Blog Entry

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Posted on: February 10, 2012 9:48 am
Anyone else see what stadium they're in? (Getty Images)
By Will Brinson

This is the season of Peyton Manning rumors. We hear he has "a noodle arm." We hear he cannot "throw the ball to the left." We think there's no way he could play for the Colts again after all the drama leading up to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis. But what do we know?

Nothing, at least when it comes to Manning's future. In the interest of trying to figure out what uniform -- if any -- Peyton will play, let's handicap the race for one of the all-time greats in 2012.

Anything and everything is in play, except for teams that already have what we'll loosely term a "franchise quarterback." The Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Bears, Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Rams all have their guy.

The Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings, Buccaneers and Broncos have very recent first-round investments in quarterbacks and aren't likely to pursue Manning. The Bills have a lot invested in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Peyton Manning isn't going to play in Buffalo. It's like Cleveland. Ain't happening.

That leaves the 49ers, Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Seahawks, Colts, Redskins, Cardinals and Dolphins as possible landing spots. We'll break down the scenarios in our order of likelihood and provide actual available odds from and/or the Vegas percentages from RJ Bell of


49ers: The Niners could perceive Manning as the guy to put them over the top. But Jim Harbaugh says he's got "their guy" in incumbent-but-still-free-agent quarterback Alex Smith. Maybe he means it. Or maybe he's just doing good public relations. It would be a fascinating fit for a number of reasons (Andrew Luck's old coach anyone?) though.
Vegas Odds: 2%

Chiefs: Matt Cassel isn't the long-term answer for anyone, but he did make a Pro Bowl (thanks, schedule-makers!) and he is Scott Pioli's guy. Plus, Romeo Crennel -- a defensive coordinator -- is from the previous regime as well. Oh, and this is Patriots Midwest. Makes no sense.
Vegas Odds: 1.5%

Titans: This would make sense ... except the Titans have already invested in a veteran (Matt Hasselbeck, three-year deal) and a rookie (Jake Locker, first round in 2011). Plus, they came out and said they're not chasing him.
Vegas Odds: 1.5%


Vegas Odds: 11%
Actual Line: 5/1
Everyone will tell you the Jets are the perfect fit, as they're "just one piece away." This couldn't be further from the truth: the Jets are "several pieces away" at least. Some of those pieces are on defense and some of those piece are on offense. Quarterback is one of the pieces they need, but plugging Peyton onto Rex Ryan's roster wouldn't even make them the favorite to win the AFC East, unless he was 100 percent healthy.

There are also people that will tell Eli vs. Peyton in New York is the ultimate storyline. While that's true, that doesn't mean it's something either of those guys want to deal with for the length of their current contracts. You saw what happened at the Super Bowl, right? Every question pointed to Eli was about Peyton's neck and his recovery ... even though Eli was playing for a Super Bowl. It would be magnified in the Big Apple.

And don't think Manning doesn't see a parallel to Brett Favre with the Jets option either. Look at the way he's handled his business thus far; looking like Favre is the last thing he wants.


Vegas Odds: N/A
Actual Line: N/A
Everyone's sleeping on Pete Carroll! That terrifies me to no end. Look, there are plenty of reasons why this doesn't make sense. There's no guaranteed running game (Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett are both free agents), the offensive line's young and injury-prone thus far and Sidney Rice is the best receiving option.

But the defense is good in Seattle, the coach is enthusiastic, and as we note with the Cardinals below, the NFC West is a much better path to the Super Bowl than a lot of other spots. There are also plenty of offensive skill-position guys available in free agency, so it's possible the Seahawks could convince Peyton to take snaps in Seattle and then let him play pied piper for other talented players.


Vegas Odds: 20%
Actual Line: N/A
We have to talk about it, you know? Bovada's not offering a betting line on this, but this is the most-likely scenario according to RJ Bell, as Vegas' odds give it a 20 percent chance.

I don't buy it ... but only for this year. Even if -- hypothetically speaking -- there are still reports about Manning only being able to sling his noodle to the right side of the field when March 13 comes around and -- somehow -- no one signs him, he'll keep rehabbing the entire season, getting healthy and will get a call from someone with an injured quarterback midway through the year. Last year there was a waiver scramble for Kyle Orton and the Bears actually considering calling Favre.

