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BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

Posted on: November 8, 2011 10:26 am
 
Most of the comments on this week's bowl picks, besides questioning merely having Michigan in the BCS (one more loss and all this is moot), question why the Wolverines get in ahead of Oklahoma State, which would unquestionably be the higher ranked team.  To understand that, you have to understand the BCS bowl selection process.

You also have to understand what bowls are looking for when creating their matchups.  They want the best possible game they can get, and bowls measure that primarily in terms of ticket sales and TV viewers.  Things like rankings, records and conference standings are secondary considerations at best.  That's why there are so many bowl selection rules, like the one that automatically qualifies the highest-rated non-AQ team for the BCS, or the ACC rule that protects a team from being skipped over by a bowl for another team that won more than one fewer conference games.  If bowls could be trusted to go in conference standing/ranking order, those rules wouldn't be necessary.

The BCS has ten spots.  Six are reserved for the AQ conference champions.  In my projection, those are:

Clemson (ACC), Cincinnati (Big East), Wisconsin (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Stanford (Pac-12), LSU (SEC).

There are also four at-large spots, but two teams automatically qualify for those in my projection:

Alabama, as the highest-rated AQ non-champion, ranked in the top four.
Boise State, as the highest-rated non-AQ conference champion, ranked in the top 12.

That only leaves two spots open.  The rest of my at-large pool contains:

Arkansas, Georgia, Houston, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Virginia Tech.

Note that with LSU and Alabama automatically qualified for the BCS and a two-team limit per conference, Arkansas and Georgia cannot be chosen.

The first thing that happens is that the top two teams go into the title game, and the other contracted conference champions get put in their bowls.  So, we start with:

Title game: LSU vs Stanford
Rose: Wisconsin vs ?
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs ?
Sugar: ? vs ?
Orange: Clemson vs ?

The next step is that the bowls that lost conference champions to the title game get to choose replacement.  They always choose teams from their conference tie-in if one is available.  The Sugar chooses first because it lost the No. 1 team, and takes Alabama.  The Rose picks Oregon to replace Stanford.  Now, we have:

Title game: LSU vs Stanford
Rose: Wisconsin vs Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs ?
Sugar: Alabama vs ?
Orange: Clemson vs ?

Boise State and Cincinnati still have to go somewhere, so only one at-large spot is open.

The Fiesta gets the first choice of selections for its game in this year's rotation, followed by the Sugar and Orange.  The Fiesta can chose from Boise State, Cincinnati, Houston, Michigan, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech.

Michigan blows all of those other teams out of the water in terms of fan base and marquee value.  Not even close.  Also, Michigan's fan base would not be jaded by a recent run of success, as sometimes happens with other schools. 

However, two other choices would be much higher ranked:

Oklahoma State isn't a good choice because conference mate Oklahoma is already there.
Boise State would be OK, but the Fiesta has had the Broncos both times it has been in the BCS (including one memorable meeting with the Sooners), and would probably prefer to leave them for someone else.

So, while the Fiesta might go with Boise, but I think the allure of Michigan will be too good to pass up.

The Sugar gets the next pick, and with only Boise or Cincinnati to choose from, the Broncos are an easy choice.  The Bearcats end up in the Orange, and Oklahoma State and its 11-1 record drop out.

Them's the breaks.  Note that if either of the other bowls had first choice instead of the Fiesta, Oklahoma State would almost certainly be that choice.  Also, if the Fiesta did decide to choose Boise, OSU would almost certainly end up in the Sugar.
Comments

Since: Nov 9, 2011
Posted on: November 9, 2011 8:10 am
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

really?? I'ts hard to even dignify a comment regarding this so called journalist's knowledge regarding ok state...has he ever been to any of the "lesser" bowl games that the pokes have been going to? They consistantly bring 25-30k fans to "no name" bowls!  The cowboy faithful would show up in groves for a BCS Bowl little alone the NC! There would be so much orange in the stadium the oppising team would feel like they're on the road!


But even more ridiculous is how the "national garbage media" have all written the pokes out of not only the NC game but also any BCS bowl! Has anyone really watched us? First, stats are for losers! only three of the cowboys games have been close in the 4th qtr (really only two, tamu and k state) which means teams are rolling up garbage stats in the 4th qtr over our 2nd and 3rd teamers, underclassman...the baylor game is a perfect example, it was 49-3 going into 4th qtr when rgiii and co. get over 245yds and 20 points! the same holds true for a handful of others...kansas? well we were down 0-7 5 min into first qtr, it was 56-7 at HALf!! 56 points in 25 mins??? weeden, blackmon and co had their pads off before the 2nd qtr was over! our young newcommers played 2nd half and yes, ku gained some yards and points against us. Tulsa game? same deal...i could go on and on...stats dont tell the story. when your in a defensive minded league like the sec, the starters play most all of the game do to the lack of "blowout" victories...not the same here! 


lsu might lose to arkansas, stanford could lose oregon etc....why in the world would the bunch from norman, ok even be in the discussion? they lost to tx tech! at home!! and the game was not as close as the 41-38 final score...ou was outplayed for 3 1/2 qtrs before their late rally fell short!


the pokes from stillwater are for real and karma is a bitch! not a single osu fan has forgotten how les miles lied thru his teeth by interviewing for the lsu gig while supposedly "preparing" my pokes for the alamo bowl against the other osu! they day after we get blown out by the buckeyes, he bolts for lsu!!! did i mention anything about karma??? well it and the pokes will show up in new orleans come jan 9th and put it all on the line! les will understand the term and the rest of the country will see just how good these cowboys are!


