Blog Entry

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

Posted on: March 6, 2011 12:08 pm
Edited on: March 6, 2011 1:10 pm
by Jerry Palm

Saturday was a day of change in the bracket at both ends.  At the top, Duke lost to North Carolina, giving the Tar Heels the ACC regular season title.  Quick show of hands - who had UNC winning the ACC regular season back in October.  Yeah, me neither.

That loss by the Blue Devils, combined with Notre Dame's win at Connecticut, has vaulted the Irish to the top line of the bracket.  For now.  In fact, just about ever sentence of this post could end with "for now."

Purdue missed the bus to Iowa, and whoever was wearing their uniforms instead lost to Iowa.  That is costly for the Boilers.  Not only did it cost them a shot at the Big Ten regular season title, but it knocks them out of realistic contention for a No. 1 seed and -- again, for now -- out of the Chicago sub-regional.

Ohio State will go through its coronation ceremony as Big Ten champs later today, but first there is the little matter of facing Wisconsin.   The Badgers are suddenly thrust into 1-seed contention, but would have to win out.  They could have three wins over the Buckeyes if they do so.

The other big game in the Big Ten saw Michigan complete the season sweep of Michigan State.   Despite their 16-13 record, there was still room for Sparty in the bracket in one of the First Four games.  They better do something in Indianapolis though if they hope to stay there.

That may still be true of the Wolverines also.  Just because they beat MSU twice doesn't mean they are safe. 

Also, in the ACC, Clemson knocked off Virginia Tech.   That created a space at the bottom of the bracket for the Tigers, but I believe the Hokies still have a better profile.

Which brings me to today's selection/seeding lesson -- head-to-head isn't decisive.  It is possible for Michigan St to get selected and Michigan left out for for the Spartans to be higher seeded, despite the season sweep by Michigan.  Teams get judged on their entire seasons.  Not just one or two games, as in the case of head-to-head, or even two-thirds, as in the case of conference performance.

Clemson is another example.  The Tigers beat both Boston College and Virginia Tech, but both at home.  They didn't have to travel to either place.  Clemson had a better day when it played each of those teams, but has not has as good a season overall, and that is how those teams are judged.

Louisville fans have also been upset to see the Cards seeded behind Syracuse despite a win over the Orange and being ahead in the conference standings before yesterday's loss at West Virginia.   Syracuse had a much better overall profile though.

Speaking of meaningless conference standings, Alabama picked up a much-needed win over Georgia to keep it's slim at-large hopes alive.  The Tide is going to need to do some serious damage in Atlanta to have any realistic shot at an at-large bid.

Washington lost at home again late last night, this time to USC.   The Huskies will face in-state rival Washington State in the conference tournament.  The Cougars swept UW this season.

Nobody's case for seeding or selection is done yet.  The conference tournaments will certainly have a impact.  Many teams in the middle of the major conference still have a lot of work yet to do.

One more bid will go out later today.  Missouri State looks to make its first tournament appearance since 1999 when it faces sixth-seeded Indiana State in the Missouri Valley final on CBS.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.


Since: Mar 7, 2011
Posted on: March 7, 2011 10:51 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

I do not see why Clemson is not part of your field. They finished 4th in the ACC; beat Florida State, VaTech and Boston College, doesn't matter where the game is played, Clemson beat them.  Also, look at the loses to UNC and Duke all were very close and gave themselves chances to win in all games played against them.
Also, look at how this team has improved with a new coach through the year, in the last 20 games they are 14 - 6, with 3 of the losses coming to Duke (1) and UNC (2). They are deserving and it would be ashame if they are left out of the NCAA Tournament behind teams that they finished ahead of and BEAT in the ACC conference.