Manning would get a job, worst case, by November. Which is precisely why someone like the Redskins would go ahead sign him anyway, regardless of how healthy he is.


Vegas Odds: 14%
Actual Line: 3/1
Here's a theory I meant to throw out there during Super Bowl week: Jim Irsay and Peyton are punking everyone. They're having fun with everyone by acting like they hate each other, even though they have a master plan in place. Irsay will not pick up Manning's option on March 8, allowing him to become a free agent. But then Manning will re-sign with the Colts as a free agent, allowing them to limit the cap damage his contract does. He would still have $10.4 million in dead cap space if they don't pick up the option, which still gives them something like $18 million to work with.

The Colts can make his new contract cap-friendly and incentive-laden, and let Peyton finish his career as a Colt. They can also draft Andrew Luck or, if Luck decides to make a stink about playing behind Peyton, trade the pick or draft Robert Griffin, III.

There are reasons why this makes no sense: the actual disdain between Irsay and Peyton, the distraction that Peyton's situation was to Eli in the Super Bowl, Peyton's unwillingness to take less money to play for the same team and the Colts need to rebuild all the way, to name a few. But we're still throwing it out there.


Vegas Odds: 3%
Actual Line: 2.5/1

Vegas doesn't like this option, but it makes a lot of sense to me. They need to do work on the offensive line, but those problems can be addressed through free agency and the draft. Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald, a top-five wideout in the NFL, who somehow managed to catch 170 passes for 2,548 yards with John Skelton, Max Hall and Kevin Kolb under center the last two years. They have Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams in the backfield and a defense that came on strong at the end of 2011.

The Cardinals also play in a division that's conquerable right away; the NFC West might pose the path of least resistance when it comes to obtaining a Super Bowl. Arizona's lacked a franchise quarterback since Kurt Warner retired two years ago, and don't think Fitzgerald wouldn't welcome this move with open arms.

The Kurt Warner parallel here is perfect for Manning, even if Warner's path to Arizona was much different than Manning's would be.

Shanahan and Peyton together: What could go wrong? (Getty Images)


Vegas Odds: 17%
Actual Line: 2.5/1
No surprise here, but Vegas likes the Redskins a lot. After all, it's the Redskins. They throw big money at the biggest names, and no name in the history of free agency would be bigger than Peyton Manning. (I agree with Mike Freeman that Reggie White was a bigger free agent, but only because he wasn't an unknown. But Peyton's a bigger "name.")

The Redskins also think they're one piece away from making a run in the NFC East, even though they lack a lot more than just a quarterback. Who's Peyton throwing to? Who's running the ball behind Peyton? Who's protecting Peyton? WHY IS KYLE SHANAHAN ROLLING HIM OUT TO THE RIGHT?

But seriously: Mike and Kyle Shanahan have an offensive system that is absolutely tailored to a guy like RG3. They should make their all-in move on draft day, hop the Browns and grab the Baylor quarterback. He would be an instant superstar in Shanny's system and, in my opinion, more effective than Peyton for Washington in 2012. Of course, having said all that, this is Dan Snyder's team. Don't count them out to grab Peyton.


Vegas Odds: 20%
Actual Line: 3/1
The Dolphins are everyone's favorite, and it makes good sense. They have a blossoming running game and with Manning under center, Reggie Bush would only be more effective. They have talented wide receivers, with Brandon Marshall holding No. 1 potential. (Davonne Bess ain't no slouch, and Bush is a fantastic receiving option as well.)

They have a franchise left tackle in Jake Long. They have a talented defense, with only a limited number of free agents that need re-signing. They have an owner who wants to sexy-up the offense and bring in celebrities to the stadium. No one is, um, sexier than Peyton Manning. (And Stephen Ross is "infatuated" with him, reportedly. Me-ow.)

Manning owns a condo in South Beach. He'd get to play his top rival, Tom Brady, twice a year. He'd also get a ridiculously easy schedule in 2012, as outside the AFC East the Dolphins play the Jaguars, Titans, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders, Texans, 49ers, Cardinals and Bengals.

Oh right, one more team: the Colts. In Indy. It's all a little too perfect.

