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Blog Entry

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Posted on: January 1, 2011 10:53 am
Edited on: January 1, 2011 9:54 pm
 
by Jerry Palm

There are still seven undefeated teams in division I-A as we enter 2011, but two of them are considered longshots by most to even make the NCAA tournament.

UCF is intriguing.  They are actually in the top 20 of the RPI and even ahead of Ohio State, but as they enter Conference USA play, that number has likely peaked.  The Knights played an average non-conference schedule that has one sure quality win -- over Florida.  They also beat Miami and South Florida.

Many people dismiss them because they figure that Memphis is still the overwhelming team to beat in the league, but I think they have set themselves up for a possbile at-large bid if they can perform well in the league.

Cincinnati, which is 14-0 and has two Big East wins already, is way down at 69th in the RPI this morning.  That's a stunning number.  I've been tracking RPI since 1993-94 and could not find a 14-0 team that far down.  The last undefeated team on New Year's Day that far down in the rankings was Texas A&M in 2006 (95th at 10-0).

You have to play a pretty wretched schedule to be 69th at 14-0.  The Bearcats played the 10th worst non-conference schedule, and they played most of those games at home.  So far, they have played only one RPI top 100 team (No. 62 Dayton) and just six that rank better than 250th.

When you play a schedule like that, you are basically saying that you intend to make your case for the tournament in conference.  That means not just muddling through, but doing very well.  Cincinnati probably needs at least 12 wins, and even that may not do it for them.  They cannot afford to be anywhere near the bottom of the at-large pool with a non-conference schedule that bad.


Comments

Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2011 9:44 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

also... we can be critical of the win/loss record of cinn vs occ... but the reality is that the records are somewhat due to midlevel or less teams being scheduled by highly ranked teams... if you look at several of the top ranked sos schedules by teams... are owned at this part of season by midlevel or less... when the conference play begins this changes... I believe this is one of the first years cinn has not played a round robin type tournament... which matches up top teams... which typically has high ranked teams play each year...so at least some of the low sos is the result of other high quality teams having games against the same level teams... the only real diff is that cinn has not played in the high profile tourneys... just my opinion



Since: Jan 1, 2011
Posted on: January 1, 2011 9:36 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

People bashing UC including Palm need to get their facts straight.  UC has played 3 ROAD games.....someone said they played all games at home? Completely untrue.   UC has played 1 neutral court game,,,,so 4 wins are NOT at home.  UC has beaten Dayton by 34 pts on a neutral court, Dayton is 11-3 and has beaten New Mexico,Ole Miss at Ole Miss, George mason, and lost at the buzzer at Old Dom so dont say Dayton sucks its makes you look stupid.    Playing Xavier is a good win for Zaga? and Fla? But a terrible schedule for UC? How does that work?   XU beat Butler? didnt they?    Numbers lie all the time but last time I check Insider rpi was 51 for UC not 69?  The RPI goes up every day.  

Lets look at the schedues of every big east school and UC is right with everyone. 

Palm has lost his mind to make that statement about 12 wins that is so stupid I dont know where to begin.  No Big East team has EVER  EVER EVER been left out of the NCAA tourney with 23 wins,  NEVER.......and that was with 64 and 65 teams, not 68 teams.....

UC will win 23 games......they will win 10 games in league and they WILL be about a 5 or 6 seed.......Palm it really makes you look silly to compare UCF schedule with Cincy.   Cincy plays 8 games against the top 20 in the nation....8 games.....UCF plays ZEROOOOOO...

Lets ask Vegas what the spread would be on a neutral floor......Cincy would be a 7 or 8 pt favorite over UCF ........did you get drunk last night......I think you must be hung over or something.



Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2011 9:30 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

yes... the issue is right now as you put it... then let me ask you why is ohio state ranked 2nd? at this point has their play or even schedule even remotely qualify them as the number two team?... they are undefeated... but guess what they started highly ranked before they even played a game... so it was theirs to lose... so in reality much of sos comes from preseason ranking which is subjective...



Since: Jan 5, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2011 9:19 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

I don't get overly annoyed by grammar and spelling hitches, since I have my own problems, but this one gets me because it's so common.  the word people are looking for is parity, not parody.  That is, unless you mean the NCAA is a parody of an organization that puts academics and integrity first, in which case I retract my correction.

As for the actual story, it doesn't matter if Cinci plays a good part of a dozen of games against top 25 teams right nowRight now they have played a pathetic schedule, and have padded their win total on a diet of cupcakes.  If they are still undefeated after they play those games, then you have something to ponder, but it doesn't mean squat at the moment.



Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2011 8:09 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

very interesting analysis... lets see... there are several teams in the top 25 with sos in the high two hundreds... ohio state at 273... osu has not beaten a top 25 team yet... but their number 2... not saying cinn is worthy of a top 10 or 20... but they are undefeated.. beat the top 13-2 A10 team by almost  double the score... but everyone seems they are sneaking through with a undefeated record... again by an average 20 pts.. again the next couple weeks will tell..but I have never seen so much criticism of an undefeated team  that has basically won all the games they were suppose to to this point... can we say that about tenn that earlier some of the talking heads were including as a nc possibility.. won two games against highly ranked (early) and presto they were a top 10 or 5 team ... cinn is a very deep team with five starters as seniors... they play as a team... not dependent on one or two players to excell/fail  like some of the highly ranked teams... again we shall see in the near future... but bashing a team for taking care of business and exceeding expectations is just cheap in my book



Since: Sep 14, 2009
Posted on: January 1, 2011 7:51 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

12 wins?  What a joke.  Cincinnati plays 8 games against teams currently in the top 25.  Pretty sure that is a tougher schedule than nearly everyone not in the Big East.  Just like every year 7 or 8 big east teams will make the tourny, so 10 BE wins will do the trick.  Their non conference schedule is weak, but only because Dayton, Oklahoma, and Xavier are down this year.  Normally those three games are top 25 games.  The Big East is the toughest conference in the nation by far, if they end up in the top half of the conference they'll be in.  I love how people, who haven't watched Cincinnati play, bash them.  Watching them, you will see the drastic improvement.  They have size, depth, and play hardnose defense.  They aren't Duke or Syracuse, but they'll make the tourny.  Don't bring up the RPI til March, when it actually counts. 



Since: Sep 27, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2011 7:12 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

If they win 10 games in the Big East they are in. Period. The parody in the NCAA works to their advantage. They play the Johnnies twice, look who they just beat. They will play anywhere from 7-9 ranked teams. If they knock off a few and end the season around 25 regular season wins, and win a couple in NYC...they are in. No doubt in my mind. Palm is wrong...again.



Since: Sep 12, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2011 6:36 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

YOU DONT SCHEDULE 7 TEAMS BELOW 250 IN THE RPI! They are poison!  Those games are practically the same as actual losses to decent teams.  Whoever put this sched together needs to be fired!  I just cant see this group going 12-6 in the Big East, I dont care if the conf sched is on the light side, they need it to be on the heavy side to get their #'s back up.  They're screwed.



Since: Sep 11, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2011 2:55 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Sorrry, but Lute " Bob Barker look a-like" Olsen is gone and you are stuck with the Sean" I will never leave eggs-avier" Miller.  Your b-ball will be stuck in the desert with the cactus for a quarter of a century. 



Since: Sep 11, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2011 2:48 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

My apology to Mr. Palm, it was the other guru, Joe "look @ my smile" Lunardi that had Cincy in safely the 05-06 season but my point being the rpi will be the thing of the past very soon, 2 much parity in b-ball today. 


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