Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
Blog Entry

What if....?

Posted on: November 22, 2011 10:32 am
 
The only sure thing in the BCS title chase entering the second-to-last weekend of the season is chaos.  Well, and that LSU will play for the title if it finishes 13-0.

But, what if....

...Alabama beats Auburn?  Barring other upsets, Alabama is likely to play for the title too, but it's not a sure thing.  Voters could get to December 4th and decide they don't want a rematch and/or do want to reward a conference champion.  Is that likely?  It wouldn't seem so, and the only team I could imagine voters going for otherwise would be current human poll No. 6 Oklahoma State.  It's going to be tough for the Cowboys to catch Alabama with Virginia Tech and Stanford ahead of them in the polls though.

...Arkansas beats LSU?  Well, assuming Alabama beats Auburn also, the SEC West falls into a three-way tiebreaker, which in this case, would be decided by BCS standings and head-to-head.  The lowest-rated team of the three in this coming Sunday's rankings would be eliminated, and then head-to-head between the other two would decide it.

So, traditional voting patterns would indicate LSU would drop to third (he who loses last, loses worst).  That would give Alabama the division crown.  You could also make a case for ordering them Arkansas, LSU, Alabama (they beat each other, of course, but Bama's win came at home, while the others won on the road).  That would give Arkansas the West title.  I can't imagine Arkansas winning and still being third, but if that happened, LSU is still the West champion.

In any event, whichever team won would play for the BCS title as a 12-1 SEC champion.  That team's opponent is more uncertain, but it could be one of its divison foes, or again, Oklahoma State.

...Georgia wins the SEC?  I don't think it's a difficult concept to accept that the top two teams in the country could be in the same conference.  But, if that is truly the case, don't you think one of them could manage to win the league?

If the Bulldogs pull it off, expect them to shoot way up the rankings.  They might end up even being the top rated SEC team in the human polls (assuming they beat Georgia Tech this week).  In 2001, two-loss, Big 12 champion Colorado finished ahead of one-loss Nebraska in the polls, but NU ended up in the BCS title game anyway because the polls were only 25% of the formula back then.
In any event, this is the best case scenario for an Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech (if the voters still love them) to get into the title game.  I doubt very seriously that we would have two non-champion SEC teams playing for the BCS title.  However, if that does happen, Georgia still would get to go the Sugar Bowl as the SEC titlist.  That situation is the one exception to the two-team-per-conference limit.

Comments

Since: Sep 3, 2007
Posted on: November 23, 2011 10:10 am
 

What if....?

HogAuthority:

Hey I know you are an Arky fan, but, c'mon... do you *really* believe that LSU is underestimating Arkansas this year?  By your last paragraph, you sound like you are the one underestimating.  Personally, I think this is going to be a great game, and I am very concerned over whether LSU's usual game plan to load the box and let the secondary man up, is going to work against Arkansas' speedy and smart receivers.  I think it will depend on whether your front line will be able to keep LSU defenders from getting to Wilson.  We shall see.

The over-under is 52.5.  My prediction is that if it is over, Arkansas wins.  If it is under, LSU is on top.

Geaux Tigers. 



Since: Jan 8, 2010
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:39 am
 

What if....?

I do feel like the human polls are influenced by the Bowls teams are located close to. I'm a Bama fan, and I feel like a LSU/Bama rematch would be a mistake for college football as a whole. The BCS was a decent system when it was invented, but it has run its course. For college football not to try and improve its system is crazy. Many times in other sports the 2 best teams play prior to the championship. That's just the way it is. It makes for great memorable games...but it does not constitute a rematch. When Red Sox and Yankees were 2 best teams did everyone want to see them in the WS?? No. When Cowboys and Niners were 2 best teams did they play in Super Bowl?? No. Remember Kentucky/Duke in the final 4...best game of that tourn, but it was not NC. There seems to be less arguement around entities that use a playoff!



Since: Jun 20, 2009
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:38 am
 

What if....?

If you don't want to see an LSU vs bama rematch, don't blame the teams or the SEC. Blame the rest of the country and conferences for not stepping up.

<br />Geaux Tigers<br /><br /><br />




Since: Dec 13, 2006
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:25 am
 

What if....?

I agree, wouldn't it be great to see an SEC team play in New York outdoors  (like the Super Bowl) for a title?   They always get to play in tropical conditions against teams that are better prepared for the elements in big bow games.  Remember Miami's 5 national titles, if memory serves me as correct they won 4 in the Orange Bowl. 



Since: Oct 14, 2011
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:24 am
 

What if....?

HogAuthority - the only defense the Razorbacks have played so far that is anything like the LSU defense is 'Bama...and we all know what happened in that game. You point out that the LSU offense is #73 nationally, but a lot of that is because they don't have to get a lot of yards to score. The defense and special teams put them in a good field position. With the downhill running game, LSU doesn't need a lot of passing yards in order to score. If you discount the 'Bama game (because your defense isn't anywhere close to what the Tide has), the Tigers are averaging over 40 points. Given your defense's propensity to allow scores, I'd imagine that it would be a reasonable assumption for LSU to score that average in this game. Therefore, if a person allows that the 'Backs will score your assumed 28 points, the Tigers still are kicking butt. HOWEVER...My suggestion is to have a good tryptophan induced sleep Thursday night and dream about the game, because that's the only place your Razorbacks will score 28 points.
@GoDogBeGone,

Ignorance is bliss and in your case dangerous.  You have obviously not watched the Razorbacks play many games.  I would assume a Georgia Bulldog would know better but then their are so many damn dogs in the conference you might not.

