Blog Entry

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Posted on: November 27, 2011 9:19 am
Edited on: November 27, 2011 4:57 pm
 
There shouldn't be very much movement in this week's BCS standings

Arkansas fell to tenth in the coaches' poll and ninth in the Harris poll.  The Hogs will still be pretty high overall this week, but outside the top five.

Alabama's lead over No. 3 Virginia Tech is 120 points - or more than two points per voter.  That means the Hokies are more like the fourth-rated team than the third-rated team.  Stanford is only two points behind Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma St is another 44 points back of that.  It's hard to imagine voters voting one of those three teams up suddenly next week.

The bowl projections have been updated.  Michigan is still slotted in the Sugar Bowl, although the Wolverines will need to get into the top 14 to qualify.  They project 16th this week.  The projections assume losses by Georgia and Oklahoma, and they should also pass whichever team loses the Big Ten title game.

One thing that baffles me is the notion that we will have an LSU-Alabama rematch for the BCS title no matter what happens next week.  That's silly.  There is no justification for rematching those teams if Georgia wins the SEC.  If there is going to be a rematch at that point, it should be Georgia-LSU, not Alabama-LSU.  Alabama would have won nothing.  Not the division, not the league, nothing.  I realize that is true even if LSU wins the SEC, but it's a lot easier to make the case that the Tide is the second best team in the league (and country) if only one team was more successful than them in conference play.




Category: NCAAF
Comments

Since: Jun 5, 2011
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:20 pm
 

BS Sham-pionship game

I won't be watching.  Like almost everyone in the country outside of Dixie, I don't give a rat's petootie what happens if two SEC teams play each other for a so-called "National Championship."  It's really what the BCS deserves, though.  Hopefully, the matchup will be such a joke and so many teams will have a legitimate gripe that they will finally have a playoff to determine a true champion.  Oh, about that playoff: conference champions and independents only.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:09 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Did I mention they lost at home. Also I remember Michigan being denied because they had no conference championship game and so Florida killed tOSU in the National Championship because they actually won their conference. So by that arguement Okla St should not even be included in the talk if history and precedence mean anything. Bottom line, the BCS still sucks, period. It is always a media/ratings champion.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:05 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Everyone knows the year Georgia was denied due to not being division winners and not being conference champs, that they were by far the best team in the country. The finished #2 to LSU. Played six ranked teams including its loss to Tennessee which was ranked 12th at the time and they lost at Neyland. Alabama doesn't deserve the shot, they lost at home played 3 ranked teams, and have a home loss.



Since: Oct 21, 2007
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:00 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Will - my bad - I was thinking you meant Texas and not the Vols and yes UGA got beat soundly by them. The issue was that UGA did not lose but people decided because UGA did not play in the SEC Championship game that they did not deserve to be there. You cannot have it one way one year and another way the next year. I did not have a problem with UGA not playing for the BCS that year but for the same reason, Bama should not be able to play for it this year. The bottom line is that Bama lost on their own home field to LSU




Since: Nov 27, 2011
Posted on: November 27, 2011 4:56 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

I agree that the LSU-Alabama rematch is not definite by any means.  It only makes sense for there to be a rematch if the two teams in question are conclusively the best in the country, that they’ve obviously distanced themselves from the rest of the pack.  Some fans (and commentators) believe that’s absolutely the case this year.  But many of us, likely including many of the Harris/Coaches Poll voters still want to see what happens this coming weekend. 

I figure there are three broad scenarios:

1).  Affirmation of a rematch and the BCS process (and a playoff/chaos supporter’s nightmare)
 - Oklahoma beats Oklahoma St.
 - LSU kills Georgia
 - Va. Tech loses to Clemson or struggles to win
 - And for poots and giggles, Houston loses to Southern Miss
In this scenario, Oklahoma St. is out of the picture.  And with a blowout victory over Georgia, LSU reinforces their mystique along with the fact that they and Alabama are a cut above everyone else. 