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Since: Feb 20, 2008
Posted on: February 10, 2012 11:19 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

He's going to the Giants and him and his brother are going to alternate quarters like Wood-Strock. It's a done deal.

Since: Aug 30, 2007
Posted on: February 10, 2012 10:44 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

I think Miami or Arizona are the best bets if he plays again at all.  But honestly I'm still not convinced he'll ever see the field again.

I agree, Arizona and Miami make the most sense, in that order. For Peyton, at this stage in his career, is looking for another opportunity to win a SB. Miami is an up and coming team, and I think will be 2nd in their division, with or without Peyton. But when you have the Pats in your division, your probably playing for second until Brady, the front office, and coaching personell leave or retire. In Arizona, they are in desperate need of a QB. A good QB wins them 5 more games than last year, easy. The defense is coming together, the running game is decent, recievers are in place, and they play indoors (retractable roof). And they have a good coach. Plus they play in the NFC West. The 49ers are good but I still don't trust them as long as Alex Smith is QB and the only recieving threat is Vernon Davis. I don't know though. The NFC is so tough that he may have a better shot making it to the SB with an AFC team. Either way, I think he plays in 2012, and plays pro-bowl well. Running backs, receivers, LB's, and lineman throughout college and pro-football have recovered from this surgery, just no-one as important to the NFL as Peyton. This questioning his arm strength and ability is all a ploy by Indy writers with help of Irsay to get the fans on the franchises side to make it easier for them to move on from Peyton. It's all part of business. I think Peyton has provided a little bit of pushback to with the medical reports and conflicting rehab progression to get Irsay to make a decision sooner than later so he can start really investigating his future. Because until he is released by the Coolts, he can't really talk to teams, and vice versa.

Since: May 31, 2007
Posted on: February 10, 2012 10:07 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012


You're right that Denver (under normal circumstances) would be an ideal fit.  But I don't think Peyton wants to end his career surrounded by the media chaos of Tebowmania.

Similarly, the Redskins get thrown around a lot as a candidate... but does anyone really believe Peyton wants to compete within the same division as his brother?

I think Miami or Arizona are the best bets if he plays again at all.  But honestly I'm still not convinced he'll ever see the field again.

Since: Apr 30, 2011
Posted on: February 10, 2012 8:36 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Don't know why the Broncos are not candidates. Their current QB holds very little weight with ownership and they have a great defense in a weak division. It's a big enough market and far enough away from little bro and arch nemisis Brady. 

Since: Feb 10, 2012
Posted on: February 10, 2012 8:29 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Perfect fit Manning goes to Arizona and takes Reggie Wayne with him. Manning to Wayne and Fitzgerald the sky would be the limit.

Since: Apr 11, 2009
Posted on: February 10, 2012 8:11 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

This actually makes a lot of sense. They could take the hometown QB Ryan Tannehill in the draft and develop him behind Peyton. He is a converted WR anyway so he will need a little more experience. This probably will not happen though.

Since: Oct 11, 2006
Posted on: February 10, 2012 6:43 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

Who's Peyton throwing to?
Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, maybe Fred Davis, Jabar Gaffney and if the Redskins go free agent shopping and pay big, then add DeSean Jackson to this list too!!
Who's running the ball behind Peyton?
Now this part was where you lost me. anyone who follows the Redskins would've seen that they have not one, but TWO running backs, three if they re-sign Hightower, plus if they need another back, free agency (again), but i like the combo of Helu and Royster who are both rookies and both had 100 yard rushing games and Helu also can catch too. so that's who runs the ball, the redskins running game could be underrated next year.

Since: Aug 30, 2007
Posted on: February 10, 2012 4:51 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

I think the odds for Washington and Arizona are backwards. There is 0% chance Peyton plays for that clusterfuck in DC.

Since: Aug 30, 2007
Posted on: February 10, 2012 4:49 pm

Handicapping where Peyton Manning plays in 2012

I hope Seattle doesn't get sucked into this. I'd rather they make a play for Flynn.
Come on. You mean T-Jack and clipboard jesus aren't the answer?

Since: Nov 2, 2011
Posted on: February 10, 2012 4:41 pm
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