Posted by Tom Fornelli
BAYLOR WILL WIN IF: Baylor needs to outscore Oklahoma State, it's that simple. I don't mean that in a sarcastic "you win by scoring more points, duh" way, I mean that in the sense that I don't think there's any reason to believe that Baylor's defense will be able to keep the Oklahoma State offense from putting points, and a lot of them, on the board. So Robert Griffin and company will have to answer the Cowboys touchdown for touchdown. Which, against this Oklahoma State defense, can be done. The key, however, will be for Baylor to protect the football. No defense in the Big 12 has forced more turnovers than Oklahoma State, and that's what makes this team so hard to beat because the Oklahoma State offense takes advantage of those turnovers nearly every time. Griffin has only thrown 2 interceptions this season, and if that total grows on Saturday, then Baylor probably won't be walking off the field with a win.
OKLAHOMA STATE WILL WIN IF: Much like I said above, its defense can continue forcing turnovers. I have no doubts that the Oklahoma State offense will be able to put up points against this Baylor defense, as it's allowing 32.7 points per game. The Baylor offense, however, is just as potent and can strike just as quickly as the Oklahoma State offense. So if the Cowboys defense can add to its takeaway total in this one, that keeps Baylor off the scoreboard, and that's the most important thing it can do on Saturday. It sounds ridiculously simple, and that's because it is. Still, just because it sounds simple doesn't mean it will be easy to do.
X-FACTOR: Terrence Ganoway. We know that with this Baylor offense Robert Griffin is going to get his yards, be it through the ground or through the air. Which means that for Baylor to have a better chance of winning this game, running back Terrence Ganoway is going to have to contribute. In Baylor's 4 wins this season Ganoway has rushed for an average of 124.5 yards per game and has 6 touchdowns. In the 2 losses Ganoway is averaging 36.0 yards a game and has 1 touchdown. This Oklahoma State defense has given up over 186 yards rushing per game and is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Baylor and Ganoway need to take advantage of that on Saturday.