Result: The two teams are picked for a rematch; most observers agree that everything worked out in the end; and I stick a fork in my own eye.

2). A rematch is still likely, but not without some controversy
 - Oklahoma St wins over Oklahoma
 - LSU beats Georgia in a competitive game
 - Va. Tech beats Clemson soundly
 - Houston wins the C-USA title
Now we have a little competition for Alabama.  First off, if Georgia can give LSU a game, it does subtly suggest that there might not be as much space between LSU/Alabama and the rest of the country as previously thought.  Oklahoma St. will be a conference champion (of the highest rated conference in the computers, no less), and you can hear the narrative starting to build:

“Alabama didn’t win their conference or even their division.  LSU already beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa…and the game was kinda ugly.  Oklahoma St.’s only loss was the day their women’s basketball coach died.”

Va. Tech’s ACC crown is less impressive, but still a point of conversation since they vanquished the only team that beat them.  And Houston’s undefeated record gets them some sympathy as well.  If we’re talking one-loss non-conference champions, Alabama is certainly above Stanford and Boise St., but those two teams will have their supporters too.

Result: Likely still an LSU-Alabama rematch, but Oklahoma St. makes it much closer than expected, moving up to #3 in the polls and #2 in the computers.  And the call for a playoff gets louder.

3). Utter chaos
 - Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma
 - Georgia upsets LSU
 - Va. Tech wins convincingly over Clemson
 - Houston wins the C-USA title
Now all bets are off.  A lot of commentators are saying that LSU-Alabama would still be picked 1 and 2, but I’m not so sure.  There would be the same Oklahoma St. arguments from above, but those arguments would now apply to both Alabama and LSU.  And the loss to Georgia would certainly shoot down the notion that either of those teams are far and away the best in the country.  And now more teams come into the equation (I’m not sold on all of these arguments, but they all can be made)
1). Va. Tech also has the conference champion status over both LSU/Alabama
2). When comparing losses, Stanford’s to Oregon is probably better than LSU’s to Georgia
3). And Boise St beat Georgia, who beat LSU
4). Finally, now Houston is the only undefeated team in the country

Result: I think Alabama gets left out in the cold.  Oklahoma St. possibly moves up to #1 in the computers, and the voters realize that they actually won a conference title.  And they also remember that LSU beat Alabama back on November 5th.  Chaos reigns and no one is convinced we got the right match-up.  And the BCS implodes.

Let’s all root for scenario #3 next weekend.




Since: Oct 21, 2007
Posted on: November 27, 2011 4:56 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Will - wrong - your memory is flawed - UGA went to the Sugar Bowl and pounded a previously undefeated Hawaii team into submission and their all-star Qb was gone by the middle of the 3rd quarter.



Since: Aug 24, 2009
Posted on: November 27, 2011 4:25 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

You are hilarious - the idea that OSU's loss to UNRANKED ISU somehow is less of a loss than Alabama's loss to then/now #1 LSU is ridiculous. You embarass OSU and sound more and more like undeserving Noise State. Still, it all becomes moot when Oklahoma spanks you "again" - you'll be in second place but only in Oklahoma.



Since: Oct 5, 2006
Posted on: November 27, 2011 3:18 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Wouldn't it be something if Georgia did somehow beat LSU and the BCS still put 2 teams that didn't win their conference in the Championship Game?  I realize that's a big IF, but stranger things have happened.  Texas Tech beating Oklahoma..Iowa State beating Okla State



Since: Oct 3, 2009
Posted on: November 27, 2011 2:42 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

The argument in '07 was that Georgia did not even win their own conference, so they shouldn't play for the NC.  So why are the same people now saying LSU can lose to UGA and still go to the NC game?? Who said this, well Herbstreet, Corse, everyone on ESPN, Les Miles even said it.  BCS is a joke.



Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: November 27, 2011 2:29 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

What we are all forgetting is that OSU nor Stanford will be playing in their conference title game. The Big 12 did away with theirs. The SEC has asked for the plus 1 and the other conferences don't want it.


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