There is a new sherriff in the big 12(10) and neither our local media or national media is happy about it! get over it       



Since: Oct 15, 2011
Posted on: November 9, 2011 7:22 am
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

Ill got in a BSC bowls a few years ago over many 10-2 teams



Since: Nov 17, 2007
Posted on: November 9, 2011 6:31 am
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

Michigan blows all of those other teams out of the water in terms of fan base and marquee value.
Really? Time and time again we hear that urban legend and time and time again it is proven false. Lots of schools have enormous fan bases and marquee values and fill the stadiums often better than UM does.
 



Since: Mar 24, 2009
Posted on: November 9, 2011 1:53 am
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

lol    how do they get to 10-2?

 




Since: Mar 24, 2009
Posted on: November 9, 2011 1:50 am
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

How do these so called writers even get to write this crap. Michigan couldnt handle Iowa, lol ...while they have the easiest schedule in the big 10 they still have to play nebraska and ohio st and what the rest of the football world knows except this turkey is they have no defense. Michigan playing in a bcs bowl...lol, you are high dude, go take another toke and blue and maze turns to indiana red and white.  wow



Since: Jan 4, 2009
Posted on: November 9, 2011 1:12 am
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

Michigan??  Michigan??  Michigan??/   What, you didn't watch them play last Saturday against Iowa??  Every BCS bowl team would love to play Michigan.  They're guaranteed to lose at least one game on the rest of their schedule.  A 8-3 team in BCS game??  What are you thinking of?   OK...I keep forgetting...its a toss up between "would I rather play Michigan or Cincinnati in the BCS?  But then Cincy will probably lose two more games.  Hey, we could have Michigan play Cincy...now there would be a game of the ...well, whatever afternoon they were playing.   

Isn't there a requirement that teams have a defense to play in a BCS bowl game??

The NCAA has become a joke in regards to football.  They say they have the best interest of the student - athletes in mind.  FALSE.  They say they want tradition.  FALSE.  Its all about the money...yet they don't want the players to get any.  Why else would Boise State be joining the Big Least??

If Michigan gets in this game then it will be totally apparent to everyone what a fiasco college football has become.  

If the NCAA had any cojones, they'd call everyone in and say...ok, we're going to set up a regional system that relies on traditional / natural rivalries.  Let's set up conferences that make sense.  But the sports writers and broadcasters just go along with it.  You're all jokes......




Since: Nov 8, 2011
Posted on: November 8, 2011 11:02 pm
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

Great argument backed up by facts and common sense. Maybe you should be writing for CBS instead of this joker



Since: Nov 8, 2011
Posted on: November 8, 2011 10:57 pm
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

I signed up for this site just to tell you that you're an idiot. Look at Michigan's schedule and tell me with a straight face that U of M is going to win every game. I'm a Wolverine fan and I'll tell you there is no chance of that happening. Most likely they go 2-2 in their last 4 games. Big blue will get there, but they're far from a great team right now.



Since: Aug 27, 2006
Posted on: November 8, 2011 7:21 pm
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

Not many would want to see an LSU-Alabama rematch, but many would love a Boise St.-Oklahoma rematch. Then, the choice would be obvious of selecting Oklahoma St. vs. Alabama as the nation's best confernce (this year Big 12) would be matched up against one of the 2 best defensive teams we've seen in a long time in Alabama.



Since: Oct 15, 2011
Posted on: November 8, 2011 6:57 pm
 

BCS selection process: Michigan vs Oklahoma St

boy there is a lot of stupid people on this board 
do they even read the article

all he is saying michigan will not go to the big ten title game , the winner of that title game will go to the rose bowl , and michigan will at 10-2  be ranked in the bsc high enough to be given an at large birth

you might not agree with it for reasons as such

michigan will not make it to 10-2  ( if they do though , they will be at least in the top 10 bcs )

osu , or boise state will get the pick not matter what


BUT TO SAY ITS NOT POSSIBLE ACCOUNT THEY DID NOT WIN THERE DIVISION , OR MAKE IT TO THE TITLE GAME IS PLAIN STUPID

READ SOME OF THESE COMMENTS , DO THESE PEOPLE EVEN FOLLOW COLLEGE FOOTBALL , HOW THE SELECTION PROCESS WORKS         
;     &nbs
p;


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com