Blog Entry

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Posted on: December 24, 2012 11:53 am
 
One of the featured games of Christmas week basketball will be this Thursday, 27 December when the Cincinnati Bearcats host the New Mexico Lobos at 9PM EST.  The game will be televised live on ESPN2.  

The Bearcats haven't lost this season and are now sitting pretty at 12-0.  The Lobos are coming their first loss of the season against South Dakota State and are 12-1.  

Game analysis:

Coming off a rare home loss at the Pit to South Dakota State, and travelling to Cincinnati, advantage should go to the Bearcats who are unbeaten.  New Mexico, however, has played well enough on the road.  New Mexico will want seek to take advantage of its size inside will attempt to get to the freethrow line.  Both teams this season are exceeding expectation.  Cincinnati will attack and try to get the Lobos into a run and gun game.  New Mexico has the ability to shoot from the outside if the Bearcats go to a zone defense. Cincinnati struggles in the half-court offense but excels in the open court.  New Mexico is the opposite.  Cincinnati was unhappy that New Mexico's only date to visit was two days after Christmas which forces the Bearcats to practice on Christmas.  The featured matchup is Cincinnati's Sean Kilpatrick against New Mexico's Kendall Williams.  New Mexico is 3-0 against the spread on the road this season and Cincinnati is 2-3 at home against the spread.  Line will be Cincy with 7-10 point advantage.  


CINCINNTI:

Led by Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati is one of the top rebounding teams in the country averaging over 46 boards a contest.  They are also in the top 20 in scoring and close to the top 25 in total defense allowing only 57.7 points per game.  Their wins against Iowa State, Oregon, Alabama, and Xavier are notable.  THe only team able to hang with the Bearcats this season was Alabama (58-56) needing PG Cashmere Wright to make a buzzer beater to win the game.  

Cincinnati players:

Sean Kilpatrick (G-F):  Averaging over 19PPG and is the Bearcats leading rebounder.
Cashmere Wright:  Averaging 14 PPG including 36% from beyond the arc, 
JaQuon Parker:  12PPG- not a great shooter, but important all-around performer
Cheikh Mbodj:  Gets in foul trouble, but big presence and shoots a good percentage

OTHERS:
Jeremiah Davis III
Justin Jackson
David Nyarsuk
Shaquille Thomas
Jermaine Sanders


NEW MEXICO:

Statistically not impressive, but at 12-1 with wins over UConn, Ill-Chicago, George Mason and road wins at Indiana St and New Mexico St, they have played above expectation.  Have played a slightly tougher schedule, overall, than Cincinnati.  Good freethrow shooting team.  7 shoot from beyond the arc.  


New Mexico players:

Kendall Willams:  Energetic guard who shoots, can get to the rim and dishes better than most  15PPG, 5APG
Tony Snell:  Big guard who is the team's best shooter but has struggled.  He can handle the ball also
Alex Kirk:  7-foot center who prefers to shoot from beyond freethrow line, 8RPG, 1 BPG, 
Hugh Greenwood:  Australian PG, great ball handler, shoots, excellent rebounder
Cameron Bairstow:  Another Aussie, big presence, shoots high percentage, scrappy

OTHERS:
Chad Adams
Demetrius Walker
Jamal Fenton
Nick Banyard

 
Comments

Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2012 12:20 am
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Yeah, ...no more jinxes!!!   Like the Lobo team, I was totally overlooking South Dakota State.  I was looking toward Cincy, St Louis, and UNLV...I thought that Nate Wolters was still going to be out -either ankle or sickness- I knew they took a bus for nearly 2,000 miles...and I didn't even track the game and was shocked to see the final score and that word of Wolter's ailments seemed to have been greatly exagerated.  Are you kidding me?  Game wasn't even close.  Lobos couldn't hit the wide side of a adobe house and Wolters put on a clinic.  Rats.  

