Blog Entry

Series reset: Spurs backed into a corner

Posted on: April 25, 2011 4:06 pm
Edited on: April 25, 2011 4:41 pm
 
The Grizzlies lead the series 2-1. But surely the Spurs respond like they always have... except, they've never done it in this specific situation before. 
Posted by Matt Moore




The Narrative: Alright, it's been fun, Memphis.  You've made some noise. But this is where champions come out and take care of business. This is what the Spurs do. They right the ship and take care of this thing... 

Except the Spurs haven't done this before. Ever. The Duncan-era Spurs have never won a series, down 2-1 when they have surrendered homecourt advantage.  In the Duncan era, San Antonio has been down 2-1 seven times. They've come back to win once, in 2008 against the New Orleans Hornets, when they did not have homecourt advantage to begin with. You can easily argue that it only proves they've overcome tougher circumstances than this. However, it does not change the fact that, when they have surrendered homecourt advantage in two of the first three games, they are oh-fer. In 2009, the Dallas Mavericks stunned the Spurs in the first round, taking two of the first three games and losing in five. In 2006, the Spurs lost two of the first three, again to the Mavericks, losing in seven after a furious comeback. In 2001, they were swept by the Lakers when they possessed homecourt. And, in 2000, they lost a best-of-five series against the Suns after losing two of the first three. 

This isn't to say the Spurs can't do it. In fact, you could just argue this is one more thing to mark off their impressive checklist. After all, the biggest reason there are so few of these situations for them is because the Spurs also won four championships in the Duncan era. But the fact remains they are trying to do something they've never done. 

The way this series has gone is also different. In the 2008 comeback series against the Hornets, they lost the first two in New Orleans, then homecourt held for both teams until Game 7. A stout defensive performance (typical for those Spurs) and a bad shooting night for New Orleans (typical for that city's luck) lead to the Spurs advancing to the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers, who had homecourt advantage. Most notably, though? These are not the Spurs of old. The cast of characters at the front of the bill is, but the way they're trying to win is not. 

The Hook: Read Spurs blogs, listen to their broadcasters, listen to analysts. The message remains the same. The Spurs aren't going to get where they want to go in this series by playing gritty, hard-nosed defense. Instead, they have to rely on the perimeter shot. The Spurs are shooting 32 percent from the arc in this series versus 39 percent in the regular season. You can chalk that up to misses, but they're also taking six fewer shots from deep. (Stats courtesy of NBA StatsCube.)  The Spurs are playing better defense than they did in the regular season, both overall and in the four meetings with the Grizzlies, holding them to 98 defensive efficiency. But their offense has struggled as well and the result is two losses in three games. 

The Spurs shot an average of eight 3-pointers from the corner in the regular season. Against the Grizzlies, they're averaging just five. They're hitting at 47 percent, but the reason for the drop isn't systemic, it's based off the work of the Grizzlies defensively. The Grizzlies' best defensive attribute is disrupting passing lanes. They are great at anticipating and reacting to passes, particularly the drive and kick, which is a huge element in the Spurs' offense. Their help defense on penetration is their weakest asset, but their ability to jump passing lanes is their strongest. Even if they're not intercepting the pass to the corner three or wing, they're causing enough havoc to make the pass just a little harder to make, just a little harder to catch, and that disrupts timing and forces the Spurs to reset. If the Spurs cause enough damage inside on drives to force the Grizzlies to collapse harder, those perimeter threes open up, and San Antonio's success compounds itself. That's what's deciding this series so far. 

The Adjustment: In Game 1, the Grizzlies pounded the ball inside relentlessly. In Game 2, the Spurs responded by jamming the lane and collapsing on any ball-handler who entered, risking the kick-out to shooters. In Game 3, the Grizzlies spread their bigs more evenly, creating more space in the passing lanes within the paint. That helped with dishing to cutters, which forced the Spurs to not double over-aggressively, which created more room for the Memphis bigs. Again, the problem compounds itself. The Spurs in Game 4 will likely counter that by bringing doubles even faster and risking the Grizzlies having driving lanes. No Memphis wing has proven they can effectively slice through the offense other than Mike Conley. And if Mike Conley beats you, you just have to live with it if you're the Spurs. At some point, down 2-1, you have to pick your poison. They don't want to pick getting huge contributions from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol

The X-Factor: Matt Bonner can kill the Spurs or the Grizzlies. It's going to be one or the other. Offensively, Bonner is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. He's phenomenal. He's an abject terror on the catch and shoot. With a tall frame, high release, and consistent form, Bonner daggered the Grizzlies in Game 2 and can do it again in Game 3 if left open. On the other hand, Bonner is a defensive nightmare... for San Antonio. The Grizzlies have started actually isolating Bonner at the elbow with either Darrel Arthur or Marc Gasol (the Spurs don't let Bonner see much time on Zach Randolph, and if they do, they double immediately). And nearly every time it results in a foul or points. Bonner has over a 109 defensive efficiency. That is awful. He can't handle Marc Gasol's girth, Randolph's moves, Arthur's speed, cover rotations or contribute in any way outside of the perimeter shot. But when he hits, it's a key element. That's why he keeps getting time. If the Spurs can find a way to cover for his defensive malfunctions while allowing the Bonner-Bot 2000 to just shoot 3-pointers, they'll be in good shape to tie the series. 

