Blog Entry

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Posted on: January 24, 2012 9:00 am
Edited on: January 24, 2012 11:51 am
 
The uniforms are the same but these two teams most definitely are not. (Getty Images)

By Ryan Wilson

The more things change, the more things … change. The uniforms may be the same but four years later, the Giants and Patriots are different teams who, after 20 weeks, find themselves in a familiar position: about to face off in a Super Bowl. Four years ago, in the fortnight leading up to their first encounter in February 2008, the storylines were some variation of: "New England will absolutely obliterate New York."

Predictable, sure. But in much the same way gravity is predictable. Except that night the Giants had no use for immutable laws of nature. (Evidenced nicely by David Tyree's physics-defying grab that set up the winning touchdown.)


The Patriots' offensive firepower led by Brady and Randy Moss didn't matter. And neither did did the Spygate soap opera which served to galvanize the team earlier in the year and perpetuate the "us vs. them" mentality that gave guys like Rodney Harrison Tony Robbins-like purpose. (Harrison was known almost as much for his reliance on the "no respect for motivational purposes" shtick as he was for his tenacious, sometimes dirty style.)

This time will be different. Or least that's the thinking going in. The head coaches and quarterbacks are the same, but Eli Manning has matured and the Patriots' defense has regressed. The difference in talent between these two clubs that was once measured in miles is now better gauged in yards.

Put differently: it only seems like we've already seen this movie.

So before we take a look ahead, we thought it made sense to first take a look back.

The Rosters

The Giants head to Indianapolis with 16 players (nine starters) from the Super Bowl XLII-winning squad. The Patriots, meanwhile, have just seven players (five starters) remaining. You can view the 2007 rosters for both teams below; the players in red are still with their respective teams.



The takeaway from the list above: only one defensive player from Super Bowl XLII remains on the Patriots' roster. Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel -- all either retired or playing elsewhere -- and just Vince Wilfork, the team's 2004 first-round pick, is left. (Granted, Wilfork saved the best game of his career for last Sunday's AFC Championship matchup against the Ravens, which is timely.)

During the '07 regular season, the Patriots defense ranked 12th in league (fifth against the pass, 21st against the run), according to Football Outsiders. Four years later, and their travails have been well documented (30th overall, 28th pass, 28th run).

The one name that has remained constant: Tom Brady. He doesn't have Randy Moss but he doesn't need him. The offensive may not be as explosive without Moss but it's much more dynamic with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

On the surface, the 2011 Giants don't seem much different from the 2007 version. They won nine games this season (with 30 percent of the personnel from the Super Bowl XL roster), nine in '07; ranked 12th in team efficiency this time around versus 16th four years ago. But the similarities end there because like Brady in New England, Eli Manning has everything to do with the Giants' recent success.

For almost the entire '07 season, Manning was one of the league's most inconsistent quarterbacks. He ranked 38th in total value among NFL QBs, sandwiched between the likes of Brian Griese and Chet Lemon. Now Manning's fifth behind Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Romo and Stafford. That, more than anything else New York has done this season, is the reason they're playing one more game.

In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants had no expectations. In Super Bowl XLVI there will be plenty. And the question goes from "Can this team avoid embarrassing itself in front of a worldwide audience?" to "Can they play up to their potential and win this thing?"

Pregame Hype: A Look Back

Given these two offenses -- one record-breaking, the other aimless for much of the season -- it wasn't surprising that the Giants were getting Washington Generals-type odds to win this game.

Then:
the Patriots opened as 13.5-point favorites, according to Las Vegas. Five weeks before, in Week 17, New England was favored by 13 to beat the Giants in New York. Instead, the Pats needed a fourth-quarter comeback to eke out the 38-35 victory. (Now: the line opened Sunday with New England favored by a more modest 3.5 points.)

Then: AccuScore ran 10,000 simulations of the Giants-Patriots matchup and gave New York a 25 percent chance of winning. Sounds high -- Manning could throw that middle-of-the-field-Hail Mary to Tyree 100 times and Tyree comes down with it once. Tyree, it turns out, has impeccable timing.

Then: Cold Hard Football Facts called it the "mismatch of the century," complete with subheadings breaking down each individual mismatch ("on offense," "at quarterback," etc…).

Football Outsiders was less definitive, writing that "Most likely, the Giants won't pull a shocking upset like the 2001 Patriots, and they won't get blown off the field like the 1985 Patriots. Instead, they'll end up like a third team from New England's Super Bowl past: the 1996 Patriots, a good team outclassed by a great team. … (The 2007) Patriots will probably dispatch the Giants in a similar fashion, completing their historic 19-0 season. Not definitely. Just probably."