Since: Apr 6, 2009
Posted on: March 7, 2011 10:07 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

Another to chew on

Since: Sep 7, 2006
Posted on: March 7, 2011 4:04 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

Whoa there, are you going to totally disregard Colorado's terrible losses?  Just leave them out to make your point?  Losses to Harvard, Georgia, Iowa State....and San Francisco?  I'm a UM fan, so I'll argue for them.  Lost to Wisconsin on a banked 3 pt shot ...played very well at OSU, took Kansas to OT, and was very close with Syracuse at the beginning of the season when they were playing their best b-ball.  UM is a young team, but has played very well at the end of the year....they shouldn't even be on the "bubble" at this point.

Since: Nov 3, 2006
Posted on: March 7, 2011 7:04 am

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

Does it mean anything that Colorado is 10-12 versus teams with an RPI above 200???? They have seven wins against teams with RPI's 296 or higher.
Plus you make comments like (illinois)  Beat North Carolina "but couldn't beat UNC today" fact is they beat them.
Go look at the RPI breakdown for Colorado and it is not good

Since: Oct 10, 2008
Posted on: March 6, 2011 11:36 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

Jerry Palm wrote.......

The other big game in the Big Ten saw complete the season sweep of   Despite their 16-13 record, there was still room for Sparty in the bracket in one of the First Four games.  They better do something in Indianapolis though if they hope to stay there

Teams get judged on their entire seasons.  Not just one or two games, as in the case of head-to-head, or even two-thirds, as in the case of conference performance

I'll run with both the entire season and conference performance on Michigan St. I'll compare the Sparty's, Michigan and Illinois against Colorado of the Big 12. Before I get into that, I just want to mention that the 4th place team (Michigan) in the Big 10 has a 19-12 overall record and a 9-9 conference record. Makes me wonder how strong the Big 10 really is. I see only 3 teams deserving of a tourney bid if the selection committee picks were today.

I am going to compare season resume's on Michigan St., Michigan, Illinois vs Colorado. I will use notable wins and losses.

Michigan St. (17-13/9-9) "play-in game"

wins: Wisconsin and Washington. Beat Wisc by 3 pts (1st game) and lost by 20 points. Only ranked team win. (today's rankings)
losses: Texas, Duke, UConn, Syracuse, Ohio St  and Purdue 2 games) Just like last year, they can't beat the quality teams in non-conf play. To me, there more like an NIT team.

Michigan (19-12/9-9) 11th seed

wins: Clemson, Utah and Oakland. No wins over ranked teams in today's rankings
losses: Kansas, Syracuse, Purdue, Ohio St (2 games) and Wisconsin (2 games)

Illinois (19-12/9-9) 9th seed

wins: Gonzaga, Wisconsin and UNC. Couldn't beat UNC today.
losses: Texas and Missouri. They even lost to a 7-24/2-16 Illinois-Chicago.

Colorado (19-12/8-8) Not seeded or in "play-in game"

wins: Texas (a game that Mich St and Illinois lost) beat Missouri ( another game Illinois lost) also wins over K-State and Colorado St. (3 wins against teams in todays rankings.
losses: New Mexico, Missouri, Tx A&M and Kansas (2 games)

I ask you this Jerry Palm....Who has the better resume'? btw.....In non-conf play, Big 12 has 5 wins, and Big 10 has 0 wins.

Note: You give Villanova a #7 seed. Are you aware that they have only 5 wins in the past 7 weeks? (14 games)

1. Syracuse- during that 6-8 losing streak
2. Marquette- record of 7-9 in last 16 conf games. Wins against Depaul, S Fla, Seton Hall, Providence, a struggling UConn team. They even lost to Seton Hall.
3. Seton Hall
4. Depaul- by 2 pts in OT. It took Villanova a 3 pt shot to tie in regulation
5. W. Virginia- Good win.

You put Missouri in as an 8 seed so they face ND in round 2, but Villanova as a 7 seed to avoid the #1 seeds in the 2nd round.

Oh! the love for the Big 10 and Big East!