The Sticking Point: Memphis has played what could be arguably better basketball in likely 10 of the past 12 quarters of this series. But the Spurs lost by a Shane Battier 3-pointer in Game 1, and a clinching Zach Randolph 3-pointer (!) in Game 3, and still had a chance to tie that game. Memphis can't rely on San Antonio failing to call a timeout in Game 4. The Spurs, a championship quality team, is backed into a corner. They're going to respond. The big question tonight is how far the Grizzlies really want to go. Are they happy to get their first two playoff wins in franchise history and their first home playoff win ever, or do they really want to shock the world and complete a huge upset of an 8 seed over 1. Game 3 is likely going to be the game that decides that.

It's a must-win. For both teams. 


Comments

Since: Dec 11, 2006
Posted on: April 25, 2011 8:12 pm
 

Series reset: Spurs backed into a corner

I must say I'm very impressed by what the Grizzlies have shown so far in this series with the Spurs.  Zach Randoph and Marc Gasol are killing the Spurs on the inside.  This must be addressed by the Spurs immediately and I'm sure it will.  I think we need to step back to take a broader view at what's happening though.  Coming into the series, the Spurs were not concerned whatsoever with their first round  series with the Grizzlies.  I mean, it's the Grizzlies, an 8 seed.  No worries, right?  Well, the Spurs drop a close game 1 without Manu Ginobili, a huge part of their team.  Game 2 and all is back to normal with Ginobili's return.  They pull out their expected win.  Game 3 was a close loss on the road.  None of this is really very surprising.  A short handed loss and a close road loss.  What worries me though is what all of this has done to each teams' psyche.  I'm pretty sure the veteran Spurs are taking it all in stride.  But the Grizzlies have to really be energized by what they have experienced.  They have very talented players with little playoff experience.  Are they still sure they can't beat the Spurs?  I really don't think so now.  It will be very interesting to see how they handle the additional excitement and adreneline.  It literally could overwhelm them if they think very much about what they think is happening.  The reality is that they are playing a championship caliber team.  They are playing against a very veteran team that has Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili plus good depth.  And they are playing against a veteran, crafty coach who knows how to make adjustments.  And now they're playing against a team that knows it must win, no matter what.  I still like the Spurs to pull this series out.



Since: Mar 22, 2011
Posted on: April 25, 2011 6:34 pm
 

Series reset: Spurs backed into a corner

I'll be honest, I haven't watched a second of this series. Something about San Antonio/Memphis just does't get my juices going. However, nothing about what has transpired surprised me. For one thing, with Zach Randolph the Griz. have the best player on the court. Not sure why the Knicks got rid of him in fact. Also, the Spurs had the worst 60 win team I've ever seen (think of one that's worse); feasting on weak opponents all season.
I expect more of the same, or as Charles Barkley put it after Game 1 the Grizzlies are goin' ta win this series Ernay.
If you're interested in my posts about other playoff matchups you can check them out  Thanks!



Since: Mar 26, 2009
Posted on: April 25, 2011 4:32 pm
 

Series reset: Spurs backed into a corner

Excellent analysis, and i agree that game 4, tonight, is decisive.  It's a must win for the Spurs to win back the home court advantage, and take off the pressure.  If the Grizzlies, are ever to win a series, they need to win tonight to have a chance to come back home and clinch in game 6. 

I love this series, and i love the fact that the national media is stunned, and stumped as to how the Grizz have been able to jump out to a 2-1 lead. 

To me, it's a little bit of the changing of the guard.  Duncan is clearly not the player he was 5 years ago, although he has glimpses of brilliance.  No one on the Spurs can contain Zach Randolph alone, and when he is doubled, he has been a good passer.  Gasol has been a beast in the paint on both ends.  And frankly, i never thought i'd type these words, but Mike Conley has outplayed Tony Parker.  Hard to imagine, but it's true.  Ginobili has been good, but obviously banged up, and too concerned with getting to the foul line instead of just making the hard play. 

Plus the Grizzlies have done all of this without arguably their best player in Rudy Gay.  Great series, and a coming of age for the young Grizzlies. 

  


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