The good news for Bearcats nation is that Cincinnati has been playing well and few know anything about New Mexico-so they should play with confidence...for the 1st half.  This will be the first meeting ever for the two teams.  Odds-makers will call it around 7 point Cincy advantage- which is about right.  I'll predict the game will be a nail-biter.  For the betting world, expect the Lobos to cover the spread.  For the unrealistic New Mexico homers, bet the farm because this game is important, and New Mexico has played well in these situations under Alford.  Win?  Not sure, but close...I think Lobos win in good one.

Recent Trends:

Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Lobos last 4 vs. Big East.  (Last win vs UConn in Championship of Paradise Jam)

Under is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 overall.

Bearcats win with great intensity on defense and dominating the glass but one thing Bearcats don't do well is shoot the ball from the floor-or from anywhere.  They will be contending with two good players inside... a big body 7-footer who can shoot, Alex Kirk and a very capable Aussie, Cameron Bairstow, who is scrappy and fundamentally sound.  Cincy has the advantage in aggressive play and forward play, but not huge disparity there...  The Lobos can shoot well from the floor-especially from beyond the arc-they have 7 who can hit the long ball at any time and pass around the perimeter for the open shot.  They shoot better on the road than at home, which is odd.  Cincy defense will bother the ball handlers and should cause turnovers-especially in the half-court.  There are only 4 players who can break down the Cincy defense, while the Bearcats have at least 6.  Foul shooting gives the Lobos a huge edge, so Cincinnati will strive to not foul.  New Mexico will foul when in doubt and will make Cincinnati earn it from the line.  If I were the coaching staff of Cincy, I'd stay with man coverage.  If I'm New Mexico coaches, I'd stick with zone.  Coaching 101 and both coaches are experienced and even talented-expect them to make those calls early until they aren't effective...which will be the whole game.  Lobos coaching will make the Bearcats beat from the the perimeter, and that should keep this close all the way to the end. New Mexico has received little attention but after a close game at Cincinnati the Lobos will draw attention. Lobos cover ATS and might even win outright. 




Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 27, 2012 12:19 am
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Yeah, like the Lobo team...no more jinxes!!!   Like the Lobo team, I was totally overlooking South Dakota State.  I was looking toward Cincy, St Louis, and UNLV...I thought that Nate Wolters was still going to be out -either ankle or sickness- I knew they took a bus for nearly 2,000 miles...and I didn't even track the game and was shocked to see the final score and that word of Wolter's ailments seemed to have been greatly exagerated.  Are you kidding me?  Game wasn't even close.  Lobos couldn't hit the wide side of a adobe house and Wolters put on a clinic.  Rats.  

The good news for Bearcats nation is that Cincinnati has been playing well and few know anything about New Mexico-so they should play with confidence...for the 1st half.  This will be the first meeting ever for the two teams.  Odds-makers will call it around 7 point Cincy advantage- which is about right.  I'll predict the game will be a nail-biter.  For the betting world, expect the Lobos to cover the spread.  For the unrealistic New Mexico homers, bet the farm because this game is important, and New Mexico has played well in these situations under Alford.  Win?  Not sure, but close...I think Lobos win in good one.

Recent Trends:

Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Lobos last 4 vs. Big East.  (Last win vs UConn in Championship of Paradise Jam)

Under is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 overall.

