Blog Entry

Roundtable: AP poll vs. Coaches

Posted on: August 22, 2011 6:39 pm
 
By Eye on College Football Bloggers

Occasionally the Eye on CFB team convenes Voltron-style to answer a pressing question regarding the wild, wide world of college football. This week's topic:

The preseason AP poll is out and there's a few differences-of-opinion between the media and the Coaches' Poll. Which of those opinions does the AP have right--or wrong?

Adam Jacobi: I'm still extremely leery of putting Texas A&M and Oklahoma State in the top 10 (top nine, even, I suppose), but considering that this was the case in the coaches' poll too, I guess the Aggies and Cowboys are there to stay (until they lose).

The AP left Penn State out of the Top 25, and though the Nittany Lions are really 27th instead of 25th (i.e. not that big of a difference), I'm perfectly fine with that. I don't see their candidacy for the Top 25 lasting past the Alabama game, or reinvigorating itself at very many other points in the season. JoePa is notorious for slow-playing his quarterback situations--remember when Daryll Clark wasn't named starter until a week or two before the '08 season, then won Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year?--but I'm completely unsold on both Robert Bolden and Matt McGloin at this point, and thus unsold on PSU too. I find it interesting that Arkansas only dropped from 14th in the coaches' poll to 15th in the AP after Knile Davis went down. I think the actual impact of his injury is going to be much more substantial. Agree?
Tom Fornelli: I'm not as surprised by Arkansas only dropping a spot, because I believe in our own Brett McMurphy's ballot he said that the Knile Davis injury occurred after ballots had to be sent in. Had the injury happened a few days earlier, I believe Arkansas would have found itself closer to 20th.

AJ: Facts are for weenies, Tom.

TF: I do agree with your sentiments on Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. While I'm more confident in Oklahoma State, I'm just not sure that either is a top 10 team at the moment, and if the preseason poll is supposed to be an educated guess on how things will look at the end of the season, then I am really hesitant about boththose teams being in the top ten. One of them, maybe. But both? No.

Another team that I feel is ranked too high right now is Florida State. I understand that the Seminoles got back on the right track last season under Jimbo Fisher, but this is still a team that lost four games last season and sent its starting quarterback off to the NFL. I'm not knocking E.J. Manuel or anything, but a four-loss team with a new quarterback suddenly vaults into the top six in both polls? Am I the only one who thinks this doesn't make sense?

Chip Patterson: I think voters are remembering the way Florida State finished their season (an impressive performance in a 44-33 loss to Virginia Tech without Ponder, and knocking off the SEC runner-up in the Chick Fil-A Bowl) rather than looking at the team that lost back-to-back games to N.C. State and North Carolina.  The Seminoles have their eyes set on returning to the top five, and arguably have their best team since 2005.  Ponder's health issues have had Manuel on constant stand-by over the last two seasons, and the junior has a 4-2 record as a starter.  The Seminoles have a pair of scrimmages on the schedule before facing top-ranked Oklahomain Tallahassee on Sept. 17.  I expect that game will reveal a lot about both teams, and the outcome could shift the landscape in the hunt for the national title.

But to the question at hand: how bout them 'Neers? After the Big East was shut out of the coaches' version, West Virginia snuck into the AP poll to keep the conference from being absent in all four of the final 2010 and preseason 2011 polls. With Dana Holgorsen at the controls, it's entirely deserved.  But unfortunately, WVU was in the same position last year and dropped from the polls after losing to LSU in September. The Bayou Bengals visit Morgantown on Sept. 24 this year, so we'll see if the Mountaineers can get revenge with their new homefield advantage.

Jerry Hinnen: Though FSU looks a hair too high to me, I'm more interested in who the AP jumped over them: Boise State. The coaches were more skeptical about the Broncos, placing them No. 7, behind both the 'Noles and Stanford.The AP bumped them up to fifth, just behind the consensus top four.

And that's the right call. Because of the torrent of hype for what was expected to be Chris Petersen's best team last year, the popular conception of the Broncos seems to be that their national title window has passed. And that probably was Petersen's best team, given the strength it wielded at receiver and corner that doesn't return this year. But with Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, a stack of gifted linemen, and one of the nations's stingiest run defenses, this year's Broncos could still give last year's a run for their money.  Plus, here's the kicker: the schedule sets up even better for a chance at a crystal football than it did last year. Potential SEC East champ Georgia could give the Broncos the high-profile scalp they need to force their way into the conversation, with TCU another possible 10-win victim to boost the profile. There doesn't appear to be any road ambush waiting a la Nevada last year, either, unless San Diego State is better than we're expecting.

Bottom line: if the Broncos get past Georgia, this is a team that should finish much closer to (as in, ahead of) the AP's ranking than the coaches'--and yes, finish higher than either FSU or Andrew Luck's Cardinal, who may feel the loss of both Jim Harbaugh and top-notch defensive coordinator Vic Fangio more keenly than most expect.


Comments

Since: Oct 7, 2011
Posted on: October 19, 2011 2:54 am
 

Roundtable: AP poll vs. Coaches

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Since: Oct 21, 2010
Posted on: August 23, 2011 11:12 am
 

Just "hold your broncos" on Boise State

I love how the Horned Frogs are 'under the radar" this year. They are high enough in the rankings that they could do some serious damage yet nobody expects them to be in the top because of the 26 lettermen lost from the Rose Bowl season before. Yes TCU is replacing a senior QB, both offensive tackles and center, most of the CBs, it looks dim. But TCU has been recruiting well, TCU believes it has a well seasoned QB to replace Dalton and if the defense is #1 again for the fourth year in a row TCU could surprise all.

Not saying TCU goes undefeated but when I read this,

There doesn't appear to be any road ambush waiting a la Nevada last year, either, unless San Diego State is better than we're expecting.
I just laugh. Kellen Moore still hasn't thrown a TD on TCU. He might score a TD this year but TCU is not going to give the game to Boise State. TCU is better than any Nevada team ever even the really good Nevada team of 2010/11 season. Yes, TCU's QB could be horrible and we suffer a bad year like University of Texas did last season with Garrett Gilbert (who was a big reason for their 5-7 season). However even if TCU has a set back season to reload, TCU could still easily beat Boise State as easily as they are predicted to beat TCU. Gary Patterson will be ready for Boise State on the blue turf. TCU in the past has stopped home winning streaks such as with Oklahoma in Norman and Utah at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Boise State is a monster this year. Kellen Moore is in my opinion the best QB just slightly better than OU's QB and Stanford's QB. Boise State's coaches are amazing, great at preparing the best plan to beat a team. However I will go by the words of their own coach when he says, ""We know how hard it is being new to a conference." - meaning its not going to be as easy as the media is saying it is going to be.

It will be a long season and who knows maybe 2011 Ted Hendricks Award watch list Stansly Maponga comes around the corner and takes Kellen Moore out? Or Tank Carter blows through the line and makes snot bubbles come out of Moore and Martin noses so much that they see stars for the rest of the game? Who knows? But just don't hand Boise State the MWC title and the crystal ball just yet, a Horned Frog might have something to show you first before you "crown them".

Go Frogs!


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