Since: Oct 5, 2006
Posted on: March 6, 2011 4:51 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

You drop BYU from a #1 seed to a #4 seed based on one player lost for the season whose name is not Freddette?  Get real.  The three losses are to UCLA and New Mexico on the road...  an early loss to a UCLA team thatr should be in the tourney and ANY team in the country, every team in your bracket, every team in the almighy Big East could drop a loss in the Pit.  So this leaves a bad loss at home to the same New Mexico team within hours of a huge emotional event...  Did you watch the game????

Guess the question is, should BYU win the MWC tourney -- where do you seed them?  If they lose to SDSU in the title game (meaning they still beat them 2 or 3 games) where do you seed both teams?  And what if Colorado State fares better (as I think they will) than UNLV next week, do you seed them in the tourney instead or take 4 teams?  CSU should be in -- maybe a play-in game or low seed, but they are good enough to make the 32 or even Sweet 16.  New Mexico isn't a bad team either.

Since: Sep 2, 2007
Posted on: March 6, 2011 4:49 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

I think you need to look a little harder at USC.  I will concede some bad losses, but if they won every game they "should" have and lost every game they "should" have, then they would be in the same boat that they are now, but with a lousy 2-7 record vs. the RPI Top-50 like all the other bubble teams are.  I find it hard to believe that when the committee is choosing from these teams that they could pick a team with only 2 wins over the RPI Top-50, both at home, over a team that has a winning record vs. the Top-50, including two road wins.  How many non Top-20 teams have winning records vs. the RPI Top-50?  I know USC is the only team in the Pac-10 with a winning record against the best in the nation, the teams that .  This is a salient and significant stat in my eyes.

Again, I understand the bad losses and there is no excuse other than any team without their starting point guard would probably struggle, especially when the replacement is a 5'7 freshman who had only played 4 or 5 games at that point, but this is a tournament and you would probably want to include the teams that have a chance to advance and clearly USC has demonstrated they can beat anybody, anywhere.  The lost on a last-second 3-pointer AT Kansas when Kansas had a 64-game home winning streak or whatever and took Washington to OT in their first matchup.  One FT made in either of those games, or both, and they are 6-3 or 7-2 vs. the RPI Top-50.  I heard Jay Bilas and Bob Knight agree yesterday that a team that loses a game that close, is not really any different than the team winning it and the committee should think that way.  USC is 5-1 in their last 6 with wins over Arizona (RPI 15) and at Washington (RPI 34) in those games.  USC has two better wins in their last 4 games than any other team on this so-called bubble has in their entire season!  I would still say that going 1-1 with a loss vs. RPI 125 and then a win over RPI 15 is better than doing it the other way around and USC should not be counted down for doing so.  Right now, USC would be favored on a neutral court over every one of the teams you have on this page and that is the true gauge for who is the "better" team at this moment, which is the only thing that should be considered.  Thank you for your time.

Since: Aug 16, 2009
Posted on: March 6, 2011 3:32 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

I was tweeting Harvard-Princeton score updates last night since no one televised the game.  And, yes, they should both get in.  Minnesota, Boston College, Alabama, Va-Tech, Washington State, Baylor, etc......wasn't the expanded field to provide more opportunities for mid-majors?  All we hear about are more power-Six conference teams.   What a joke!

CAA should get 4 teams in, Ivy League 2, WCC, MtnWest, and others should all recieve multiple bids

Since: Jan 5, 2010
Posted on: March 6, 2011 2:41 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

I completely agree, Harvard and Princeton should both get in if Princeton wins the play-in game. So many of the "bubble" teams are an absolute joke.

Since: Dec 3, 2006
Posted on: March 6, 2011 1:49 pm

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

JERRY--  Syracuse has "MUCH BETTER PROFILE" ???      
; Really ???   Also--  Yes won head to head .. Still higher Conf.standing (tie breaker) 3rd seed in BE T..  & Aside from all this -- CUSE IS NOT a #2..  Over -- UofL, Byu, UNc, Pudue..etc... & IF   Cuse  Were a #2.. UofL Can't Be dropped to 4... YOU SEE THAT MUCH DIFFERENCE???   Unreal---

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