You can't have it both ways and factor in the impact of Alabama game against Ark, but discount the impact of the game for LSU stats?  Arkansas the #1 offense in the SEC will be the best offense LSU has seen all year.  Better than WVA and Oregon.  Oregon put up 27 and WVA put up 21.  HOG will put up 28.

If you look at Hogs defense last 6 games we are playing like top 15 .   We had 7 starters out of Bama game every one loves to site.  We make no excuse we lost.  The wheels came off due to fake FG for TD, punt return for TD and pick 6  for TD early so the game was not competive 2nd half; but not so much because Bama was that much better.  We gave Bama 21 points.  If you go by teams now, Bama barely beat MSU and we blew MSU out.

What QB LSU has faced do you possibly think is better than Tyler Wilson? Most Hogs fans will tell Wilson is upgrade over Ryan Mallett on pace to break all of his records.  Wilson is mobile wherea Mallet was not.

It is the same voodoo mentality of Tiger fans every year that underestimate the Razorbacks. LSU best be prepared to display a passing game because Hogs will use speed to the gaps on defense.  Offensively, they just can't wait to see this man to man coverage.  Tyler will have a field day. The no TD pass streak LSU has will be broken in first quarter.



Since: Jul 29, 2009
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:17 am
 

What if....?

Holy smoke do we need a 16 team playoff. no matter what the circumstance year after year it's a mess. A popularity contest. When I started watching football as a child it was all about the pros and then I started to see them as over paid egomaniacts only in it for the money. That started my love affair with college ball. Now this nonsense witht the BSS (bcs) I refer to it as this Bull **** System. Is it time to forget about football and just stick to Hockey and College hoops?



Since: Dec 4, 2010
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:13 am
 

What if....?

The "human poll" factors trump the "computer" third in the voting.  What could be better for the BCS Champ game IN NEW ORLEANS than LSU/Bama?  I repeat..IN NEW ORLEANS.  As long as the BCS Champ is held in the SOUTH (arguably Zona) the SEC will always have an advantage. The SEC "fan base" doesn't have to travel far there.  Play the game in LA or Detroit and see what happens to the SEC.  I think their "allure" would suffer....THAT would be reflected int he human voting.



Since: Nov 6, 2006
Posted on: November 23, 2011 9:01 am
 

What if....?

Ok, to get back to the "what if" aspect of this article (Not that the endless SEC v. the world stuff isn't hilarious).

Here is a real way out branch of scenarios. The key to each of these is that Arkansas beats LSU and then loses to Georgia in the SEC championship, Auburn beats Alabama and Oklahoma beats OSU. This leaves a small number of one loss teams in play, including LSU (depending on how bad the loss to Ark. is, shouldn't drop too far), VT, Stanford and Boise State. And of course, undefeated Houston.

Scenario One : Oregon loses to Oregan State - Stanford wins the PAC12 and becomes the number one team. Most likely opponent would be LSU, with VT a longshot. Stanford would have less of an argument if it doesn't win the PAC12, so the Oregon loss is needed.

Scenario Two : Stanford loses to ND. In this case, VT becomes the likely number one with LSU again the most likely opponent.

Scenario Three : Stanford loses to ND, VT loses to VA or to Clemson in title game. Now LSU once again becomes the number one team with Boise State becoming the most likely number two.

Scenario Four : Stanford, VT and Boise all lose one more game. Title game LSU v. Houston.

Ok, admittedly non of these are likely, but it's a branch of possibilities at least amusing to think about. 



Since: Aug 16, 2006
Posted on: November 23, 2011 8:56 am
 

What if....?

HogAuthority - the only defense the Razorbacks have played so far that is anything like the LSU defense is 'Bama...and we all know what happened in that game. You point out that the LSU offense is #73 nationally, but a lot of that is because they don't have to get a lot of yards to score. The defense and special teams put them in a good field position. With the downhill running game, LSU doesn't need a lot of passing yards in order to score. If you discount the 'Bama game (because your defense isn't anywhere close to what the Tide has), the Tigers are averaging over 40 points. Given your defense's propensity to allow scores, I'd imagine that it would be a reasonable assumption for LSU to score that average in this game. Therefore, if a person allows that the 'Backs will score your assumed 28 points, the Tigers still are kicking butt. HOWEVER...My suggestion is to have a good tryptophan induced sleep Thursday night and dream about the game, because that's the only place your Razorbacks will score 28 points.




Since: Nov 9, 2010
Posted on: November 23, 2011 8:02 am
 

What if....?

If you don't win your conference, you should not play in the big game.  


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com