Bearcats win with great intensity on defense and dominating the glass but one thing Bearcats don't do well is shoot the ball from the floor-or from anywhere.  They will be contending with two good players inside... a big body 7-footer who can shoot, Alex Kirk and a very capable Aussie, Cameron Bairstow, who is scrappy and fundamentally sound.  Cincy has the advantage in aggressive play and forward play, but not huge disparity there...  The Lobos can shoot well from the floor-especially from beyond the arc-they have 7 who can hit the long ball at any time and pass around the perimeter for the open shot.  They shoot better on the road than at home, which is odd.  Cincy defense will bother the ball handlers and should cause turnovers-especially in the half-court.  There are only 4 players who can break down the Cincy defense, while the Bearcats have at least 6.  Foul shooting gives the Lobos a huge edge, so Cincinnati will strive to not foul.  New Mexico will foul when in doubt and will make Cincinnati earn it from the line.  If I were the coaching staff of Cincy, I'd stay with man coverage.  If I'm New Mexico coaches, I'd stick with zone.  Coaching 101 and both coaches are experienced and even talented-expect them to make those calls early until they aren't effective...which will be the whole game.  Lobos coaching will make the Bearcats beat from the the perimeter, and that should keep this close all the way to the end. New Mexico has received little attention but after a close game at Cincinnati the Lobos will draw attention. Lobos cover ATS and might even win outright. 




Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 26, 2012 8:21 pm
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

From official program- game material:

The Lobos definitely find the Mountain West tougher than the so-called Big-Six leagues. After going 5-0 last season vs. Big Six conference teams, all away from The Pit, UNM is at it again, beating UConn of the Big East and USC of the Pac-12. The matchup with Cincinnati is the final regular season match-up of a “Big Six” conference team this year.

However, it’s not just a new thing. In regular season games against “Big Six” conference opponents (Pac 12, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, and SEC), the Lobos are 16-3 under Steve Alford in those games, and it’s not like those folks are more than happy to come to Albuquer- que. The Lobos are 4-3 on the road against Big Six Conferences, and then a perfect 6-0 in The Pit, and a perfect 6-0 on neutral courts. UNM has won 13 of its last 14 regular season games against teams from Big Six conferences, and nine in row.

A couple of other great notes about UNM’s unprecedented success against Big Six *Under Alford, Lobos are 10-3 vs. Big Six away from Albuquerque. In the previous 35 years, the Lobos were 10-36 vs. Big Six teams away from Albuquerque.




Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 26, 2012 8:20 pm
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Found this in the Lobos' game material:  Interesting....

The Lobos definitely find the Mountain West tougher than the so-called Big-Six leagues. After going 5-0 last season vs. Big Six conference teams, all away from The Pit, UNM is at it again, beating UConn of the Big East and USC of the Pac-12. The matchup with Cincinnati is the final regular season match-up of a “Big Six” conference team this year.

However, it’s not just a new thing. In regular season games against “Big Six” conference opponents (Pac 12, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, and SEC), the Lobos are 16-3 under Steve Alford in those games, and it’s not like those folks are more than happy to come to Albuquer- que. The Lobos are 4-3 on the road against Big Six Conferences, and then a perfect 6-0 in The Pit, and a perfect 6-0 on neutral courts. UNM has won 13 of its last 14 regular season games against teams from Big Six conferences, and nine in row.

A couple of other great notes about UNM’s unprecedented success against Big Six *Under Alford, Lobos are 10-3 vs. Big Six away from Albuquerque. In the previous 35 years, the Lobos were 10-36 vs. Big Six teams away from Albuquerque.




Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2012 3:57 pm
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Although ESPN reported originally that New Mexico State was visiting, I think they finally got their act together...

Here is Seth Greenberg's analysis.  Although not sure he knows too much about either team, and especially New Mexico, he normally does a nice job.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/sports/

2012/12/24/seth-greenberg-breaks-do

wn-bearcats-vs-new-mexico/



Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2012 2:13 pm
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Yeah, I misspell Cincinnati all the time.  It's probably why I prefer "Cincy."  Still, I think the game will be good.



Since: Feb 5, 2007
Posted on: December 24, 2012 12:02 pm
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

You spelled Cincinnati wrong in one of the headers.

As for game of the week, perhaps. Before the loss I would say yes for sure but there is also Louisville/Kentucky among a few others.



Since: Mar 1, 2009
Posted on: December 24, 2012 11:55 am
 

Cincinnati hosts New Mexico

Game of the week?


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com