Posted by Adam Jacobi
AIR FORCE WILL WIN IF: Kellen Moore defects from Boise State before the game. Here's a list of the quarterbacks who have beaten Boise State over the last 3+ seasons: Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton. That's. it. Two quarterbacks who have been among the most prolific and successful in their respective conferences' histories. Air Force's Tim Jefferson may be a decent enough dual threat QB, but he is no Colin Kaepernick or Andy Dalton. And with Air Force already giving up over 35 points a game so far on the season (including 59 to Notre Dame two weeks ago), setting Moore loose against this Falcon defense may be a fireworks show for the ages.
BOISE STATE WILL WIN IF: Things do not go horribly, horribly wrong. Boise State has outscored its first two Mountain West opponents 120-20 this season, and there's not much reason to think Air Force can keep the game much closer this week. Yes, the Falcon option attack is racking up yards and points this season, but nobody that the Falcons have faced -- not even Notre Dame -- has a front seven as talented as Boise State's. Look for big days from Moore, workhorse tailback Doug Martin, and emerging star wideout Tyler Shoemaker.
X-FACTOR: Style points. Boise State's currently ahead of Wisconsin in the BCS rankings at No. 5, and after the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game and the Alabama-LSU game, Boise State could very well reach No. 3 in the BCS rankings without any help from upsets. So it's going to be crucial for Boise State to continue impressing the Harris Poll and Coaches Poll voters, and the only way to do that against opponents like Air Force is to light up the scoreboard. Is that sporting? No, but it's the way of things in a sport without a playoff system, so it'll be interesting to see when Chris Peterson finally lets his foot off the gas pedal, and how Boise State looks compared to the rest of the top contenders at the end of the day.