Then: CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco was one of the few national voices to pick the Giants. You don't even have to look it up because we've done it for you:


"I like the +11.5," Prisco said. "I think the Giants -- not only will they cover the number, they may win the game. … I think the Giants could definitely win the football game."

Then: Princess the camel (yep, you read that right -- the terrestrial counterpart to Paul the Octopus) also picked the Giants to win.

"I can't explain it, but her predictions, more often than not, are right on the money," said John Bergmann, general manager of Popcorn Park Zoo where Princess has lived since 2004. "I'm hoping she's right this time because I'm a Giants fan."

Turned out, Princess had a thing for the Mannings more so than the Giants; she picked Peyton and the Colts to win the year before. (Then again, maybe she'd seen then-Bears quarterback Rex Grossman play.)

From the ridiculous to the sublime…

Then: Another national columnist driving the Giants' bandwagon: Dr. Z. He admitted that picking New York was an opportunity to right a past wrong, when he picked the Colts to beat the Jets in Super Bowl III even though he had a feeling New York, 19-point underdogs by kickoff, had a chance to pull the upset. Forty years later, Dr. Z wasn't going to make the same mistake. Here's what he wrote on January 22, 2008:

"And gradually it dawned on me, as I toured the (Giants) locker room (after their NFC Championship game win over the Packers), picking up a quote here and there -- there isn't a way to stop Brady and Welker and Moss and Faulk and Maroney ... the whole riotous bunch. A team just has to be tougher, more resilient, more able to sustain high-level pressure on both sides of the ball for a longer period. And I honestly feel that the Giants can do it. Just look at what this improbable team has done so far."

And that's exactly how it played out.

Now: We mentioned above that the Patriots' defense has just one player from the last Super Bowl team. But much like the Giants' offense during the 2007 season, New England's D has come on of late. But will it be enough?

From CBSSports.com's Clark Judge: No team went to a Super Bowl with a defense ranked lower than 25th. Now you have the league's 27th-ranked unit (the Giants) and its 31st-ranked defense (New England), but, just a hunch, defense makes the difference in Indianapolis. It did when these two met in Super Bowl XLII, with the Giants sacking Tom Brady five times and holding the league's highest-scoring offense to 14 points.


The NY Giants and Patriots will face off in the Super Bowl once again. NFL on CBS analyst Solomon Wilcots joins the Tim Brando Show to discuss how the rematch will play out.

Now:
There used to be a time when you were never certain if Good Eli or Bad Eli would show up from one week to the next, one quarter to the next, and sometimes, one play to the next. Manning has transformed into one of the league's most consistent quarterbacks and now he has a chance to double up his older brother on total Super Bowl rings.

From Prisco's most recent column on Eli's evolution: "it all starts with Manning. He's no longer another star's little brother hoping to become special. He's arrived, which is what's so different from 2007. 'You're right there,' head coach Tom Coughlin said in the locker room late Sunday night (after the win over the 49ers). 'It is Eli. He is special now. He's the biggest difference between the two teams.'

Now: And that leads us to this, from colleague Will Brinson who wrote Sunday about two ancillary storylines could morph into something much larger should the Giants win: Is Eli 1) better than his brother and 2) now in the same class as Brady? 

The Game: What Happened

Obviously, you know exactly what happened. And depending on your perspective, you'll either take great joy in reliving the Super Bowl XLII memories or, as Patriots owner Robert Kraft said Monday, choosing instead to forget it ever happened.

"I’ve never been able to watch it," he said (via ESPN.com), echoing remarks made by quarterback Tom Brady earlier in the day. "I do remember the end of the game, a ball going through our cornerback’s hands [Asante Samuel] that if he had caught that ball and it hadn’t gone through his hands, we would have been able to take a knee and we would have won the game.

"And, you know, that Eli [Manning] doing a great job escaping from that pile of guys that we had on him, and whether the whistle blows and the great catch and all these things. In the end, there are a lot of little things. That was a great game, that was a great team, and we’re looking forward to having the privilege of going to Indianapolis."


Michael Strahan: excited about Super Bowl XLII's outcome.

As for what will happen … well, we'll find out shortly. And if you can't wait, we know a camel...

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Comments

Since: Jan 8, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:33 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Only thing that sucks about this Super Bowl is all the New Yorkers that are coming here. , it is gonna take months to get the Slime out once they all LEAVE. !-Derek Sutton
Serious. It's gonna smell like onions for about a month later. -
ONIONS???
You must be referring to all that dirty Irish snatch out in Beantown! -

Aaahahahahaha..."Onions."
  FOOGAZEE, what a toolbag.

