day. "I do remember the end of the game, a ball going through our cornerback’s hands [Asante Samuel] that if he had caught that ball and it hadn’t gone through his hands, we would have been able to take a knee and we would have won the game.

"And, you know, that Eli [Manning] doing a great job escaping from that pile of guys that we had on him, and whether the whistle blows and the great catch and all these things. In the end, there are a lot of little things. That was a great game, that was a great team, and we’re looking forward to having the privilege of going to Indianapolis."


Michael Strahan: excited about Super Bowl XLII's outcome.

As for what will happen … well, we'll find out shortly. And if you can't wait, we know a camel...

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Comments

Since: Nov 29, 2011
Posted on: January 24, 2012 5:02 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

There's alot of arrogance and smugness with many Giants fans after what happened in February 2008, November 2011 and with this recent 5 or 6 week run.  Yes...your team has been on a great run the past 5-6 weeks and has every reason to be confident. That said.....underestimating what New England can do with a highly motivated Brady and Belichick is a mistake. Also keep in mind that both rarely lose to the same opponent twice in the same season.  The Pats defense is not great.......but..there are players who can make plays at key times in games. Eli has done a good job protecting the football in recent weeks. Should that change in 12 days...you are going to have some problems on your hands.  New England has the talent and motivation to lay an ass whipping and end the NYG jubilation immediately.



Since: Aug 19, 2006
Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:49 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Giants pass rush will be too much, Brady gets beat up and frustrated...throwing a pick and losing a fumble. Giants win 24-17Eli carves up New Englands secondary and once again is the thorn in the side of Belichick and company.


Should be a great game....



Since: Dec 18, 2006
Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:40 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

@NAVY,

So what is Tom Brady gonna do to the 27th ranked defense with more weapons that the Giants have.... TOAST! Pats 31 Giants 23. Enjoy crying yourself to sleep on Sunday the 5th



Since: Jul 31, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:40 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

I love how cocky the Giants fans are. It will be great to see how good they feel after the Pats spank them like they should of in 2007! Eli will throw at least two picks in this game and Brady wins his third SB MVP! Final score Pats 31 Giants 20.



Since: Aug 27, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:22 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Well according to your logic there would never be an upset, but I talking about liklihood.  As if you've never heard somebody say:  Man in X QB did this against such and such Defense, they are really going to light this particular defense up.  Statements are made like that all the time.  More often than not those statements are correct.  The NFL, just like life, has anomolies which is exactly how you explain the Chiefs beating the Packers or the Broncos beating the Steelers.  If you're asking me to agree that sometimes results go against the liklihood in football, sure I agree.



Since: Nov 4, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:15 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Dude, I'm a Kansas City Chief fan.  I don't have a dog in the fight.  You missed the entire point.

Based on your logic, explain how the Chiefs beat Green Bay?  Many examples could follow.  Also, as I've said, I do give the edge to the Giants, but to suggest, like you do, that they are going to walk all over the Patriots is silly.



Since: Aug 28, 2006
Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:10 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

But the ball NEVER touched the ground, I'm looking at the replay right now.  No analysis, are you high?  That has to be one of the most over-analyzed pieces of film since Zapruder.  Seriously?



Since: Aug 27, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 3:58 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

You are a homer if you can't see the relation.  I know it may be upsetting for you to hear, but to me it's 100% fact.  If Eli was able to have what Trent Dilfer and Tom Jackson agreed was one of the best time all time QB performances in a playoff game in those conditions against the league's best defense.  What do you think he is going to do against the Patriots beleagured defense on the fast track in Indy?  I'm not going to call names or use terms like ignorant, but to me this is hard to deny.  It's also hard to deny that against a D that is not the equal of the 49ers(although still an excellent defense) that Tom Brady didn't look very good.



Since: May 14, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 3:52 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Rob Gronkowski



Since: Nov 4, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 3:26 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Navy... You're either looking through rose colored glasses, or just being ignorant.  You just simply cannot take a game from one week, against a different opponent, in different weather, then extrapolate it another team, based on a game they played, based on OTHER teams they played, etc., etc., etc.  Talk about a slippery slope.

That's why they have gave film, experience from past games, HOF QB's, coaches, etc.  Based on you're theory, the Giants LOST the 2007 season SB, and many other games in-between, by many, many other teams.



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com