That's a compliment.  Don't forget the hair-gel, gold chains, and orange-colored chicks.




Since: Jul 7, 2011
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:31 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Brady ranks #1 ALL Time- Once he gets #4, he will have tied or beaten ALL of Montan's records, the gold standard as the best. Who is SECOND to Brady is the question 



Since: Oct 9, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:31 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Will you be catching balls on your helmets again?  lol




Since: Jan 24, 2012
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:28 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

a rational sports fan should see the beating that is about to happen.  i just can't figure out how the patriots will make this a game.  they had a terrible defense all year against terrible offenses.   saying they have been playing better recently seems forced....weren't they playing two of the most drudging offenses in the nfl?  and miami before that?   the giants might have problems covering two tight ends and wes welker is the patriots best chance, i think.  but you can cover those guys with nickel backs, you know NE isn't going to run on you.  as far as the other side of the ball, i don't know how the pats are going to hold the giants under forty.  eli throwing well all year, receivers extremely confident and hard to tackles.  and then you've got the freight train in the back field and the little guy who thinks he's a freight train in the backfield.  i am trying to tell myself the patriots will win this to sort of continue/string out the dynasty, but i can't see how.  maybe the mysterious genius of bill/tom will pull it off. ...and make it look easy.  but i rational says no.




Since: Nov 4, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:26 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Based on what?  Yards?  Wins?  Super Bowls?  Playoffs?  Where they will be sitting a week from Sunday? 

When they can take their teams to the Super Bowl 50% of the years they play in the NFL, I'll buy it, not until then.  Plus, Brady has done it with good defenses, bad defenses, different receivers, good ones, no-names, tight-ends, on and on and on.

No, I'm not a Pat fan, but it's not even up for debate.  Now, all that's left is where he ranks all-time.



Since: Sep 12, 2006
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:25 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

I wonder when fat ass Rex Ryan will open up his mouth about this Superbowl?
Of course he picked the Ravens last week. LMAO

Rex Ryan......should be the halftime entertainment, he can lick Madonna's toe-jam clean.



Since: Aug 27, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:15 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

Oh and Tom Brady has the best career of any QB in the NFL.  However, at this point he is the 3rd best QB in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.



Since: Aug 27, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:14 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

You know Patriots fans don't really like their teams chances when they provide reasons like:

1. Owners wife is going to lead us to victory posthumously.  Not to be offensive, this is ridiculous.

2.  Tom Brady is angry!  And so?  Is he going to push a magic button now? 

3.  This team needs to right the wrongs of 07'.  Duh, I'm sure it stings the 10% of the roster that was even on the team then.


This is all referred to as reaching. 



Since: Nov 4, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:14 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

I would give a slight edge to the Giants after watching both teams play all year.  Here, however, is what I find fascinating:

Granted, I live in the NYC Metro area, NJ actually, you know, the HOME of the Giants.  There seems to be this sentiment that the Patriots, in some peoples eyes, have NO chance.  They think, which I've read and heard, mostly from fans, that very thing.

Something to think about:  In 2007, the Patriots won 18 in a row, and lost.  This year, the Packers lost ONE game, since xmas of 2010! Yes, to my Chiefs, thank you, and then they lost.   In, well most years, the Colts won 13 or 14 games, and lost.

Yet, for some reason, so many Giant fans think it's IMPOSSIBLE for the Giants top lose.

Get a clue big blue nuts.

As I said, I'd give the edge to the Giants, but will be rooting for the Patriots.  Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the NFL, period.  The guy has played 10 NFL seasons and has now taken his team to the SB in HALF, that's 50% of the years he's been under center.

Sorry, that's insane by any sports standards.

 

 

 




Since: Nov 18, 2008
Posted on: January 24, 2012 12:07 pm
 

Giants-Patriots is a SB XLII rematch in name only

The Patriots will win this in a hard fought struggle. make no mistake Tom Brady is pissed and this game is all about revenge. The Giants will not be able to cover Gronk/Hernandez/Welker. Watch as Brady gets the ball out befor ethe pass rush has a chance to get close. Watch as Brady surprisingly hits a bomb to Branch down the sidelines, the biggest area of weakness in the Giants D. watch as the Patriots D collapses the pocket on manning all day. This game has been a long time in coming, payback is gonna be so sweet. Make no mistake the Pats were rooting for the Giants to win against San Fran, this will be their redemption for 2007 and Brady's last stepping stone to being the greatest QB of all time. He'll enter into the class of Bradshaw/Montanna with 4 titles and unlike either of them, has the Marino stats to go with it, thus making him the best ever. This game will be over by the 3rd quarter and the Patriots will be victorious!!



The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com